MONITORING AND FORECAST

JAPAN,  Мs≥7.8

Rescuing by Tokyo, seismic cycle continue, danger is moved to the northeast of Honshu                                                             /September 05, 2008/.

In the last 55 years in Tokyo area there was dangerously only 2 months (July-August 2008), and remaining time (99.70%) strong earthquake from M>7.8 were excluded on the basis of the method of seismic entropy.  

 Game into seismic chess continues...

  ... Thus, nature by its last motion, at the most critical moment decided to go around dangerous section in Tokyo region! In this chess party of Tokyo it is rescued, already catastrophic earthquake does not threaten it. Nature, of course, this made not of the humane considerations, but on the basis of the fact that its motions were me guess!  Thus far it plays into seismic chess according to my rules predictably! In Nature the larger experience of game, but in it gradually remains increasingly less field for the maneuvers. Nature now must make motion. It has two versions of the continuation of game - active and passive. It will be defeated and party to end by strong earthquake in 2009 with the selection of the active continuation of game (which is most probable). With the selection of passive version the game will be tightened  ...   

    S.Ts. Akopian.

Analysis of results of the forecast of strong earthquake in Tokyo area.

Thus, at present, on September 5, 2008, we can consider that the seismic danger passed unstable area in central Japan near Tokyo. On the command of nature of Tokyo rescued within the next few years catastrophic earthquake from M>7.8 it do not threaten.  

In Fig.1 is shown the fragment of the track of the preparation of strong earthquake in SS Japan from April to September 2008, increased 50 times. On this diagram are shown local unstable regions for the earthquakes of 1923 Kanto, 1953 Boso Oki and supposedly to 1703 Genroku (see Fig.2, zones A,B,C).  

Let us note that for a period of 55 years, since 1953 the track of 5 times was passed by these zones of instability, but not to time so closely it approached these zones of instability. Based on this, I in the communication dated February 21, 2008 warned Japanese seismologists about the danger in Tokyo region and, in sight all visitors of site, in real time made monitoring seismic situation (see all previous communications in the news of "GeoQuake" on Japan). During the monitoring I adhered to the rules of the developed by me method of seismic entropy, presented on the site. On the time dangerous situation in Tokyo region was felt in July-August 2008, which composed 0.3% from 55 years of observations.

It is evident from Fig.1 that the situation was developed very dramatically and dynamically. Earthquake dated May 7, 2008 close drew nearer track the zone of the instability of Kanto. It would seem somewhat and it will occur catastrophe. But occurred earthquake on June 13, 2008 and situation somewhat changed, but danger remained. And finally on July 19, 2008 occurred the earthquake, which saved the situation, which it hang on the hairspring!!! Would seem three earthquakes in Japan, removed from Tokyo at the different distances (from 200 to 500 km), according to the traditional methods in no way interconnected (see Fig.3). But, in reality, they, under the management of entropy, played in the united orchestra, but was performed different role.   

 FORECAST TO THE FUTURE FOR TOKYO

The carried out monitoring made it possible to quantitatively refine the boundaries of the region of the instability of catastrophic earthquakes in Tokyo area on the track diagram:

                                       W= 18.335-18.355   К=16.726-16.780      (the region of instability for zones А,С,В)

This region will not change into the next one hundred years, which will make it possible in the future to reliably control Tokyo!!! So that in Tokyo area would occur catastrophic earthquake track it must fall into this unstable region, then a forecast can be will be made with an accuracy to month. Each track in SS Japan concludes with strong earthquake, then it starts again. So that the track would fall into the unstable region for Tokyo, as the minimum must end the current seismic cycle and start new. And depending on future seismic activity it will be possible to trace the new trajectory and control danger in Tokyo area. Catastrophic earthquake will not foresee in the next 10 years.

I will note that the given results concern catastrophic earthquakes from M>7.8 in Tokyo. Earthquakes with the smaller magnitude are forecast in the subsystems, but these results we here do not consider.  

Akopian S.Ts. 

Fig.2. Central Japan. Sagami Trough. Prognostic zones A,B,C from the strong earthquakes with M>7.8, of the corresponding to the epicentral zones historical of the earthquake of 1923 Kanto, 1953 Boso Oki and 1703 Genroku.

Fig.1. Fragment of the track of the preparation of strong earthquake in SS Japan on September 1, 2008. Are shown the unstable regions of catastrophic earthquakes 1923, 1953 and 1703 yrs. 

Situation in the system.

At present, on September 5, 2008, in the system it is not dangerous. The track of the preparation of strong earthquake on top went around unstable regions for Tokyo area on the track diagram (zones A,B,C to Fig.3). August passed without the seismic shakings in central Japan - this means that the track passed on top from the local zones of instability at the safe distance (see Fig.1).

The nearest, potentially hazardous zone of instability - this is the unstable region of the earthquake of 1938 Fukushima Oki (zone D on Fig.3). To Tab.1 are given the values of the parameters of instability for this zone and dynamic track parameters in September 2008. The trajectory will reach this zone by March 2009 on the entropy, but thus far there is a scarcity of cumulative energy. So that the track would fall into this zone until March in the system they must occur the earthquakes with magnitude 6.5 and 7.4, which will complete the scarcity of cumulative energy. Let us recall that in the southern, southwestern part SS Japan in this seismic cycle strong earthquake (M>7.8) are excluded.

Thus two scenarios of the development are possible:

• the first - occurs the above-mentioned activity and track falls into the zone of instability D. Then here (in the oceanic zone) in March-May 2009 occurs the tsunamigen strong earthquake from M=8.1 (see.Tab.1);

• the second scenario - will be established relative seismic calm and then seismic cycle is tightened, but for the realization of strong earthquake it will remain increasingly less space. The second scenario will end by the strong earthquake north of zone D in the oceanic zone E, on the northeast of Honshu (see Fig.3). 

Analysis in the subsystems shows that is most probable the first scenario of development with the seismic activity in the center of the mainland part of Honshu (north western or southwest from Tokyo, M6.5) and in the east from Kyushu (M6.8) in the next 5 months.

Probability of strong earthquake from Ms>7.8 in the seismic system Japan in September equal to P=41% (on entropy P_W=62%, and on cumulative energy P_K=67%) (see Fig.4 and Tab.1).

Fig.1. Japan. Controlled region of the forecast of earthquakes from M≥7.8. Because of three earthquake-indicators in May, June and July 2008 seismic danger in Tokyo area (zones A,B,C) passed. The source of the expected strong earthquake is moved to the north, to the zone D.  

Fig.4. Dynamics of an increase in the probability of strong earthquake in SS Japan in September 2008.

Table 1. Increase in the dynamic parameters of the preparation of strong earthquake (Ms≥7.8) in SS Japan in September 2008. Dangerous is potentially zone D.

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