MONITORING AND FORECAST
JAPAN, Ìs≥7.8
Seismic situation in Tokyo area /10 July 2008/.
Situation in the system.
At present, on July 10, 2008, seismic situation in the system did not change and it is developed on the scenario unfavorable for Tokyo. Communication dated June 15, 2008 remains valid. Strong earthquake from Ms=8.3 and by the depth of center to 25 km is expected in Tokyo region in the zone C (see Fig.1) from July 25 to August 25, 2008. Seismic situation is developed on the scenario of historical earthquake to 1703 Genroku.
On Fig.2 and in Table 1 it is shown an increase in the dynamic parameters of the preparation of strong earthquake from M> 7.8 in the system in July - August with the condition of the seismic calm*. Purely mathematically danger is felt on August 9, 2008.
*Seismic calm means that within the framework of the system during this period will not occur earthquake from M>6.0.
P.S. If in July in the system occurs, at least, one earthquake from M=7.0, then Tokyo will rescue and danger will move from the zones A, B, C to the north, into the zone of the instability of Fukushima Ken Oki earthquake, 1938.11.05.
Fig.1. Sagami Trough. The strong earthquake of M8.3 is expected in the zone C from July 25 to August 25, 2008. Supposedly, the source of the expected earthquake can coincide with the source of 1703 Genroku.
Fig.2. Dynamics of an increase in the probability of strong earthquake in SS Japan in July - August (dotted line) 2008. P the probability of strong earthquake (red region), Pk probability on the cumulative energy (vegetable), Pw probability on the entropy (dark-blue). P - with the line indicates the conditional probability (gray and blue).
Table 1. Increase in the dynamic parameters of the preparation of strong earthquake (Ms≥7.8) in SS Japan in July - August 2008, with relative seismic calm in the system (with a constant parameter Ê).
|
|
DATA |
PREPARATION |
ENERGY |
PROBABILITY |
PLACE |
|||
|
|
CUMULAT. ENERGY. CLASS |
ENTROPY |
MAGNITUDE |
BY ENERGY |
BY ENTROPY |
IN ATTRACTOR |
Name, faults |
|
|
|
Y.M.D. |
K |
W |
Ms |
Pê |
Pw |
P |
FORECAST |
|
Nearest Critical Values |
1923.09.01 Kanto |
16.726-16.742 |
18.339-18.345 |
8.0 |
Zone À |
|||
|
1953.11.25 Boso Oki |
16.764 |
18.351
|
8.3 |
Zone  |
||||
|
1703.12.31 Genroku |
16.756-16.762? |
18.345-18.351? |
8.3 |
Zone Ñ |
||||
|
Preparation of the strong earthquake July-August |
2008 Jun.30 2008 Jul.10 2008 Jul.20 2008 Jul. 31 2008 Aug. 10 2008 Aug. 20 2008 Aug. 31
|
16.756 16.756 16.756 16.756 16.756 16.756 16.756 |
18.330 18.334 18.337 18.341 18.345 18.348 18.353 |
|
64.44% 64.44% 64.44% 64.44% 64.44% 64.44% 64.44% |
59.31% 59.54% 59.77% 60.01% 60.24% 60.46% 60.68% |
38.22% 38.37% 38.52% 38.67% 38.82% 38.96% 39.11% |
Danger Danger Danger Danger |
|
FORECAST
|
2008.07.25-2008.08.25
|
16.756
|
18.340-18.351
|
8.3
|
64.44% |
60.01%-60.57% |
38.67%-39.03% |
Dangerous Zone Ñ Tokyo |
>Home
Copyright © 2007 Ltd. «Earthquake Prediction Centre «GeoQuake»». All rights reserved.
The site protects by law about the protection of copyrights RF and by international standards about the protection of copyrights.
It contains business data of the company "Earthquake Prediction Centre "GeoQuake",
which is its exclusively property.