About the seismic situation in Tokyo

INFORMATION ABOUT THE SEISMIC SITUATION IN TOKYO AREA.

Thus far /on June 5, 2008/ situation is developed on the unfavorable for Tokyo scenario. Seismic calm is poor omen. There remains only to wait.

All previous results of the forecast relative to strong earthquake in Tokyo region remain valid. In the communication /May 8, 2008/ will renew table 1. The most dangerous months July-August. Taking into account the uncertainty of the point of the instability of the 1923 Kanto earthquake, the most dangerous calculated period is felt on July 25 - on August 15.

To Fig.1 is given the prognostic map of the maximum intensity of seismic shaking in the region of Tokyo and Yokohama from the expected earthquake М=8.3. Calculations are carried out without taking into account local soil conditions for the point source, located in the peninsula Miura at the depth of 15 km. The source will be timed to the Sagami trough, focal-mechanism reverse of right-lateral of slip.

The waves of tsunami on the southeastern coast of the Boso peninsula are possible.

According to the estimations of Japanese experts such earthquake in Tokyo area can cause loss more than $65 billion, it is possible to lead to the loss of the large number of people and to destruction of hundreds of thousands of buildings.

TURNING TO THE CITIZENS OF THE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES OF THOSE PLANNING THE TRIP IN TOKYO in Summer 2008,

in connection with forecast of catastrophic earthquake in Tokyo area.

Our information possibilities are very limited, and indeed many citizens, tourists, travellers, businessmens, civil agents plan the trip to Tokyo. I consider as my duty to inform and to recommend, as far as possible, not to attend the regions of Tokyo and Yokohama in July - August 2008 (at least, from July 25 to August 15). As far as possible, I will inform about the seismic situation. You follow also the communications of government organs and seismologists of Japan.

To the inhabitants of Tokyo and Yokohama, and also to people, which proved to be themselves there in the summer months I recommend to be vigilant to the weak seismic quakes (with magnitudes close to 5.0 inside the yellow circle on Fig.1), which can occur in the future focal zone (in the region of Tokyo bay) for several hours before the strong earthquake. For this purpose I recommend to follow and operationally to react to the communications of Tokyo radio and television. I think that such preventive quakes will occur before the expected earthquake - and this the most reliable is forerunner.

To unenlightened I want to resemble that in Japan functions the national Earthquake Early Warning system, ensuring the delivery of warning about the earthquakes for tens of seconds before the extensive destruction. If you are situated out of the epicentral zone, then this time must be sufficient to man for adopting the urgent measures of its safety, but to the leading and responsible people for the cessation of nuclear reactors, power stations, reduction in the speed of the trains, which move along the high-speed railroad main lines and so on.

However, for the expected earthquake in the zone of maximum destruction this time will compose several seconds (to 6 sec.), which is clearly insufficient for adopting the decisive actions for its rescuing.

Since July 25, 2008 I recommend to constantly hold with itself mobile phones by those charged, (as far as possible, and the spare set of storage batteries), lanterns and drugs of the first need for. Remember that your safety, first of all, is located in your hands.

5 June 2008

Akopian S.Ts.

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