MONITORING AND FORECAST. SS South Kuril (RF)-Hokkaido (JAPAN),  Мs≥7.8

Monitoring and forecast of strong earthquakes Hokkaido (Japan) is done in the seismic system South Kuril - Hokkaido on the paid pages of site. After earthquake dated September 11, 2008, M6.9 east of Hokkaido I decided these results to give opened, in the news communications, for the illustration of the method of monitoring and forecast of strong earthquakes based on the example to the entire territory of Japan.  

     13.09.08 Akopian S.Ts.

Situation in the system.

At present, on September 13, 2008, earthquakes from Мs≥7.8 are not expected. Track is located in the attractor, but there is a scarcity of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators (see.Tab.1). Thus far track is developed on the scenario of the close to the preparation of Tokachi Oki earthquake on September 25, 2003. As it was noted on the paid page of our site, will within the next few years occur earthquakes with 6.0<М<7.0, earthquakes with M to 7.3 are possible. Earthquake-indicator dated September 11, 2008, M6.9 of ☼ was one of them.

Potentially hazardous zones they are zone А or В (Fig.1). Here, during the making more active of earthquake-indicators, only by 2012 it can be dangerously (M8.2 and with the focal depth to 45 km). After the earthquake-indicator of ☼ the probability of strong earthquake in the system from Р=0.7% grew to Р=1.3% (on entropy P_W=18.3%, and on cumulative energy P_K=7.1%) (see Fig.2 and Tab.1). Let us recall that earthquake-indicators with 5.5<М<7.8 in the system they are not controlled.

Inhabitants and tourists of Hokkaido and southern Kurile Islands can be calm, thus far danger from the strong earthquakes from Ms≥7.4, which can cause noticeable damage, destruction and tsunami, them does not threaten.   

Fig.1. South Kuril (Russia), Hokkaido (Japan). Controlled region of the forecast of earthquakes from M≥7.8. Strong earthquakes are not expected. Potentially hazardous zones A and B by 2012.

Fig.2. Dynamics of increase the probability of strong earthquake in SS South Kuril - Hokkaido in September 2008.

Table 1. The dynamic parameters of the preparation of strong earthquake (Ms≥7.8) in SS South Kuril - Hokkaido.

☼ Earthquake off the east coast of Hokkaido island, Japan

2008.09.11  00:20:52     41.98N  143.63E    H=35 км      Мs=6.9

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