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MONITORING AND FORECAST

SS Burma Microplate,

Subsystems North and South

SUCCESSFUL FORECAST OF THE MODERATE EARTHQUAKE

in the Subsystem the North of Microplate Burma.

Earthquake on the north of Andaman Islands, India, dated March 30, 2010, M6.6, were successfully predicted in Bulletin 002 (forecasts for SS Microplate Burma). Changes and the refinement of forecasts for SS Microplate Burma and subsystems after earthquake on March 30, 2010. /April 02, 2010/

SS Burma Mjcroplate

IV level (badly).
Length of 1800 km.
Depth 80 km.
Threshold magnitude 7.8.
Monitoring since 2004 года.
Predicted quakes 1.

Large cities: Port Blair, Sabang, Banda Aceh, Sinabang, Buket, Bassein, Rangoon.

Seismicity is caused by complex interaction of micro-plate Burma with the plate Indian Ocean in the West, with the Australian plate in the south, with the plate of Sunda in the east and with the Eurasian plate on the northeast. The seismic activity of Burma micro-plate is connected, in essence, with northeastern directed motion of Indian plate with the speed of 6 cm/yr with respect to the Burma and its subduction under the Burma micro-plate.

Last devastating earthquake is Nicobar on December 26, 2004, M=9.1 (depth of 30 km). 240000 people perished in essence from the tsunami.

SUBSYSTEM NORTH, FORECAST, 6.6≤Ms<7.0. Earthquake on the north of Andaman Islands ☼ did not lead to the human victims and the noticeable destruction; therefore it did not find resonance in the press. However, if earthquake would occur 50 km southern, then this would lead to the perceptible victims and destruction, therefore was important the forecast of such earthquakes. In Bulletin 002 we lowered the threshold magnitudes of the forecasted earthquakes in SS Burma to 6.6 and made a forecast of the moderate earthquakes in the subsystems North and South. For the subsystem North in the Bulletin 002 of February 28 we gave the forecast: "Soon track will be located in the region of Andaman Islands, being periodically moved away and approaching a zone of instability. There can be prepared earthquake from M=6.6". To Fig.1 is shown the SS Microplate Burma and subsystems North and South. For the subsystem North to Fig.2a is given the fragment of preparation earthquake from M=6.6 on the track diagram, on basis of which was made this forecast. It is evident from Fig.2a that the trajectory of preparation of this moderate earthquake toward the end of March approached the zone of unstable in attractor for Andaman Islands (for the local zones of А1 and А2, Fig.1):

К=0.49W + 7.09 at W>15.20 (1)

So, from March 25 to April 25 in the local zones on north and south of Andaman Islands was expected earthquake from M=6.6. The earthquake ☼ occurred exactly with our forecast - on March 30 in the zone А1 from M=6.6 (see Fig.1). Until March 30 the probability of earthquake from Ms≥6.6 in subsystem was Р=7.10% (Pw=20.85% Pk=34.03%) (see Fig.3a).

SUBSYSTEM SOUTH, FORECAST, 6.6≤Ms<7.0. To Fig.2b is shown the fragment of track diagram of the preparation of moderate earthquake in subsystem to the end of March. If in the subsystem will not be seismic activity, then track by September will approach to the unstable zone in attractor for the north of Sumatra:

К=0.71W + 3.33 at W>15.70 (2)

In September in the local zone В1 on the north of Sumatra (see Fig.1) there can be prepared moderate earthquake M=6.6. At the seismic activity possibly earthquake from M=6.8 in the zone В. To the end of March the probability of earthquake from Ms≥6.6 in the subsystem is equal Р=8.11% (PW=29.67%, PK=27.35%) (see Fig.3).

Below are given forecasts for the earthquakes from M≥7.0 in SS after the earthquake-indicator ☼.

Fig.2b. Fragment of track diagram for subsystem South of Microplate Burma. The trajectory of preparation of the moderate earthquake (heavy red line) from M≥6.6 to the end of March. Toward the September 2010 track will approach the zone of the instability В1 on the north of Sumatra (see Fig.1), where can occur M6.6 earthquake.

Fig.2а. Fragment of track diagram for subsystem North of Microplate Burma. The trajectory of preparation of the moderate earthquake (heavy red line) from M≥6.6 toward the end March 2010 entered into the zone of instability for the local zones А1 and А2 of the Andaman Islands (see Fig.1).

Fig.1. Microplate Burma (India). Controlled areas for SS Microplate Burma (M≥7.8) and subsystems North and South. In the zone A can be prepared the earthquake from M=7.8. Zones В, С are potentially dangerous for the M7.0-7.7 earthquakes. In the forecasted zone of А1 occurred the moderate earthquake on March 30, 2010, M6.6. In the zone of В1 by September 2010 can be prepared M6.6 earthquake.

Fig.4b. Dynamics of an increase probability of strong earthquake from M≥7.0 in SS of Microplate Burma on April 01, 2010.

Fig.4а. Dynamics of an increase probability of powerful earthquake from M≥7.8 in SS of Microplate Burma on April 01, 2010.

Fig.3а. Dynamics of an increase probability of moderate earthquake from M≥6.6 in subsystem North of micro-plate Burma before the earthquake on March 30, 2010.

Fig.3b. Dynamics of an increase probability of moderate earthquake from M≥6.6 in subsystem South of micro-plate Burma before the earthquake on March 30, 2010.

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☼ Earthquake on the north of Andamand Islands, India

2010.03.30 16:54:48 13.61N 92.88W H=42 km М=6.6

Focal mechanism and intensity