MONITORING AND FORECAST. SS South Kuril (RF)-Hokkaido (JAPAN),  Мs≥7.8

Situation in the SS after the earthquake June 5, 2009, М6.4 off the south-east of Hokkaido.                                       /June 06, 2009/

Situation in the system.

   At present, on June 06, 2009, earthquakes from Мs≥7.8 are not expected. Track is located in the attractor, there is a scarcity of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators (see.Tab.1). As can be seen from Table 1, earthquake dated June 5, 2009 (see Fig.1) somewhat completed the scarcity of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes. Track continues developed on the scenario close to the preparation of Tokachi Oki earthquake on September 25, 2003. As it was noted in the communication dated September 13, 2008 and into Bulletin 001 on our site, will within the next few years occur earthquakes from 6.0<M<7.0. Earthquake dated June 5, 2009, M6.4 ☼ were some of them. Thus far situation is developed in accordance with the forecast dated September 13, 2008.

  Potentially hazardous remain zones А or В (Fig.1). Now track will reach the unstable region of these earthquakes by November 2011. Here, at the end of 2011 can be prepared earthquake M8.2 and with the focal depth to 45 km. After the indicator-earthquake of ☼ the probability of strong earthquake in the system Р=3.2% (on entropy P_W=22.7%, and on cumulative energy P_K=13.9%) (see Fig.2 and Tab.1).

  Inhabitants and tourists of Hokkaido and southern Kurile Islands can be calm, thus far danger from the strong earthquakes from Ms≥7.4, which can cause noticeable damage, destruction and tsunami, them does not threaten.

Fig.1. South Kuril (Russia), Hokkaido (Japan). Controlled region of the forecast of earthquakes from M≥7.8. Strong earthquakes are not expected. Is shown the three epicentres of indicator-earthquakes. On the previous are potentially dangerous the zones A and B. Close to November 2011 in one of them can be prepared M8.2 earthquake.

Fig.2. Dynamics of increase the probability of strong earthquake in SS South Kuril - Hokkaido on June 2009.

Table 1. The dynamic parameters of the preparation of strong earthquake (Ms≥7.8) in SS South Kuril - Hokkaido on June 2009.

☼ Earthquakes off the south-east of Hokkaido

2009.06.05  03:30:35    41.86N 143.40E    H=41 km    Мs=6.4       

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