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MONITORING AND FORECAST, IRAN, CENTRE, SOUTH-EAST

The situation in the seismic system Pakistan-Afghanistan has not changed. Earthquake of January 18, 2011, M7.2 in the south-west Pakistan has occurred outside the seismic systems in the province of Baluchistan. This earthquake occurred between the SS Lut (Central Iran) and SS Pakistan-Afghanistan, where the historical earthquakes not observed. /January 20, 2011/

SS PAKISTAN-AFGANISTAN

IV level (badly).
Lenght 1300 km.
Depth 80 km.
Threshold magnitude 6.6.
Monitoring with 2008.
Predicted quakes 0.

Large cities: Kabul, Kandahar, Peshawar, Karachi, Hyderabad.

Seismicity is caused by north-directed motion of Indian plate and its interaction in the western part of the Eurasian and Afghan plates in the area of Baluchistan. In the north, the system is bordered by a zone of compression, subduction and deep earthquakes of the Pamir-Hindu Kush. In sources dominated left lateral strike-slip movement.

PECULIARITY EARTHQUAKE ☼ lies in the fact that it occurred outside the SS and had a normal mechanism. Therefore, this earthquake by our classification refers to the class is not predictable or poorly predicted (see Areas of application of the method...). As in the case of an earthquake in Haiti (see Communication from 31.01.2010), Iran (see Communication from 24.12.2010) map of seismic hazard again gave a misfire. The earthquake occurred in the V-VI ball zone on the map of seismic hazard (Fig.1). But in reality, in the epicentral area the intensity of earthquake was VII ball. The earthquake had a greater depth of 68 km and occurred in a relatively sparsely populated province of Baluchistan, so there was no casualties and the destruction of sensitive. To develop criteria for prediction of such earthquakes in the future we try to understand the possible mechanism. By the focal mechanism of source ☼ we restored the possible version of the faulting, direction of the compressive and stretching stresses (see Fig.2). Presumably the faulting stretches from west to east and had a weak left lateral strike-slip component. Were the primary compressive stresses in the direction from SW to NE. The result has been tension in the direction SE-NW. This mechanism can be explained by pressing the tectonic block of Makran between SS Lut and Pakistan- Afghanistan. Apparently stresses were here accumulated slowly, since the basic seismic activations occurred within SS's. Trigger mechanism it could prove to be recent untypical earthquake in SS Lut (see Communication from 24.12.2010). It was there indicated that after this earthquake potentially dangerous it became in the east of Iranian Baluchistan, in the zone B (Fig.2). The counterclockwise rotation of the Lut block and the concentration of the compressive stresses in the zone B they could provoke the earthquake of Dalbandin ☼.

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