MONITORING AND FORECAST

SUMATRA,  Мs≥7.3

Situation in SS Sumatra after earthquake August 16, 2009, М6.8, in the region of Mentawai Islands, Indonesia.                               /August 16, 2009/

In Bulletin 001 were given forecasts for the strong earthquakes in SS Sumatra. It there communicated that explosive the region of the Mentawai islands - Siberut and Sipura occurs the preparation of catastrophic earthquake, and so it was indicated that in the system were possible the earthquakes from M=6.6-7.2, which add to the indicator-earthquakes. The earthquake ☼ in the region of Mentawai Islands - Siberut was one of them. After this indicator-earthquake the situation in the seismic system Sumatra became more determined. In the zone A (this zone includes islands Siberut and Sipura, see Fig.1) will be dangerous since March-April until August 2010.  With relative seismic gap, here will be prepared catastrophic earthquake from M=8.5-8.4. Now, on August 16, 2009 the probability of strong earthquake from M≥7.8 in SS Sumatra P=7% (on entropy P_W=16%, and on cumulative energy P_K=45%) (see Fig.2). Since December last year probability grew by 4%.

Below table gives the updated forecasts for SS Sumatra.

Fig.1. Sumatra, Indonesia. Controlled region of the forecast of earthquakes from M≥7.3. After the indicator-earthquakes from August 16, 2009, М6.8, seismic hazard remains in the zone А. At August 2010 will be here prepared catastrophic earthquake М=8.4.

Fig.2. Dynamics of an increase the probability of strong earthquake М≥7.8 in SS Sumatra after quake in August 16, 2009.

Forecasts for SS Sumatra from Bulletin 001, updated in August 16, 2009

☼ Earthquake in region of Mentawai Islands, Indonesia

      2009.08.16  07:38:26   1.40S   99.47E   H=45 km       Мs=6.8  USGS

	SUMATRA, Indonesia.  Мs≥7.8
	The situation in the system sustainable. Preparations are under way for a strong earthquake with Ms>7.8. The probability of entropy equal to 16% and on the cumulative energy 45%. Potentially dangerous in the west of Sumatra in the region of Mentawai Islands - Siberut and Sipura, Indonesia, where occurs the preparation of strong earthquake from M8.5-8.4. It will be here dangerous, since March - April until August 2010.	PK=45% PW=16% Р=7%
	SUMATRA, Indonesia.  Мs≥7.3
	Strong earthquake with a 7.3<Ms<7.8 is not expected. In the northern part of the system such earthquakes are not expected, but the preparation of the above-mentioned catastrophic earthquake occurs. Probability of such earthquakes in the southern part of the system Sumatra 3% (on the entropy  7%, on cumulative energy 42%). The southern part of Sumatra will be within the next few years seismic in the safe state to 2013 to the subject of earthquakes from M≥7.3.   Let us recall that the earthquakes from M6.6-7.2 are not forecast in the system Sumatra.	PK=42% PW=7% Р=3%

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