Southern California.Earthquakes Prediction

I. FORECAST earthquakes with Мs≥7.5. Forecast of catastrophic earthquake in California (on similarity of the earthquake 1906, San Francisco; 1857, Fort Tejon; 1992, Landers, which cause the greatest material losses and victim) is made on the basis of SS and Subsystems in Central and Southern California. American seismologists expect this earthquake in Southern California since 2007, but their approach does not make it possible to determine dangerous time interval of this catastrophe (see Forecast of the California seismologist). In contrast to the probabilistic method of the forecast earthquakes, used in California by Working Group, the giving forecast for the 30 year period, the method of seismic entropy make it possible to follow the preparation of strong earthquakes, to determine the time interval of expectation and the magnitude of these earthquakes the accuracy of larger by an order.

At present /May 11, 2009/ the trajectory of preparation catastrophic earthquake from Ms≥7.5 in California is located out of the attractor. This means that the situation in California is not dangerous. Cumulative energy of track preparation of strong earthquake sufficiently high K=16.295 (located in the region of critical values K=16.280-16.380), but there is a scarcity of entropy W=18.381 (critical values W=18.560-18.960). This means that within the next few years significant seismic activity one ought not to expect and an increase entropy will be in essence static. In other words, catastrophic earthquake is energetically prepared, but yet it did not mature on the time. With the present growth rate entropy in Southern California it will be dangerous with 2014 until 2016 on the segment of San Andreas Fault in Southern California (from Palmdale through San Bernardino to Riverside) (zone A on Fig.1). By that time here will be prepared earthquake M=7.7-7.9. In the zone of influence of the forecasted earthquake falls Los Angeles. In Southern California, at least to 2014, strong earthquake from Ms≥7.5 is not expected. Now the probability of catastrophic earthquake on the cumulative energy high, and on the entropy low РK=12%, PW=1.2%, P=0.14% (see Fig.2).

II. FORECAST earthquakes with 6.3≤Мs<7.5. Until 2014 earthquakes from 6.3<M<7.5 in Southern California are not expected except region west from Salton Sea. Here is already potentially dangerous on the segment of Coyote Greek Fault, M=6.5 (zone B on Fig.1). There is a scarcity of indicator-earthquakes energy, which indicates on seismic activity within the next few years. At relative seismic gap and weak seismic activity (M=5.0-5.3) the danger here can remain for the next years and grow with time to M=6.8 up to 2014, at the sensitive seismic activity (M=6.0) is possible migration of the source of strong earthquake into another zone inside SS San Jacinto-Imperial \valley. Now the probability of earthquake in this system P=0.2% (on cumulative energy low РK=0.7%, on entropy high PW= 28%).

III. FORECAST earthquakes with 5.8≤Мs<6.3. In area of Los of Angeles is a scarcity of cumulative energy. Prior to the middle of 2012 in area of Los of Angeles will occur the earthquake from M=5.8-6.0. The probability of this earthquake now on the cumulative energy low, and on the entropy high РK=70%, PW= 91%, P=63% (see Fig.3). Most likely earthquake will occur east of Pasadena on Sierra Madre Trust Fault) (zone C on Fig.1). The possible mechanism of source of this earthquake is given on Fig.4. Until 2014 earthquake from M=5.8-6.0 is expected also east of San Andreas Fault in the Mojave Desert. As we see, these earthquakes will occur before forecasted catastrophic earthquake. They will be triggers, their kind by forerunners for the catastrophic earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California (see Fig.4).

In Southern California until 2014 are expected the indicator-earthquakes from M=5.2-5.7, which we do not control. Earthquake dated July 29, 2008, M5.4 east of Los Angeles was one of them.

FORECAST OF THE CALIFORNIA SEISMOLOGISTS

Communication AFP about forecast of the head of Californean Center of Earthquakes Research Thomas Jordan.

Los Angeles area earthquake "pregnant".

January 10, 2007, 19:00

In the coming years in the Los Angeles area earthquake might occur, not conceding to force the famous "Fort Tejon" in 1857. This time, however, destruction and damage from it would be disastrous, comparable to the damage caused by Hurricane "Katrina".

According to AFP, this prediction was made director of the California Center for Earthquake Thomas Jordan. Southern segment of San Andreas fault, literally, is the ninth month of pregnancy earthquake. The probability of the strongest shocks in the area in coming years, ranging from 30 to 70 percent, depending on the system count", - said the scientist.

According to him, the computer simulation of a possible earthquake showed that its strength will be substantially higher than previously thought. Material damage in this densely populated area of California could exceed $150 billion.