Situation in Seismic Subsystem (SUB) North of Sakhalin after the earthquake from March 16, 2010, Ì5.5. This earthquake is interesting because had a magnitude close to the threshold; it sharply raised the probability of moderate earthquake with M5.7 in subsystem … /March 18, 2010/
MAGNITUDE OF EARTHQUAKES DETERMINED BY THE METHOD OF SEISMIC ENTROPY REFLECTS REAL TECTONIC PROCESSES IN THE EARTH
Estimated magnitude of strong earthquakes on the basis of the law of seismic entropy production corresponds to energy of an earthquake, prepared and accumulated geological structure in SS for many years. A traditional magnitude (determined by records of seismic waves), may contain influence fluids, artificial and technogenic factors in the source zone, that can strengthen or weaken the force of the earthquake. Comparison of the forecasted magnitudes of strong earthquakes by the method of seismic entropy with the traditional magnitudes, determined by seismological networks, and analysis deviations to that or other side, makes it possible to reveal fluid, technogenic component in the preparation of earthquake.
FORECAST, 5.6≤Ms<6.4. (Subsystem North of Sachalin, Fig.1). In Bulletin 002 we lowered the threshold magnitudes of forecasted earthquakes for SUB the North of Sakhalin to 5.6. There we forecast, that " … for the preparation of earthquake from Ms=5.6 the accumulated entropy is sufficient; however, there is a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. The earthquakes of the moderate force from 5.6≤Ms<6.4 on the north of Sakhalin within the next few years are not expected. Are expected earthquake-indicators from M=5.0-5.5". Let us note that according to our classification the subsystem relates to those badly determined.
Earthquake on March 14 ☼ according to different sources had a spread of magnitudes Ms=5.5-5.8 close to threshold value of 5.6. The refinement of the magnitudes of such earthquakes very importantly for the forecast and requires special thin analysis.
The method of seismic entropy allows to refine the magnitudes of strong earthquakes and earthquake-indicators (Akopian 1998, htm). The analysis of track and energy diagrams makes it possible to add earthquake on March 16 to the expected earthquake-indicators and to accept its magnitude Ms=5.5. Let us recall that with the forecast of magnitude Neftegorsk earthquake 1995, the value of the magnitude M=7.2 it was better approximated by the law of seismic entropy production from all determinations of magnitudes in the range M=7.2-7.6 (see Akopian 1998, htm). It is possible to establish that in the subsystem North of Sakhalin occurs a certain strengthening of the force of tectonic earthquakes due to a variation in the content of natural hydrocarbon fluids. Oilgas-extraction can affect the natural processes and greater these effects in the coming years.
Earthquakes on March 16 it raised track and now it is located in the zone of instability moderate earthquake from Ms=5.7. Until March 16 the probability of the moderate earthquake from 5.6≤Ms<6.4 in the subsystem was small P=0.07% (Pw=0.60%, Pk=12.21%), afterward it jumped P=2.24% (Pw=12.55%, Pk=17.81%) (see Fig.2)
Fig.1. Sachalin. Controlled areas of SS (M≥6.4) and the northern subsystem (M≥5.6) of Sakhalin. Is shown the epicentre of earthquake on March 16, 2010.
Fig.2. Dynamics of an increase the probability of moderate earthquake with Ì≥5.6 in subsystem North of Sachalin after the March 16, 2010.
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☼ Earthquake on the North of Sachalin, Russia
2010.03.16 09:44:18 52.16N 142.21E H=24 km Ì=5.5
Focal mechanism and intensity