SUCCESSFUL FORECAST OF THE STRONG EARTHQUAKE Ì=7.3

in the SS Microplate Burma.

Earthquake on the north-west of Sumatra, on May 09, 2010, Ì7.3, was successfully predicted in Bulletin 002 and in Communication from April 02, 2010. Changes and updates Forecasts for the SS Burma Microplate. In the area of Yangon (the capital of Myanmar) possible strong earthquake with Ì=7.4-7.5.                                /May 10, 2010/

 

 

 

 

MONITORING AND FORECAST

SS Burma Microplate,

Subsystems North and South

Ìs≥6.6

 

 

 

SS  Burma Mjcroplate

Large cities: Port Blair, Sabang, Banda Aceh, Sinabang, Buket, Bassein, Rangoon.

Seismicity is caused by complex interaction of micro-plate Burma with the plate Indian Ocean in the West, with the Australian plate in the south, with the plate of Sunda in the east and with the Eurasian plate on the northeast. The seismic activity of Burma micro-plate is connected, in essence, with northeastern directed motion of Indian plate with the speed of 6 cm/yr with respect to the Burma and its subduction under the Burma micro-plate.

Last devastating earthquake is Nicobar on December 26, 2004, M=9.1 (depth of 30 km). 240000 people perished in essence from the tsunami.

 

 

SUCCESSFUL FORECAST, SS MICROPLATE BURMA, 7.3≤Ms7.8. Earthquake on the northwest of Sumatra ☼ occurred in the south SS Microplate Burma and it was successfully predicted in Bulletin 002 and in Communication April 2, 2010. The accuracy of forecast is visible in Fig.1 and 2.

in the Bulletin 002 of February 28 we gave a forecast: "The essential scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators is observed. If in the system the making more active of earthquake-indicators will be observed, then track can fall into the zone of the instability of strong earthquakes on the North Western extremity of Sumatra, where can occur M7.3 earthquake". In March-April 2010 occurred the expected activity in SS Microplate Burma. After the earthquake of March 30, 2010, M6.6 track  significantly raised and in Communication April 2, 2010 it was forecast, that the track can fall into the zone of instability  or Ñ (see Fig.1). Fig.2 shows a fragment of the preparation of an earthquake with M=7.3 on the track diagram, on the basis of which was given this forecast. It is evident from Fig.2 that the trajectory of the preparation of strong earthquake in March-April jumped and by May 9 approached the area of unstable for the zones  and Ñ, Fig.1:

                                          Ê=0.45W +  8.16           ïðè          W>16.90                              (1)

Thus, at the beginning of May in the northwest of Sumatra, near the zone Ñ was expected earthquake with M=7.3. The earthquake ☼ occurred in accordance with our forecast (see Fig.1). On May 9, 2010 the probability of M=7.3 earthquake in the system was Ð=31.64% (Pw=52.08% Pk=60.75%) (see Fig.3). Since February it grew by 5% (it was in February Ð=26.87%, Pw=49.00% Pk=54.84%).

 

 In the Communication, April 20, 2010 we have identified temporal and spatial connections between earthquakes in northern Sumatra in the contact zone SS Microplate Burma with SS Sumatra.

 Earthquake ☼ confirmed and completed the non-specific reverse process -

In 2004-2005 - NW-SE:    2004.12.26, Ì9.1→2005.03.28, Ì8.6→2005.04.10, Ì6.7

In 2009-2010 - SE-NW:    2009.09.30, Ì7.3→2010.04.06, Ì7.7→2010.05.09, Ì7.3

Marked red earthquake in southern SS Burma Microplate, blue - in the north of SS Sumatra.

 

Are given below update and clarify forecasts for SS Microplate Burma after ☼.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fig.2. Fragment of track diagram for SS Microplate Burma 7.3≤Ì<7.8. The trajectory of preparation of the strong earthquake with   M=7.3 (heavy red line) at beginning May. In March-April track was raised and at the beginning of May approached the unstable region for zones  and Ñ  (see Fig.1). Near the zone C was expected and occurred M7.3 earthquake

Fig.1. Microplate Burma (India). Controlled areas for SS Microplate Burma (M≥7.8) and subsystems North and South (M≥6.6). In the zone  À can be prepared the earthquake with M=7.8, in zone D earthquake with   M=7.4. Near the forecasted zone Ñ, on May 9 occurred the strong earthquake with Ì7.3. After this earthquake zones À1, À2, Â, Â1 and Ñ passed into the steady state.

Fig.4b. Dynamics of an increase probability of strong earthquake from M≥7.3 in the Subsystem North of Microplate Burma on May 10, 2010.  

Fig.4à. Dynamics of an increase probability of powerful earthquake from M≥7.8 in SS of Microplate Burma on May 10, 2010.  

Fig.3. Dynamics of an increase probability of strong earthquake from 7.3≤Ms<7.8 in the SS Microplate Burma on May 9, 2010. The March-April probability earthquakes with M=7.3 increased by 5%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FORECASTS

BIRMA Microplate - Northern SUMATRA (INDONESIA),Andaman-Nikobar Islands (INDIA),THAILAND,MYANMAR South, Ìs≥6.6  

FORECAST, Ìs≥7.8. Situation in the system not dangerous, trajectory has the high values of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators. With relative seismic calm, track to approach the danger zone in the second half of 2014. Strong earthquake with Ms=8.5 can be prepared in 2014 in zone A (see Fig.1), in region of the Andaman Islands, (Port of Blair, India). The inhabitants of the coastal countries of the north of the Indian Ocean within the next few years (until 2014) catastrophic earthquake, like the Nicobar 2004, and also tsunami does not threaten. On May 10 the probability of catastrophic earthquake is equal to Ð=21.48% (PW=37.83%, PK=56.79%)  (see Fig.4a). After the earthquake ☼ the probability jumped on 5%, but the forecasting time at some distance.    

PK=57%

PW=38%

Ð=21%

 

 

FORECAST, 7.0≤Ms<7.8. Earthquakes with 7.0≤Ìs<7.8 and tsunamis are not expected, Ð=0.

SUBSYSTEM NORTH,  FORECAST, 6.6≤Ms<7.0. Earthquakes with 6.6≤Ìs<7.0 and tsunamis are not expected, Ð=0.

SUBSYSTEM SOUTH, FORECAST, 6.6≤Ms<7.0. Earthquakes with 6.6≤Ìs<7.0 and tsunamis are not expected, Ð=0.

 

 

These forecasts show that the southern part SS Microplate Burma now discharged, in such a situation grows the risk of strong earthquake on the north of system, in the border region with SS Myanmar.

 

SUBSYSTEM NORTH, FORECAST, Ìs≥7.3. On January 11, 1895 near Rangoon the capital of Myanmar, which is now live about 5 mln. people, occurred earthquake with M=7.5. Our analysis shows that Subsystem North Microplate Burma partially responsible for the preparation of strong earthquakes in the south of Myanmar, including Rangoon (zone D in Fig.1). In zone D in 1930.05.05 near Bago occurred strong earthquake with M=7.3. Note that the Subsystem North Microplate Burma poorly defined. One seismic cycle for the earthquake 1930 here reliably was completed. At present track substantially exceeded the unstable region of this earthquake and it has the high values of cumulative energy and entropy. The probability of earthquake with M≥7.3 high, at May 10 equal to Ð=90.19% (PW=95.27%, PK=83.95% (see Fig.4b). Summarizing we can conclude that in the zone D, near Rangoon possible strong earthquake with M=7.4-7.5 with great destruction and loss of life.

 

 

 

PK=84%

PW=95%

Ð=90%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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☼ Earthquake on the north-west of Sumatra, Indonesia

2010.05.09  05:59:42  03.77N  96.05W  H=60 km  Ì=7.3  

Focal mechanism and intensity