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SITUATION IN SEISMIC SYSTEMS OF MYANMAR
TSUNAMIGENIC MEGA EARTHQUAKE IS EXPECTED

Earthquake in territory of Myanmar near to border with Thailand and Laos from March, 24, 2011, М7.2 is successfully predicted in SS East Myanmar. Mega earthquake to prepare in Bay of Bengal along the coast of Myanmar. /March 27, 2010/

SS East Myanmar. Forecast of earthquakes with 7.0≤Ms<7.5. Earthquake ☼ has occurred on March 24, 2011 in SS East Myanmar. The forecast of this earthquake has been given in the Bulletin 003 from Sep. 17, 2010. There it has been told: "On the Border Myanmar and the state of Yunnan, (China, in the region of Luxi, Mengdingjie) occurs the preparation of earthquake from M>7.0. Probability of earthquake 61.00% (Рk=84.78%, Pw=71.98%). If earthquake occurs within the next few years its magnitude will be equal to 7.3. After 2015 the magnitude of the expected earthquake will grow to 7.5, and source will migrate to the east, to the area of the source of the devastating earthquake of 1970, Tonghai (Yunnan Province, China)". In Fig. 1 the zone A where earthquake with М=7.1-7.3 was expected is shown. The system treats the category badly defined, we have three completed seismic cycles, so the deviation of the place is 200-250 km. From Fig. 1 shows that the zone A and seismic source of earthquake ☼ concern by our definition of a homogeneous seismotectonic zones with identical focal mechanisms (left strick-slip). Earthquake has occurred within Shan-Thai block. Probably the fault zone A has been locked, and at earthquake there was a new faulting on the western continuation of left Dien Bien Phu Fault zones. The map of seismic hazard has misfired again, on a map this zone VI-VII ball, actually in epicentral area was VII-VIII. Till March 24 the probability of earthquake with Ms≥7.0 in system was high Р=61.72% (P_W=84.78% P_K=72.80%) (see Fig.2). After earthquake ☼ a Province of Yunnan in China to become less dangerous.
The most disturbing that the final stage of preparation of mega-disaster in Bay of Bengal in a coastal zone Myanmar begins this earthquake.

Fig.1. Mega SS Myanmar and subsystems East and West. Are shown a predicted zone A and source area of earthquake on March 24, 2011, М=7.2. В - is a zone of expectation of earthquake with М7.6, С - with М=7.8-8.1, D - an expectation zone mega earthquakes with М=8.8, D1 - a zone of the possible scenario preparation of earthquake with М=7.8-8.1, R - potentially dangerous zone for М=7.4-7.5 in SS North of Microplate Burma.

CHANGE of FORECASTS after earthquake ☼ for SS Myanmar and East Myanma, resulted in the Bulletin 003
SS Myanmar. Forecast of earthquake with Мs≥7.8. SS Myanmar and subsystem relate to badly determined according to our classification; therefore the quality of forecast here poor. To forecast the waiting time of earthquake is impossible. The track started since 1946 and has very high values of entropy and relative deficiency of earthquakes-indicators energy. Earthquake ☼ has a little filled shortage of earthquakes-indicators energy and has approached time of expected destructive earthquake. Potentially dangerous in the north of Sagaing Fault (the zone C in Fig.1), there can be prepared strong earthquake with М=7.8. The probability of earthquake has a little increased P=70.70% (Pk=84.34%, Pw=83.83%), there were 70.00 % (83.66 %, 83.70 %) (see Fig.4).
Subsystem East Myanmar (Shan plateau, including Yunnan Province, China). Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.5. Earthquake ☼ has raised a track and has lowered potential danger of strong earthquake in a province of Yunnan, in area of source of destructive earthquake of 1970 Tonghai (Yunnan Province, China). Potential danger moves on northern segment of Sagaing Fault to a zone B on Fig.1. The probability of strong earthquake in B after ☼ has sharply increased, on cumulative energy Рk=40.71%, but while Р=0 % (see Fig.5). It is possible to argue that strong earthquake with М=7.5-7.6 here can occur at any time, final date 2016. It is well visible on the diagram, resulted on Fig.5.

TSUNAMIGENIC MEGA EARTHQUAKE IN BAY OF BENGAL ALONG COAST MYANMAR IS EXPECTED.

MEGA SS Mynmar. Forecast of earthquakes with Мs≥8.3. Fig.1 shows the SS Mega Myanmar. In spite of the fact that the mega system treats the category badly defined, the analysis shows that tsunamigenic mega-earthquake with М=8.7-8.8 has already ripened. The track has very high values of entropy W=20.291 and K=17.460. On entropy value this third after Japanese catastrophe of 03.11.2011 and the Chilean earthquake 1960. On cumulative energy the fourth - it is comparable with Sychuan earthquake in China on May 12, 2008 and much more entropies of Nikobar earthquake on December 26, 2004 (see the Table). Disaster will occur till the end of 2012 as by then entropy will reach for this region of critical value. It will be dadicated to the focal area of historical earthquake of Arakan from April 2, 1762, М8.6, at the contact surface of Indian plate and block of Myanmar, in zone D on Fig.1. As there is a deficiency of cumulative energy earthquake on March 24, 2011, М=7.2 ☼ is the beginning of the final stage of preparation of mega-disaster, and earthquakes-indicators with М=7.5-7.8 on Sagaing transform fault (zone B, C) can serve as precursors of mega-disaster. The probability of a mega catastrophe P=89.00% (Pk=95.50%, Pw=93.10%) see a Fig.3.
Such mega-earthquake and tsunami in a coastal area of Myanmar on scales of possible human victims and material losses only in Myanmar, Bangladesh and India will surpass all catastrophic earthquakes of the world, in consciousnesses of people it will be really a doomsday.

FORECASTS for SS West Myanmar (see Fig.1), resulted in the Bulletin 003 haven't changed, but as the probability of Mega-earthquake after event from March 24, 2011 ☼ has increased forecasts for systems of the west Myanmar can be considered as the possible scenario of development of seismicity. Under this scenario it can be dangerous in zone D1 in Fig.1. Potentially dangerous zone R in Fig.1 near Rangoon is supervised in a subsystem the North of the Microplate Burma.

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