Forecast
Mega earthquake off East
Coast
of Honshu on March 11, 2011,
М=9.0
.
"... Thus,
monitoring of catastrophic earthquake with М≥7.8 off
the East Сoast of
Honshu which
carried out since 2008 on
our
website in ON Line mode,
ended March 11 mega-catastrophe.
Two days
before the
accident seismicity in Japan
has developed so
rapidly that I practically
haven't had time to react and give
a final prediction.
On March 9
off
East Coast of Honshu there
was the strongest for last 7 years earthquake-indicator in
SS Japan
☼ .
It was so strong that Japanese
seismologists wrongly could accept its finishing on this stage of time and
to lose vigilance. The
Message from
09.05.2008
was key. In this and
in
almost all later,
it was noticed that the tsunami
catastrophic earthquake in an extensive oceanic
area on
NE of
Honshu can occur in case in SS
there will be a strong earthquake with М=7.4. I supervised
accident preparation in Mega SS
Japan, but the question wasn't discussed on a site. Couldn't assume that
after earthquake with М=7.4-7.7 will have
practically no
time to do it
...
The
earthquake magnitude was on March 9, 2011 the key factor for the forecast at
the mega-disaster closing
stage on March 11, 2011.
For operative monitoring we lean against the data of a seismic network of
U.S.Geological Service (USGS).
In the operative data on March, 9th for this key earthquake they have given
magnitude Ms=7.0, then on March, 10th it has been raised to Ms=7.3. The
Russian seismological network (CCD)
has given out magnitudes Ms=7.4 and Ms=7.7 with a priority on the second
value... Anyhow, till March 11,
2011 we hadn't time to prepare materials for a site. I don't feed illusions
even if on a site earthquake time would be precisely specified, Japanese
wouldn't react. Before the dangerous situation was in the summer of 2008 in
area Tokyo, I have officially informed them (the Message
from February 21,
2008), but no
reaction. I think cooperation with Japanese seismologists would allow...,
but that's thinking for the
future!...
Quote below the final stage of the
analysis of Japanese disaster,
based
on our messages before accident,
which on similarity of "black boxes" the lost plane, allow to make it
objectively ...
Akopian S.Ts.
/March
21,
2011/
I.
SS
Japan,
FORECAST,
Мs≥7.8.
After last
Message from 15.12.2010 in January 2011 seismic activizations in
system it was not observed, the track from below has rounded areas of
instability of Tokachi Oki earthquake
zone Е1 in Fig.1. It meant that there it
is safe and since February 2011 track has come back
in dotted dark blue area to the south of zone Е1
on Fig.1. In such situation two days prior to mega-disaster
on March 9, 2011 there was the strongest
earthquake-indicator for last 7 years in SS Japan
☼
which has sharply changed a situation in system (see Fig.2). The
track has jumped upwards and has actually returned SS
in a condition described in the Message from
09.05.2008.
There it was said that tsunami
catastrophic earthquake in an extensive oceanic area
on NE of Honshu (in zones D and E)
can occur in case in SS there will be a strong
earthquake with М=7.4.
On March 9, 2011 it was dangerous
already only in a southern part of zone Е
(as in the top dark blue dotted part in a Fig.1 danger
passed).
In a Fig.2 the fragment of track diagram SS
Japan since February, 2008, when we began monitoring
on a site, up to the mega-disaster is resulted. The
equation for a local zone of instability
D+E
has the form:
К = 0.354W
+ 10.370.
From the beginning of 2009 for stability loss in zones
D and
E
the track all time had the deficiency of energy equal to energy of
earthquake-indicator with М=7.3-7.4. In further (see
the Message from
08.13.2009)
we specially watched and everywhere noticed that there is a deficiency of
energy of earthquake-indicator with М=7.4. Above zones of instability
D and
E
the area of instability for mega-earthquakes which are predicted in
Mega-SS
Japan where finally the trajectory has got began.
In Fig.3 the definitive diagram of dynamics growth of probability of
strong earthquake before mega-earthquake is resulted on March 11, 2011.
After March 9, 2011 probability has jumped up on
7 % and for
March 11
made
Р=61.57%
(PW=76.67%,
PK=80.31%).
Track coordinates, probability of strong earthquake with Мs≥7.8 in SS
Japan for March are resulted in Tab.1.
The earthquake-indicator forecast
☼,
the mega-disaster trigger look more
low, in SS North Honshu.
Table 1. Growth of
dynamic parameters of preparation strong earthquake (Мs≥7.8) in SS
Japan for March, 2011. Dangerously in zone Е.
|
|
DATA |
PREPARATION |
ENERGY |
PROBABILITY |
PLACE |
|
|
CLASS |
ENTROPY |
MAGNITUDE |
BY
ENERGY |
BY
ENTROPY |
BY
ATTRACTOR |
Name, Faults |
|
|
Y.М.D. |
K |
W |
Ms |
Pк |
Pw |
P |
FORECAST |
|
Critical
Values |
|
|
16.960 |
18.630 |
8.8 |
|
|
|
Zone
Е |
|
|
|
Preparation
of
the strong
earthquake
|
2008
Jul.10
2008
Aug.10
2008
Aug.20
2008
Aug.31
2008
Sep.30
2008
Oct.31
2008 Nov.30
2008
Dec.31
2009
Jun.30
2009
Aug.12
2010 Mar.31
2010 Jul.31
2010 Dec.31
2011
Mar.08
2011 Mar.09
02:45:18 |
16.756
16.793 16.793
16.793
16.793
16.793
16.793
16.808
16.811
16.837
16.848
16.853
16.854
16.854
17.013 |
18.334
18.346
18.350
18.354
18.366
18.378
18.389
18.400
18.462
18.482
18.546
18.579
18.618
18.636
18.636 |
М=9.0 |
64.44%
66.81%
66.81%
66.81%
66.81%
66.81%
66.81%
67.76%
68.13%
70.11%
70.84%
71.14%
71.26%
71.44%
80.31% |
59.54%
60.31%
60.55%
60.80%
61.51%
62.19%
62.86%
63.52%
67.13%
68.23%
71.73%
73.14%
75.07%
76.16%
76.67% |
38.37%
40.29%
40.45%
40.62%
41.09%
41.55%
42.00%
43.04%
45.73%
47.83%
50.81%
52.27%
53.50%
54.41%
61.57% |
No danger
Was
danger
in zone С
No danger
No danger
No danger
No danger
No danger
No danger
No danger
No danger
Danger
E1
No danger
Danger
E!!! |
|
FORECAST
|
2011.03 |
|
|
M>8.8 |
|
|
|
Zone Е |
Fig.5.
Mega SS Japan. Controlled area of
the forecast of earthquakes with M≥8.4. Are shown sources area of mega
earthquakes 1933, 1946 and 2011.03.11. Prognostic zones D
and Е expectations of mega-disaster according to SS
Japan are shown.
Fig.1.
SS Japan.
Controlled
area
of earthquake prediction
with
M≥7.8 and
earthquake-indicators.
In January danger passed
Е1, and after earthquake of 03.09.2011,
М=7.7, passed a dark blue dotted zone in the north and has moved to zone
Е.
Fig.6.
Fragments of the track diagram Mega-SS Japan
on March 10, 2011. It is shown
attractor (a zone of instability of earthquakes 1933 and
1946). The mega-disaster track for 60 years only
after March 9 has got to an instability zone. On the enlarged
fragment shows part of tracks
before 2003 accident. Monitoring on a site was made with
2008. The part of track when it in SS
Japan bent around area of instability of Tokyo in the summer 2008 is shown.
Fig.2.
Fragment of track diagram SS
Japan from the beginning of monitoring before mega-disaster.
For March 10,
2011 track passed a zone of instability 2003 and, after earthquake of
03.09.2011,
has jumped upwards. The track has got to area of instability
E, but in mega-system all zone
E-D has worked.
Fig.4.
The forecast of earthquake from 2011.03.09, М=7.7
in SS
North Honshu, Japan. Earthquake with М≥7.4 was expected in the beginning of
2012 in a red zone. In March
2011 it was dangerous in yellow dotted area. Instability tended to migrate
from the South to the North.
Fig.7.
Dynamics growth of probability of strong earthquake with М≥8.4 in Mega-SS
Japan on
March 10,
2011. Probabilities very high, on March 9 the probability has jumped up on
2%. After mega-disaster
the seismic cycle has come to the end.
Fig.3.
Dynamics of growth of probability of strong earthquake in SS
Japan for March 10,
2011. After earthquake 03.09.2011
the probability has jumped up on 7 %. On it all
has come to the end.
II.
FORECAST
EARTHQUAKE
2011.03.09, М=7.7
☼
SS North Honshu,
Japan,
FORECAST,
7.3≤Мs<7.8.
In this system there was an earthquake
preparation
☼.
In the Bulletin 03
from Sep. 17, 2010
it has been predicted: "At the beginning 2012 will be dangerous on
the northeast of Honshu M=7.4, east of pref. Miyako, pref. Iwate
60 km in the ocean, if thus far in the system does not occur
strong earthquake from
М>7.8. The probability of earthquake is high....".
The forecast has been given on the basis of monitoring of a local zone of
instability in attractor,
stretched from the epicenters of two strong
earthquakes 1936.11.02,
М=7.3 and 1978.06.12,
М=7.7 to the
sources 1989.11.01,
М=7.4 and
1931.03.09, М=7.7
(see Fig.4).
The track developed from area of instability of earthquake 1936 to area of
instability of earthquake 1989 which should reach to the beginning of 2012.
In Fig.4 yellow dotted line the area where instability for March 2011 has
been localized is shown. If we analyzed and let out the Bulletin every month
we with the following accuracy could predict this earthquake:
in March in yellow area there can be a
strong earthquake with М7.4. The error in a
place would make 80 km that is connected with badly certain seismic system.
Our resources don't allow to trace a seismic situation monthly. Let's notice
that at the moment of earthquake the track had already very big value of
cumulative energy K=16.56, and on entropy W=18.26. The track was near to a
point of instability of earthquake 1938.05.23,
М=7.7, K=16.63, W=18.22. Considering this
circumstance, in a yellow dotted zone it was possible to expect earthquake
with М=7.7. The probability of earthquake equaled Р=67.35%
(PW=78.81%,
PK=85.46%),
in September 2010 was Р=63% (Pw=75%, Pk=84%).
Mega-Earthquake
Off East Coast of Honshu,
Japan
2011.03.11
05:46:23
38.32N
142.37E
H=32
km
M=9.0
Intensity,
source,
triggers (yellow) and
aftershocks.
☼ Earthquake
Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan
2011.03.09
02:45:18
38.42N
142.84E
H=32
km
Мs=7.0
(USGS, March 9),
Ms=7.3 (USGS, March 10)
Ms=7.7 (7.4)CCD
Intensity,
source,
aftershochs.
III. MEGA
SS JAPAN
Мs≥8.4
FORECAST Mega-EARTHQUAKE
2011.03.11, М=9.0
off
East Coast of Honshu
.
Mega SS Japan treats the category
badly defined, there are only authentically come to the end two seismic
cycles, for earthquake of Nankaydo, 1946,
М=8.4 and Sanriku, 1933,
М=8.7 (see Fig.5). For the comparative
analysis we involved the data from others Mega SS.
This data from 100 % confidence has allowed to conclude that for last 60
years the track of preparation of the mega-disasters
in Japan was far from attractor (see
Fig.6). Till September, 2008 energy of earthquake-indicator in
SS Japan was insufficient for hit in area of instability of
mega-disasters. By September 2008 track for some
months has jumped up and has bypassed zone of
instability for the big Tokyo area
(see
the Message from
07.31.2008)
and area of mega-disasters became already accessible.
The Message from
09.05.2008
was key. In it and almost in all the subsequent, it was noticed that
tsunami
catastrophic earthquake in an extensive oceanic zone on NE
Honshu (in zones D and E) can occur in
case in SS there will be a strong earthquake with
М=7.4. In further (see
the Message from
08.13.2009)
we watched and noticed that there is a deficiency of energy of
earthquake-indicator which could start avalanche process of preparation of
mega-disaster in zone D,
and then in E.
Forecast in
SS Japan has shown that after
March 9 the track has come back in zone Е
and in Mega SS extensive area
Е+D (see Fig.5) is prepared for
discharging.
*******************************************************************************************************************************************************************
Here monitoring and the forecast by which we did in ON Line a mode on an
extent more than 3 years breaks. In all Messages on a site we reacted to
earthquakes within 1-2 days. The value
of magnitude of earthquake-indicator
was very important for the further monitoring and the forecast, however,
rapidity of events and variability of data of world Seismological networks
hasn't allowed to react operatively... For two days all has failed!
*******************************************************************************************************************************************************************
Further calculations and analysis,
which I have already made after catastrope
have amazed me
on the spot!!!
The Nature didn't have chances, by March 2011
she had already accumulated a record entropy (W=20.586),
greater than Mega SS Chile at the
Chilean earthquake of 1960 (W=20.350) (see the
Message 25.03.2010). I.e. on entropy
disaster has so ripened that the system already could be
discharged only by means of mega-earthquake with М=9.0,
deficiency of energy equaled in accuracy of energy of earthquake-indicator
with М=7.7. To wait the Nature couldn't in any way more, there was a unique
chance: there is an earthquake-indicator
☼
and at once - mega-disaster
. Now it is all in the numbers.
FORECAST
Мs≥8.4.
Earthquake
☼
sharply raised the track,
he fell into the attractor
with parameters K=17.987, W=20.586. Before in the world the track Chilean
earthquake 1960, K=17.950, W=20.350 had the greatest values of entropy. So
the mega-earthquake in Japan March 11, 2011
has broken the record of the Chilean
earthquake, 1960. Attractor and the law of seismic
entropy production for Mega SS
Japan, determined from the earthquakes 1933 and 1946,
are as follows:
К = 0.337W
+ 11.064
at
W>19.450
attractor
(1)
Кs = 0.802W
+ 1.560
at
W>19.450
law
of seismic entropy production
(2)
Substituting
value
of track
entropy W=20.586 in the equations (1) we will receive K=18.000, and
parameter of track K=17.987, i.e. earthquake magnitude on March 9,
М=7.7 in accuracy compensated deficiency of earthquakes-indicators
energy. Substituting entropy W=20.586 in the equation (2) we
will receive Ks=18.070 that corresponds to magnitude 9.0-9.1. I.е.
all that has occurred in Japan was inevitable and entirely
predictable. The probability of mega-disaster
till March 9 was
Р=85.69%
(PW=91.93%,
PK=93.21%),
after earthquake-indicator has in steps increased
Р=87.53%
(PW=91.93%,
PK=95.21%)
(see
Fig.7).
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I'm
shocked! The game of
seismic chess ended with the
chessboard destruction...
... Nature saw the trap, paused, and then on March
9 has made a very strong move. Even experts precisely couldn't define force of a
course in the circumstances. Earlier, I did all reciprocal courses for 1-2 days.
And here uncertainty. Since April, 2009 I repeated all time that if the Nature
will play М=7.4 that it is forced will lose... On March 11 I have finished the
analysis and have prepared the answer in which has shown that in all variants of
a reciprocal course the Nature loses. The party came to an end with disaster in
an extensive oceanic area on NE of Honshu which I specified earlier... Usually
by rules of chess the Nature should wait a reciprocal move, but probably she has
understood that I have practically solved its plan, and other variants of
continuation of game at it weren't also it, without having waited the answer,
has destroyed (has turned) all chessboard... That I couldn't in any way and
wouldn't have time to expect... The Party has come to the end tragically.
I feel sincere sympathy for victims and all
Japanese.
S.Ts.
Akopian. 21.03.2011
