About prediction earthquake in Italy, April6,2009

ON THE FORECAST IN SS ITALY THE EARTHQUAKE

L'Aquila 2009.04.06 01:32:43 42.40N 13.32E H=10 kм, Ms=6.2 in the Central Italy.

In Bulletin 001 were included the results of monitoring and forecast of earthquakes in the seismic subsystems (SSS) Center, the North, and the South of Italy, but monitoring in SS Italy M≥6.2, including entire territory Italy and seismoactive areas of the near-boundary countries, it remained on the paid pages of our site (see FORECASTS, paid).

Retrospective analysis showed that the eathquake L'Aquila, which did not have a sufficient preparation in SSS Central Italy (see communication dated April 8, 2009), is forecast well precisely in SS Italy. In the preparation of this earthquake participated entire volume SS Italy. Monitoring in SS Italy would allow within the framework 6 months with the great reliability to predict instability in central Italy and to determine the closing date (April, 2009) of the expectation here of earthquake from M=6.2. If this did not occur, then instability after April had to migrate into the zone of deep-focus strong earthquakes on SE of Tyrrhenian sea.

In more detail are given below monitoring the L'Aquila earthquake in SS Italy and are corrected the results of the forecast of strong earthquakes for Italy as a result this earthquake.

Trajectory of strong earthquake preparation in SS Italy before the L'Aquila earthquake was located in the attractor and had values of cumulative energy К=14.93, and the entropy W=16.82. Preparation began since 1997 and at the moment earthquake (at the beginning April, 2009) the probability of expectation of strong earthquake was very high Pk=72%, Pw=84%, P=60% (see Fig.1). In the work of /Akopian S.Ts., 1998, (htm), p.15/ in the Table 2 were given the constants of a=-0.52 and b=23.5 of the law of seismic entropy production for the homogenous seismotectonic zone Ankona-Anzio (central Italy) in SS Italy. It was there noted, that negative coefficient a<0 for central Italy, indicates the zone with a high heat flow and the predominance of plastic deformations. As a result in the sources of strong earthquakes in this area normal mechanisms predominate.

Energy of the expected earthquake in the zone Ankona-Anzio in central Italy to the beginning April 2009 is calculated from the formula /Akopian S.Ts., 1998, (htm), pp.12,13/:

lgE (Joul) =K=aW+b=-0.52*16.82+23.5=14.8

which corresponds to earthquake with magnitude 6.2. Thus, April 2009 it was the last month, when was possible earthquake in central Italy, since with the great values of entropy according to the formula we obtain the magnitudes of the forecasted earthquakes less than 6.2, which is impossible. If earthquake in April did not occur, instability had to migrate into other zones within SS Italy.

Thus, still in 2008 on the basis of the method of seismic entropy in 6 months could be forecast that to the end April 2009 in central Italy is expected the strong earthquake from M=6.2, then, if this event does not occur, then instability (depending on seismic making more active) will move into another region

At the preparation of' L'Aquila earthquake important role played the plastic deformations in central Italy in the situation of the compressions, which in the result led to the earthquake with the normal mechanism. The method of seismic entropy, on the basis of the plate- tectonic model of Italy, proves, that for the preparation of L'Aquila earthquake responses entire volume of SS Italy. Therefore it is forecast well in SS Italy, and it is bad - in the subsystem Central Italy

The L'Aquila earthquake discharged SS Italy, which as a result led to a change in some results of the forecast for Italy. These results are given below.

	SS ITALY. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.2	Вероятность
	At present trajectory on the track diagram is located out of the attractor; therefore in Italy, in the territory of the near-boundary countries and on the Adriatic coast of Slovenia, Croatia and Montenegro earthquake with the magnitudes Ms≥6.2 are not expected.	P_K=0% P_W=0% Р= 0%
	SSS (Seismic Sub System) Central ITALY. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥5.8
	At present trajectory on the track diagram is located out of the attractor; therefore in central Italy (from Calabria to Perugia) earthquake with the magnitudes Ms≥5.8 are not expected. Let us recall that in this time can occur the indicator-earthquakes with magnitudes 5.4-5.7, which are also dangerous.	P_K=0% P_W=0% Р= 0%
	SSS Northern ITALY. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥5.7
	Trajectory on the track diagram is located in the attractor; therefore the probability of earthquake with the magnitude Ms≥5.7 on the north of Italy (from Perugia to the Alps) high. In spite of this, situation on the north of Italy, in the Alps, on the southeast of France in western Slovenia is not dangerous. The instability, which corresponds to M6.0 earthquake, is now localized into the region Ancona, Rimini, San Marino. It will be here dangerously until October 2010. Then instability will migrate to the north, to the area of Verona. At the end 2010 potentially dangerous can be on the northeast of Italy, on the Border with Slovenia and Austria, M5.7.	P_K=63% P_W=68% Р=43%
	SSS Southern ITALY. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.0
	А. Shallow H<40 km Situation in the system dangerous, trajectory is located in the attractor, there is a scarcity of energy indicator-earthquakes. In the West of Sicily can be prepared the earthquake from M~6.1, H<40 km. Most likely this earthquake will be trigger and on the time it will occur after shallow earthquake from M5.6 in the south of Italy, in Calabria or Sicily. The probability of strong earthquake is very high, but is not thus far critical. Strong shallow earthquakes from M>6.2 (like earthquakes Pizzo, 1905 and Messina, 1908) are not expected. В. Deep focus 250 km<H<350 km After L'Aquila earthquake on April 6, 2009 in central Italy situation was here somewhat discharged. Soon deep-focus earthquakes from M>6.2 here are not expected. Trajectory through the previous it is located in the zone of the instability of the deep-focus earthquakes H=250-350 km in SE area of the Tyrrhenian sea, but there is an essential scarcity of energy indicator-earthquakes. Let us note that the intensity from the source of deep strong earthquakes on the surface can be III -IV ball, that completely not dangerously and it cannot cause destruction and victims. The danger in tsunami from such earthquakes is also negligible (to 10 cm).	P_K=73% P_W=96% Р=70% P_K=70% P_W=83% Р=58%