MONITORING AND FORECAST. SS South Kuril (RF)-Hokkaido (JAPAN),  Мs≥7.8

Situation in the SS after the earthquake April 7, 2009, М6.9 off the east of Kuril Islands.                                               /April 07, 2009/

Update after the earthquake April 18, 2009, М6.6      /April 19, 2009/

Situation in the system.

   At present, on April 19, 2009, earthquakes from Мs≥7.8 are not expected. Track is located in the attractor, but there is a scarcity of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators (see.Tab.1). As can be seen from Table 1, earthquakes dated April 7 and 18, 2009. (see Fig.1) somewhat completed the scarcity of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes. Now scarcity is equal to energy of earthquake from M7.1. Track continues developed on the scenario close to the preparation of Tokachi Oki earthquake on September 25, 2003. As it was noted in the communication dated September 13, 2008 and into Bulletin 001 on our site, will within the next few years occur earthquakes from 6.0<M<7.0. Earthquakes dated April 7 and 18, 2009, M6.9, M6.6 of ☼ were some of them. Thus far situation is developed in accordance with the forecast dated September 13, 2008.

  Potentially hazardous remain zones А or В (Fig.1). The track will reach the unstable region of these earthquakes by 2012 on the entropy. Here, during the making more active of earthquake-indicators by 2012 can be prepared earthquake M8.2 and with the focal depth to 45 km. After the indicator-earthquakes of ☼ the probability of strong earthquake in the system in April grew from Р=1.3% to Р=2.8% (on entropy P_W=21.5%, and on cumulative energy P_K=12.9%) (see Fig.2 and Tab.1). Let us recall that earthquake-indicators with 6.0<М<7.4 in the system they are not controlled. 

  Inhabitants and tourists of Hokkaido and southern Kurile Islands can be calm, thus far danger from the strong earthquakes from Ms≥7.4, which can cause noticeable damage, destruction and tsunami, them does not threaten.

Fig.1. South Kuril (Russia), Hokkaido (Japan). Controlled region of the forecast of earthquakes from M≥7.8. Strong earthquakes are not expected. Is shown the epicentres of indicator-earthquakes dated April 7 and 18, 2009, M6.9, M6.6. On the previous are potentially dangerous the zones A and B. Close to 2012 in one of them can be prepared M8.2 earthquake.

Fig.2. Dynamics of increase the probability of strong earthquake in SS South Kuril - Hokkaido on April 2009.

Table 1. The dynamic parameters of the preparation of strong earthquake (Ms≥7.8) in SS South Kuril - Hokkaido on April 2009, after two indicator-earthquakes.

☼ Earthquakes off the east of Kuril Islands

2009.04.07  04:23:34     46.09N  151.50E    H=34 km    Мs=6.9                                   2009.04.18  19:18:00     46.12N  151.36E    H=35 km      Мs=6.6

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