MONITORING AND FORECAST, JAPAN, Мs≥7.8

The situation in SS Japan. Until the end of January 2011 the south-east of Hokkaido can be prepared a strong earthquake with M=8.3.                                       /December 15, 2010/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SS  Japan

Large cities: Tokyо, Yokohama, Kobe, Kyoto, Nagoya, Sendai, Akita, Fukuoka, Hiroshima.

Seismicity due to the complex interaction of three plates: Pacific in the east, Philippines in the south and Eurasian (Sea of Japan) on the West and the northwest, forming Benioff zones (volcanism and deep-focus seismicity to 700 km).

Last strong earthquake Tokachi Oki (SE of Hokkaido) September 25, 2003, М=8.3 (depth 42 km).

 

 

 

FORECAST, Мs≥7.8. Currently, 15 December 2010, in the system continues the preparation of a strong earthquake with M=8.3 in the area of E1 (Fig.1). Track is developed, in accordance with the Communication, March 15, 2010, and by Bulletin 003. It came close to the instability of Tokachi Oki earthquake (M8.3) and to the end of January 2011 will be located near it (Fig.2). In order to track got in a zone of instability is sufficient energy of a quake with a magnitude M=6.4, which completely fill the shortfall of the cumulative energy. The coordinates of the track, the probabilities and forecast of strong earthquake with Ms>7.8 in the seismic system of Japan on December 15 are listed in Tab.1 and Fig.3. If by the end of January 2011 earthquake does not happen, the danger of a major earthquake in the next three years will be localized in the northeast of Honshu in the region E, Fig.1, which over time have decreased somewhat.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1. The growth dynamic parameters of the preparation of strong earthquake (Ms≥7.8) in SS Japan on December 15, 2010. Potentially dangerous is the area E1.

 

 

DATA

PREPARATION

ENERGY

PROBABILITY

PLACE

 

 CLASS

ENTROPY

MAGNITUDE

BY ENERGY

BY ENTROPY

BY ATTRACTOR

Name, Faults

 

Y.М.D.

K

W

Ms

 Pк

 Pw

P

FORECAST

Nearest

Critical Values

2003.09.25

Tokachi Oki

16.861

18.616

8.3

      

Zone E1

 

Preparation of the strong earthquake 

 

2008 июл.10

 2008 авг.10

 2008 авг.20

 2008 авг.31

2008 сен.30

2008 окт.31

2008 ноя.30

2008 дек.31

2009 июн.30

2009 авг.12

2010 мрт.31

2010 июл.31

2010 дек.31

16.756

16.793 16.793 

16.793

16.793

16.793

16.793

16.808

16.811

16.837

16.848

16.853

16.854

18.334

  18.346  

  18.350  

  18.354  

18.366

18.378

18.389

18.400

18.462

18.482

18.546

18.579

18.618

 

 

64.44%

66.81% 

66.81% 

66.81% 

66.81%

66.81%

66.81%

67.76%

68.13%

70.11%

70.84%

71.14%

71.26%

59.54%

  60.31% 

  60.55% 

  60.80% 

 61.51%

62.19%

62.86%

 63.52%

 67.13%

68.23%

71.73%

73.14%

75.07%

38.37%

40.29%

40.45%  40.62% 

41.09%

41.55%

42.00%

43.04%

45.73%

47.83%

50.81%

52.27%

53.50%

No danger 

Was

danger

in zone С

No danger

No danger

No danger

No danger

No danger

No danger

No danger

No danger

Danger

in zone E1

FORECAST

At 2010.12.15-

2011.01.30

16.861

18.616

8.3

 

    

Pot.Danger

Zone Е1

Fig.1. SS Japan. Controlled area of earthquake prediction with M≥7.8 and earthquake-indicators. From 15 December to end January 2011 strong earthquake with M=8.3 can be prepared in the area of E1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fig.2. Fragment of track diagram for SS Japan on December 15, 2010. Until the end of January 2011 the track will be lower circumvent the instability region earthquake of 2003. Energy deficit is equal to the energy of M6.4 earthquake. 

Fig.3. Dynamics of an increase the probability of strong earthquake in SS Japan on December 15, 2010.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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 Game into seismic chess continues ...

... Nature in March 2010 to make moves in the form of moderate-small earthquakes that do not significantly changed the situation. Now the position is close to critical, which will continue until the end of January 2011. During this time, nature can make a mistake or surrender, then there will a major earthquake in the region of Hokkaido. If nature will pause and then play correctly, then the party will continue for several years.                                                                                                                                        Akopian. 15.12.2010