MONITORING AND FORECAST

JAPAN,  Мs≥7.8

Situation in SS Japan after earthquake dated December 20, 2008, M6.5 off the east coast of Honshu.             /December 21, 2008/.

 Game into seismic chess continues...

  ... In contrast to classical chess, which to last several hours, seismic party can continue for years. The Nature of the response swing thought for more than 3 months. In December it made several small movements, in the form earthquakes with the magnitudes of M5.3 and M5.6, which did not change situation and therefore I on them did not react! After checking on my strength, she (Nature), finally, on 20 December 2008 make a move, which I expected! Nature accepted the call and selected the active version of the continuation of the game in the form of M6.5 earthquake. Now probability that match will end in the first half of 2009 it grew. According to my calculations one additional incorrect motion and Nature will be defeated, party to end by strong earthquake in 2009!? But there can be it did prepare trap, indeed in it the colossal experience of game? So that we will not hurry, let us wait answer ...  

    Akopian S.Ts.

Situation in the system.

At present, on December 21, 2008, in the system continues the preparation of strong earthquake from М=8.1. The track of the preparation of earthquake approaches an unstable region of earthquake 1938 Fukushima Oki (zone D on Fig.1). To Tab.1 are given the values of the parameters of instability for this zone and dynamic track parameters on December 2008. My forecasts thus far are confirmed. As we predicted (see communication dated September 5, 2008), so that the track would fall into the zone of instability D, was necessary the making more active of earthquakes with magnitudes 6.5 and 7.4. As we there they predicted, system will select the first, active version of development.

On December 20, 2008 in the system, off the east coast of Honshu (see Fig.1) occurred earthquake from М6.5☼. This earthquake partially compensated the scarcity of cumulative energy, necessary for the loss of stability in the zone D (see Tab.1). Now so that the track would fall into the zone of instability necessarily one earthquake with magnitude 7.4, which will be trigger and completely will complete the scarcity of cumulative energy (trigger earthquake it can occur near the zone D). The trajectory will reach zone D by March 2009 on the entropy. Thus, in the zone D in March - April 2009 can be prepared strong earthquake from M=8.1.  

Probability of strong earthquake from Ms>7.8 in the seismic system Japan on December equal P=43% (on entropy P_W=64%, and on cumulative energy P_K=68%) (see Fig.2 and Tab.1). In the recent 3 months the probability grew by 3 %.

Fig.2. Dynamics of an increase the probability of strong earthquake in SS Japan in December 2008.

Table 1. Increase in the dynamic parameters of the preparation of strong earthquake (Ms≥7.8) in SS Japan on December 2008. Dangerous is potentially zone D.

Fig.1. Japan. Controlled region of the forecast of earthquakes from M≥7.8. After the earthquake from 20 December, 2008 M6.5, seismic hazard in the region D has increased. A strong earthquake with M=8.1 is expected in the zone D of the March-April 2009.

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