EPC "GeoQuake"

Seismic System (SS) - the volume of lithosphere, in which occurs the preparation of strong earthquakes. Each SS has contours on the earth's surface, depth and threshold magnitude* Мо.

Strong earthquake - all earthquakes in SS with the magnitudes М≥Mo.

Indicator-earthquake - all earthquakes in SS with magnitudes Мmin≤М<Мo. Where Мmin - the minimal significant threshold of representative earthquakes.

Element of seismic system - a volume inside SS, where strong earthquake occur.

Homogenius seismotectonic zone (HSZ) - volume in SS, which includes is more than one element with the similar focal mechanism of strong earthquakes.

Seismic cycle (Тс) - is time interval between two successive strong earthquakes in the SS.

Cumulative energy (Ес) - summary energy of idicator-earthquakes in SS, which was allocated for a certain time interval (in Joules).

Energy class (K) - common logarithm from the energy of earthquakes.

Cumulative energy class (Kс) - common logarithm from the cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes.

Density state of seismic system (S) - the integral of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes in SS (dimension of ENERGY*TIME).

Entropy (W) - common logarithm from the density of state SS.

The law of the seismic entropy production (or the quantitative description of seismic processes) - laws between the parameters of strong earthquakes and the cumulative parameters of indicator-earthquakes in SS.

Energy diagram - dependence of the allocated seismic energy of strong earthquakes in SS on the entropy. The dynamic properties of basic seismoactive faults inside SS, which generate strong earthquakes, are displayed on the energy diagram. Monitoring entropy allows it according to the energy diagram to forecast the magnitude of the expected earthquake on one or other fault.

Track diagram - dependence of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes in SS on the entropy.

Attractor - limited space on track diagram, where the system loses stability by means of the strong earthquakes .

The preparation of each strong earthquake on the track diagram is depicted by the stepped finite trajectory, which in the course of time tightens into the attractor. Attractor inside has the fine structure, which reflects seismotectonic special features SS. On the basis of track diagram it is possible to cleary see the process of the preparation of strong earthquake, to predict the scenarios of the development of seismicity and to make a forecast of earthquake on the place and the time.

*Where it will be specially not stipulated on our site, by magnitude Мs is understood magnitude on the surface waves.

SEISMIC SYSTEMS

Each SS it is characterized:

with the time of description T,
by configuration on the earth's surface L,
with depth H,
by the threshold magnitude Mo,
by the constants of the law of seismic entropy production ai, bi.

SS on the reliability of forecasts we will subdivide into four levels:

I level (reliable) - the number of completed seismic cycles ≥ 15;

II level (good) - the number of completed seismic cycles ≥ 10;

III level (mediocre) - the number of completed seismic cycles ≥ 5;

IV level (bad) - the number of completed seismic cycles from 2 to 5.

The quality of forecast is improved after each strong earthquake in SS and in the course of time, in proportion to the accumulation of information, all SS will pass to the first reliability level.

Hierarchy of the seismic systems

For reduction in the threshold magnitude seismic systems are divided into the subsystems, those in turn are divided on under subsystems and so forth one and also earthquake in seismic system can be indicator-earthquake, and in the subsystem - strong and be forecast. The hierarchy of the revealed subsystems it made it possible to lower the threshold magnitude of the forecasted earthquakes in some systems to 5.5.

SS possess the properties of the self-similarity

This means that the unstable regions on the track diagram for the strong earthquakes with the close mechanisms and the magnitudes, but located in the different regions of world, are localized closely each other. This property SS make it possible to check earthquakes in the new zones of the origin of seismicity and in those places where the historical catalogs of earthquakes be absent.

PROBABILITY

On the pages of site together with monitoring of entropy, are led the dynamic values of the probability of the expectation of strong earthquake in SS. For current time are calculated three values of the probability:

PK - probability on the cumulative energy of the indicator-earthquakes;

PW - probability on the entropy of the indicator-earthquakes;

P=PK*PW - the probability of the strong earthquake (this probability is equal to zero out of the attractor and starts grow, when trajectory enters into attractor).

It is necessary to remember, that the forecast is done on the basis of energy and track diagrams, and probabilities are the additional parameters; they characterize as a whole state SS and they are calculated by the formulas (see article htm).