ÌONITORING AND FORECAST, JAPAN, Ìs≥7.8

Situation in SS Japan after earthquake dated March 14, 2010, M6.5 on SE from Sendai, Honshu, Japan. This earthquake sharply raised the probability of the moderate earthquake of M6.7 in the subsystem...                                                                      /March 15, 2010/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SS  Japan

Large cities: Tokyî, Yokohama, Kobe, Kyoto, Nagoya, Sendai, Akita, Fukuoka, Hiroshima.

Seismicity due to the complex interaction of three plates: Pacific in the east, Philippines in the south and Eurasian (Sea of Japan) on the West and the northwest, forming Benioff zones (volcanism and deep-focus seismicity to 700 km).

Last strong earthquake Tokachi Oki (SE of Hokkaido) September 25, 2003, Ì=8.3 (depth 42 km).

 

 

 

FORECAST, Ìs≥7.8. At present, on March 15, 2010, after earthquake-indicator on March 14 ☼, in the system continues the preparation of strong earthquake from M=8.3 in zone E1 (see Fig.1). Track is developed, in accordance with the Communication, August 13, 2009, and by Bulletin 002, on the scenario of earthquake Tokachi Oki (M8.3) and will reach the unstable region of this earthquake toward the end December 2010 - January 2011. So that the track would fall into the zone of the instability of this earthquake is now sufficient energy of one earthquake with magnitude 6.7, which will completely fill the scarcity cumulative energy. Coordinates of track and the probability of strong earthquake from Ms>7.8 in the seismic system Japan are on March 15 given to Tab.1 and Fig.2.

 

FORECAST, 6.6≤Ms<7.4. (Subsystem NS north of Honshu from pref. Ibaraki to Miyagi, Fig.1). In Bulletin 002 we lowered the threshold magnitudes of forecasted earthquakes for this subsystem to 6.6. There we forecast, that in the subsystem at the beginning 2012 can be prepared the earthquake from M=6.7. Earthquake on March 14 ☼ had a magnitude 6.5 close to the threshold for this subsystem and sharply changed seismic situation. Until March 14 the probability of strong earthquake was small P=0.50% (Pw=3.71%, Pk=13.33%), afterward it jumped P=3.06% (Pw=4.82%, Pk=63.51%) (see Fig.3). Fig.3 show that after earthquake-indicator dated March 14 accumulated high cumulative energy, and growth rate probability of entropy very high. Now in the local zone S1 SE Sendai, east of pref. Fukushima (see Fig.1) within 2-3 months (to the end of May) can occur earthquake with magnitude 6.7.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1. Increase in the dynamic parameters of the preparation of strong earthquake (Ms≥7.8) in SS Japan on March 14, 2010. Dangerous is potentially zone Å1.

 

 

DATA

PREPARATION

ENERGY

PROBABILITY

PLACE

 

 CLASS

ENTROPY

MAGNITUDE

BY ENERGY

BY ENTROPY

BY ATTRACTOR

Name, Faults

 

Y.Ì.D.

K

W

Ms

 Pê

 Pw

P

FORECAST

Nearest

Critical Values

2003.09.25

Tokachi Oki

16.861

18.616

8.3

      

Zone E1

 

Preparation of the strong earthquake 

 

2008 èþë.10

 2008 àâã.10

 2008 àâã.20

 2008 àâã.31

2008 ñåí.30

2008 îêò.31

2008 íîÿ.30

2008 äåê.31

2009 èþí.30

2009 àâã.12

2010 ìðò.31

16.756

16.793 16.793 

16.793

16.793

16.793

16.793

16.808

16.811

16.837

16.848

18.334

  18.346  

  18.350  

  18.354  

18.366

18.378

18.389

18.400

18.462

18.482

18.546

 

 

64.44%

66.81% 

66.81% 

66.81% 

66.81%

66.81%

66.81%

67.76%

68.13%

70.11%

70.84%

59.54%

  60.31% 

  60.55% 

  60.80% 

 61.51%

62.19%

62.86%

 63.52%

 67.13%

68.23%

71.73%

38.37%

40.29%

40.45%  40.62% 

41.09%

41.55%

42.00%

43.04%

45.73%

47.83%

50.81%

No danger 

Was

danger

in zone Ñ

No danger

No danger

No danger

No danger

No danger

No danger

No danger

FORECAST

At 2010.12

16.861

18.616

8.3

 

    

Pot.Danger

Zone Å1

Fig.1. Japan. Controlled region of the forecast of earthquakes from M≥7.8. in SS and from M≥6.6 in subsystem NS. After the indicator-earthquakes from March 14, 2010, Ì6.5 in the local zone S1 in April-May is possible earthquake Ì=6.7. Strong earthquake with Ì=8.3 can be prepared in the zone Å1 at the end of 2010.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fig.3. Dynamics of an increase the probability of  moderate from M≥6.6 earthquake in subsystem NS after quake in March 14, 2010.

Fig.2. Dynamics of an increase the probability of strong earthquake in SS Japan after quake in March 14, 2010.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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☼ Earthquake SE of Sendai, Honshu, Japan

2010.03.14  08:08:05  37.78N  141.56E  H=39 km  Ì=6.5  

 Game into seismic chess continues ...

  ... Nature since August 2009 made a pause and after 7 months made a move (in the form moderate earthquake), which did not significantly change situation. If nature will continue to be cautious and to make such passive moves, then party can be completed toward the end this year by strong earthquake!?

    S.Ts. Akopian. 15.03.2010