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MONITORING AND FORECAST OF MEGA-EARTHQUAKES IN ANATOLY, MYANMAR, MEXICO, KAMCHATKA                                                                                     /May 31, 2011/

I. MEGA SS ANATOLIA (Eastern Turkey), Мs≥7.8. After catastrophic earthquake in Japan we have considered mega-earthquake possibility in SS Anatoly in the east of Turkey with magnitude М≥7.8. In Communications from March 2, 2010 and on March 9, 2010 it was told about a critical situation in the east of Turkey. Forecasts of strong earthquake there became on the basis of SS Armenian Uplands with Мs≥6.6. Actually, preparation of strong earthquake which we predicted and expected in SS Armenian Uplands in 2010 has outgrown in preparation mega earthquakes which now we will predict in Mega SS Anatoly Мs≥7.8. Mega SS Anatoly treats the category of badly defined. Here were two earthquakes Ararat in 1840 and Erzincan 1939 on the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). As a result we have one authentic come to the end seismic cycle. In Tab.1 and in Fig.1 values and a fragment of a track preparation of catastrophic earthquake with М=7.9 on the beginning of June, 2011 are resulted. As the system is badly defined, we have calculated attractor on points of earthquakes 1903 and 1939 (a yellow line on a Fig.1):
                                                                                                       K=0.809W+1.049                      1903-1939        (1)
For May 2011 K=16.792. Substituting in eq.(1) we will find critical value of entropy Wk=19.449. At seismic calm entropy will reach this value by the end of 2012. Strong earthquake with М=7.9 is already prepared. The rupture model at expected catastrophe which we resulted in the form of animation NAF move01, remains in force.

 

	Date	Fi	La	K	W	Ks	Ms	Pк	Pw	P	Place
1	1737.10.17	51.10	158.00	-	-		8.6?				S Kamchatka
2	1841.05.17	52.50	159.50	-	-		8.4?				SE Kamchatka
3	1952.11.04	52.30	161.00	17.599	20.248	18.0	9.0				SE Kamchatka
4	2011.05.30			17.449	20.047			92.78%	80.70%	74.98%

	Date	Fi	La	K	W	Ks	Ms	Pк	Pw	P	Place
1	1907.04.15	16.70	99.20W	-	-	17.2	8.4				Guerrero Coast
2	1932.06.03	19.57	104.42W	17.478?	19.612?	17.2	8.4				Jalisco-Colima Coast
3	1985.09.19	18.19	102.53W	17.592	20.038	17.0	8.2				Michoacan Coast,
4	2011.05.30			17.153	19.379	16.7	8.2	49.84%	48.46%	24.15%

	Date	Fi	La	K	W	Ks	Ms	Pк	Pw	P	Place
1	1762.04.02	21.50	92.00	17.555?	20.444?	17.7	8.8				Arakan
2	1897.06.12	26.00	90.50	17.249?	19.569?	17.6	8.7				Assam, Shillong Plateau
3	2011.05.30			17.611	20.531	17.7	8.8				Аракан

	Date	Fi	La	K	W	Ks	Ms	Pк	Pw	P	Place
1	1840.07.02	39.50	43.90	-	-						Ararat
2	1939.12.26	39.70	39.70	16.707	19.343	16.7	7.8				NAF
3	2011.05.30			16.792	19.431	16.9	7.9				NAF

Fig.4. The track diagram Mega SS Myanmar. On earthquake-indicators it is found attractor (a yellow line). Hypothetical points of instability of earthquakes 1762 and 1897 are shown. Till the end of 2012 track will be in instability area in a coastal zone of Arakan in the Northeast of Bengal Bay.

Fig.1. The track diagram Mega SS Anatoly. On earthquakes 1903 and 1939 it is found attractor (a yellow line). Till the end of 2012 track will be in a zone of instability of the North Anatolian Fault in the east of Turkey.

II. MEGA SS MYANMAR, Мs≥8.4. In the Message from March 27, 2011 forecasts of mega-earthquake did on the basis of SS Myanmar with Мs≥7.8. In system mega-earthquake with М=8.8 is already prepared, therefore the further monitoring we will do in Mega SS Myanmar with Мs≥8.4. The information very poor, two accidents 1762, 1897 (see Tab.2) and not come to the end last seismic cycle are known. The subduction zone of Arakan is locked since 1762, almost 250 years. Last catastrophic earthquake in Mega SS has occurred in the north of system in 1897. This earthquake has caused destructions in territory 300000 км2 with average radius 250 km (the maximum displacement - to 11 m, 1500 persons were lost) in India, Butane, Bangladesh, the western Myanmar. In system in the north of bay of Bengal collision of the Indian plate with SE Asia has generated preserved (now inactive) subduction zone in the form of a huge funnel "the filled up" 20 km a layer of sedimentary rocks. At movement of a huge elastic Indian plate to NE, its segment around bay of Bengal is deformed and plunges, is more true on an hour hand is braided and pressed under SE Asia. This segment of the Indian plate is pressed in the north under a plateau Shillong, and in the east is linked to the Arakan micro-plate which shows seismic activity on right lateral strick-slip of Sagaing, Kabaw and Kaldan faults (see Fig.2,3). All these processes are supervised within the limits of seismic system. When entropy reaches critical value (approximately 100-150 years of times) the Arakan microplate is strengthened (the above-stated internal active faults are locked) then periodically works either a zone Shillong or Arakan. Now turn beyond Araka. In a Fig.3 red line potentially dangerous locked area on a subduction plane to depths of 30-35 km where the big pressure are presumably concentrated is shown. The power diagram and the stored experience show that catastrophic earthquake with М=8.8 here is prepared. This is confirmed by GPS observations. For instability area on the track diagram in case of Myanmar, in comparison with Japan and Chile, static production of entropy prevails over the dynamic. It means that the process is slower and long "ripen" in time, and loss of stability (subduction) can occur suddenly, without preliminary seismic activity.
In Tab.2 and Fig.4 values and track fragment of preparation of catastrophic earthquake with М=8.8 on the beginning of June, 2011 are resulted. The saved up entropy is equal W=20.531. This value inferior only to record value of entropy of recent earthquake in Japan (W=20.586). As the system is badly defined, we have calculated attractor on points of earthquake-indicators (a yellow line on Fig.4):
                                                                                                                  K=0.373W+9.949                            (2)
For May 2011 K=17.611. Substituting in eq.(2) we will find critical value of entropy Wk=20.542. At seismic calm entropy will reach this value by February, 2013. So, till the end of 2012 on NE Bay of Bengal there can be a catastrophic earthquake with М=8.8 and a powerful tsunami.

Fig.3. Schematic cut on profile WE from Fig.2. In the north of Bengal Bay, in zone of dipping of the Indian plate under SE Asia the Arakan seismoactive microplate which is linked to the Indian plate was formed. The subduction zone (blue lines) is seismically locked and covered 20 km. layer of sedimentary rocks. It in the north rests and pressed under the Plateau Shillong. Within 250-300 years periodically activated subduction zone is in the north of Plato Shillong in the coastal zone of Arakan, causing the big destructions and tsunami waves. By the end of 2012 the locked zone between the Indian plate and the Arakan microplate can work. Here mega-earthquake with М=8.8 is prepared.

Fig.2. Seismic sources 1762 and 1897 in the north of Bengal Bay. 20 km sedimentary thickness and preserved subduction zone on profile WE is shown on Fig.3. By a red line potentially dangerous locked area on a plane of subduction to depths of 30-35 km where the big pressure are presumably concentrated is shown.

III. MEGA SS MEXICO, Мs≥8.2. In the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 forecasts of strong earthquakes in the central Mexico did on the basis of SS with Мs≥7.8. There we predicted that "the Situation in system remains critical, the track is in attractor. Dangerously in a coastal zone in the south-southwest of Oaxaca, strong earthquake with М=7.9 here is expected. There is a deficiency of energy equal to energy of earthquake-indicator with М=7.2. Most likely earthquake will be trigger or will have strong foreshock with М=7.2... Depending on development of seismicity danger can migrate in a coastal zone Acapulco (staff of Guerrero). The situation will be resolved to the middle of 2011". This forecast lasts till the end of 2012. For the forecast Mega earthquakes Mexico responsible for preparation of catastrophic earthquakes with Мs≥8.2 (see Fig.5) has been allocated Mega SS. Taking into account strong aftershocks as such earthquakes have ranked 1907, M8.2 (Guerrero Coast), 1932, M8.4 (Jalisco-Colima Coast, fatalities 45), 1985, M8.2 (Michoacan Coast, 9500 people killed) (see Tab.3).
In Tab.3 and on Fig.6 values and fragment of track preparation of catastrophic earthquake with М=8.2 on the beginning of June, 2011 are resulted. It is visible that the track has the big deficiency of energy earthquake-indicators and while is much more low attractor, zones of instability 1932 and 1985. Monitoring in systems with lower threshold magnitudes shows that the next five years in the central Mexico the cascade of strong earthquakes with М=7.2-7.9 is expected. From Fig.6 it is visible that only after such activization mega-earthquake preparation in the central Mexico by 2016 is possible. We will estimate when there can be an earthquake-indicator with М=7.9. We have calculated instability area on points of strong earthquake-indicators (yellow line on Fig.5):
                                                                                                                  K=0.718W+3.209                              (2)
For May 2011 K=17.153. Substituting in eq.(2) we will find critical value of entropy Wk=19.421. At seismic calm entropy will reach this value by February-March, 2013. So before this date in a coastal zone of Oaxaca preparation of strong earthquake with М=7.9 is possible. The probability such earthquakes is resulted on Fig.7 and in Tab.3.

V. THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PREPARATIONS OF MEGA-EARTHQUAKES. All seismic systems for mega-earthquakes are badly defined therefore quality of the forecast the bad. We will carry out the comparative analysis of their tracks. On Fig.11 in the above described systems tracks of preparations of mega-accidents are combined with addition of a track for California. In California and Anatoly seismotectonic situation are a little similar. These are zones of transform faults. Tracks of California and Anatoly also are similar and are grouped slightly more low. Seismic systems on Kamchatka, Mexico and Bay of Bengal are in zones of subduction. Their tracks also are similar and are grouped a little above. In Tab.5 parameters of tracks on the beginning of June, 2011 and a prognostic waiting time of mega-accidents are resulted.

IV. MEGA SS KAMCHATKA, Мs≥8.4. In the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 we did monitoring and the forecast of strong earthquakes of Kamchatka with Мs≥7.8. While strong earthquakes on Kamchatka aren't expected. In 1952 there was a catastrophic earthquake with М=9.0 at ocean near to a southern extremity of the Kamchatka peninsula, Russia. The tsunami formed at it (the height of waves reached 13–18m) has almost completely destroyed Severo-Kurilsk (island Paramushir) and has led to death more than 2 thousand persons. Catastrophic earthquakes occurred in 1737 and 1841. Under historical data these earthquakes also have formed powerful waves of tsunami. We have decided to estimate possibility of repetition of such accident. On frequency, the next strong earthquake it is necessary for 2059. In revealed Mega SS Kamchatka we have only one authentically come to the end seismic cycle for earthquake 1952 (see Tab.4). On Fig.8,9 contours Mega SS Kamchatka and a fragment of the track diagram are resulted. We have reconsidered and have specified values of instability for earthquake 1952. On size of cumulative energy and entropy the Kamchatka earthquake moves on the third place after Japanese 2011 and the Chilean 1960 earthquakes. The track preparation of catastrophic earthquake while has deficiency energy of earthquake-indicators. At seismic calm entropy will reach a hypothetical zone of instability by the end of 2016. Earthquake with М=8.7 by then can be prepared. At activization of earthquake-indicators the situation can change. Probability of earthquake high, but a situation not dangerous (see Fig.10).

Fig.7. Dynamics growth of probability mega earthquakes with М≥8.2 in Mega SS Mexico for June 1, 2011.

Fig.10. Dynamics growth of probability mega earthquakes with М≥8.4 in Mega SS Kamchatka for June 1, 2011.

Fig.5. Mega SS Mexico М≥8.2. Are shown sources area mega earthquakes 1932 and 1985. Mega earthquake isn't prepared yet. Till the end of 2012 earthquake with М=7.9 in a coastal part of Oaxaca is expected. The potential sources are shown by red mugs. 

Fig.8. Mega SS Kamchatka М≥8.4. Are shown sources area mega earthquakes 1737, 1841 and 1952. Mega earthquake isn't prepared yet and till the end of 2016 it is not expected.

Fig.11. The combined track diagram of preparation of mega-earthquakes in the east of Turkey, in California, Mexico, on SE Kamchatka and Myanmar on the beginning of June 2011.

Fig.9. The track diagram Mega SS Kamchatka. The track on the beginning of June 2011 has the big deficiency of entropy in comparison with a track 1952. The hypothetical area of instability (yellow line) is estimated. By 2016 earthquake with М=8.7 in a coastal part of Kamchatka can be prepared.

Fig.6. The track diagram Mega SS Mexico. The track has the big deficiency energy of earthquake-indicators and while is much more low attractor mega earthquakes with М≥8.2. On earthquakes-indicators the line of instability for strong earthquakes-indicators (yellow line) is found. Till the end of 2012 earthquake with М=7.9 in a coastal part is expected.

	Place	K	W	Ms	Forecast
1	East Turkey, NAF	16.792	19.431	7.9	Before end 2012
2	Bay of Bengal, Arakan	17.611	20.531	8.8	Before end 2012
3	California	17.078	19.768	8.1	Before March 2014
4	Central Mexico	17.153	19.379	8.2	Before 2017
5	SE Kamchatka (RF)	17.449	20.047	8.4	After 2017