Official site EPC “GeoQuake”: www.geoq.ru

RF, Moscow.  21 February 2008

From: Dr. Akopian S.Ts. Leader of EPC “GeoQuake”.  E-mail: samvel@post.ru

To: Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP). E-mail: yochi@gsi.go.jp

CC: takeuchi@rcep.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

       kawasaki@rcep.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

 

I send to you information about the forecast of strong earthquake in Japan.

 

FORECAST

of strong earthquake in Japan with Мs³7.8 Н<80 км

(21 February 2008)

(Forecast it is given on the basis of the method of seismic entropy by Akopian S.Ts.)

 

 At present situation in the seismic system Japan very dangerous, is expected strong earthquake from Ms=8.3. It is dangerous zone A (Fig.1) in Tokyo region. From July through September 2008 here is expected strong earthquake with the magnitude of Ms=8.3 and a depth of hypocentre up to 25 km.

The track preparation of strong earthquake already went around all zones of the instability of southwestern Japan (Kyushu 1941, Tonankay 1944, Nankaydo 1946) - this means that there within the next few years the strong earthquake from с Мs³7.8 is not expected.

 

The track is located in the attractor and approach to a zone of the instability of the earthquakes Kanto1923 (zone A) and Boso Oki 1953 (zone B) in central Japan. Thus far track is developed on the scenario of the earthquake Kanto 1923. Now track has coordinates К=16.703 and W=18.261. Coordinates of the nearest point of instability (earthquake of Kanto) are equal К=16.726 and W=18.339, which the track will reach towards August- September of 2008.

 

The scarcity of cumulative energy of track in comparison with the Kanto is equal to energy of earthquake from M=6.7, while scarcity in comparison with Boso Oki equal to earthquake from M=7.1. This means that any earthquake in the system from M=6.7 can provoke and serve as the forerunner of Tokyo earthquake. Tokyo can rescue in such a case, when in the system occurs earthquake from M7.1-7.3, and then catastrophic earthquake from M=8.3 can migrate to the side of ocean, into the zone B.

The probability of earthquake in the system is equal to Р=P_K*P_W=34% (on entropy P_W=55%, and on the cumulative energy P_K=61%) (Fig.2). If this earthquake does not occur to the end of October of 2008, then danger will move into another zone SS Japan, but Tokyo will be out of danger, at least, up to 2020.

In more detail with the method and by forecast it is possible to become acquainted on the pages of the site of Earthquake Prediction Centre "GeoQuake" www.geoq.ru.

 

With the respect  

Dr. Akopian S.Ts.

 

Fig.1. The prognostic map of Japan earthquakes from M≥7.8. Strong earthquake is expected in the zone A (Tokyo) from June through September 2008, M8.3. There is the small probability that the epicentre will move into the zone B.

Fig.2. Dynamics of increase the probability of the strong earthquake of М≥7.8 in SS Japan.