MONITORING AND FORECAST
JAPAN, Ìs≥7.8
Since seismic situation in Tokyo region becomes very dangerous we decided to inform about it in real time.
Fig.1. Japan. The controlled region of the forecast of earthquakes with M≥7.8. Strong earthquake is expected in the zone A (Tokyo) from June through August 2008, Ì8.3. There is the small probability that the center will move into the zone Â.
Situation in system.
At present, 8 May 2008, situation in the system became more dangerous. Is expected strong earthquake from Ìs=8.3 by the focal depth to 25 km in the region of Tokyo (zone À on Fig.1). Dangerous period for the month approached. Now earthquake is expected from June through August 2008. The most dangerous period comes to 20-30 July.
Track is located in the attractor and approach a zone of the instability of the earthquakes Kanto 1923 (zone A) and Boso Oki 1953 (zone B) in central Japan. Thus far track is developed on the scenario of the earthquake Kanto 1923. Now track has coordinates Ê=16.725 and W=18.318 (see Tab.1). The coordinates of the nearest point of instability (earthquake of Kanto) are equal Ê=16.726 and W=18.339, which the track will reach to the end of July 2008, if in the system not it is noticeable seismic activity.
As can be seen from table 1, earthquake near east cost of Honshu from Ì=6.7 at 07.05.2008 ☼, as we forecast, almost completely liquidated the scarcity of cumulative energy of track on the comparison by the point of the instability of the earthquake of Kanto. Now forecasted earthquake can occur without the strong foreshock. This earthquake to 2% raised the probability of strong earthquake on the cumulative energy and drew nearer dangerous period on 20 days.
Now the probability of strong earthquake in the system is equal to Ð=36.54% (by entropy PW=58.60%, and by cumulative energy PK=62.35%) (see Fig.2 and Tab.1).
Fig.2. Dynamics of increase the probability of strong earthquake in SS Japan at May of 2008.
Table 1. Dynamic parameters of the preparation of strong earthquake (Ìs≥7.8) in SS Japan.
|
|
DATA |
PREPARATION |
ENERGY |
PROBABILITY |
PLACE |
|||
|
|
CUMULAT. ENERGY. CLASS |
ENTROPY |
MAGNITUDE |
BY ENERGY |
BY ENTROPY |
IN ATTRACTOR |
Name, faults |
|
|
|
Y.M.D. |
K |
W |
Ms |
Pê |
Pw |
P |
FORECAST |
|
Near Critical Value |
16.726
|
18.339
|
Zone À |
|||||
|
Preparation of strong earthquake |
2008 Jan. 2008 Mar. 2008 Apr. 2008 May
|
16.703 16.703 16.704 16.725
|
18.273 18.296 18.307 18.318
|
|
60.83% 60.83% 60.90% 62.35% |
55.09% 57.23% 57.91% 58.60% |
33.51% 34.81% 35.26% 36.54% |
|
|
FORECAST
|
2008.06-08
|
16.726
|
18.339
|
8.3
|
62.35% |
59.91% |
37.36% |
Dangerous Zone À TOKYO |
☼ Earthquake near east cost of Honshu
2008.05.07 16:45:18 36.20N 141.47E H=35 êì Ìs=6.7
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