13.12.2008. To the anniversary of two decades of earthquake in Armenia (SPITAK, December 7, 1988), we decided on the open page to publish Bulletin 001 on EARTHQUAKES PREDICTION for the regions of the world, which we today control.
Akopian S.Ts., Popov Å.À.
Japan. In the last 55 years (since 1953) in Tokyo area there was dangerously only 2 months (July-August 2008), and remaining time (99.70%) strong earthquake from M>7.8 were excluded on the basis of the method of seismic entropy.
Welcome to the mane page!
Everybody has the right to obtain information about the prepared earthquakes in one or other region of the world, to know about dangerous time intervals for the independent choice of the place of residence, stay and leisure. Such possibility today is available!
EPC «GeoQuake» was organized in March 2007 with the purpose of creation of global system of monitoring and prediction of strong earthquakes of the world on the basis of seismic entropy. If we go by the traditional path of scientific development, the solution of the problem of earthquake forecast on a global scale the Earth it will be required from 50 to 100 years, and the method of seismic entropy allows to make it already today. The author of a method doctor phys.-math. sciences, the academican Int.Ac.of Geoecology, Akopian S.Ts. More in detail.
JAPAN News of "GeoQuake" on Japan
Situation in the SS of Japan after earthquake 2009.08.10 20:07:08 34.74N 138.22E H=26 km М=6.6 near the south coast of Honshu (Japan). Nature has chosen a cautious and expectant option to continue playing in the seismic chess ... /Aug.11, 2009/. After the earthquake 2009.08.12 32.82N 140.38E H=51 êì Ìs=6.6 was update /Aug.13, 2009/.
Situation in the SS South Kuril-Hokkaido after the earthquake 2009.06.05 03:30:35 41.86N 143.40E H=41km М=6.4 off the south-east of Hokkaido. Seismic situation is developed on the previously forecast scenario. /June 06, 2009/
Situation in the SS South Kuril-Hokkaido after the earthquake 2009.04.07 04:23:34 46.09N 151.50E H=34km М=6.9 off the east of Kuril Islands. Seismic situation is developed on the previously forecast scenario. /Update April 19, 2009/ /April 07, 2009/
Situation in the SS of Japan after earthquake 2008.12.20 10:29:22 36.60N 142.36E H=10 km Ì=6.5 off the east coast of Honshu (Japan). After three-month silence Nature selected the active version of the continuation of game into seismic chess ... /Dec. 21, 2008/
Seismic situation and forecast in SS South Kuril-Hokkaido after earthquake 2008.09.11 00:20:52 41.98N 143.63E H=35km М=6.9 off the east coast of Hokkaido (Japan). /13 Sep 2008/
Rescuing by Tokyo. Analysis results of the forecast of strong earthquake in Tokyo area. Game into seismic chess continues. Danger is moved to the off the east coast of Honshu (Japan). /05 Sep 2008/
Seismic danger in Tokyo area is reduced after refinement of the magnitude earthquake of 2008.07.19, Мs=7.0 (see communication from 20.07.08) off the east coast of Honshu (Japan). /31 July 2008/
Seismic situation in Tokyo area after earthquake 2008.07.23 15:26:23 39.80N 141.43E H=112 km М=6.8 on the eastern of Honshu (Japan) did not change, since the hypocenter of this earthquake in the depth exceeds the scope of the Seismic System Japan (H<80km, see communication from 21.02.08) /23 July 2008/
Seismic situation in Tokyo area after earthquake 2008.07.19 02:39:30 37.62N 142.13E H=27 km Мs=6.8 off the east coast of Honshu (Japan) /20 July 2008/
Seismic danger in Tokyo area grows. Monitoring the dynamic parameters of strong earthquake in the seismic system Japan in July-August 2008. /10 July 2008/
Seismic situation in Tokyo area after earthquake from 2008.06.13 23:43:46 39.10N 140.67E H=10 km Ìs=6.9 on the north of Honshu (Japan) /15 June 2008/
Information about the seismic situation in Tokyo area. Turning to the sitizens of the different countries... /05 June 2008/
Urgent news! The forecast of the earthquake in Tokyo. /Monitoring in the real time/. Seismic situation after earthquake from Ì=6.7 at 07 May 2008 near east coast of Honshu, Japan, changed. /08 May 2008/
On the forecast of the earthquake in Tokyo /Copy of letter to the Coordinating Committee of Japan for Earthquake Prediction/, /21 Feb. 2008/
PAID pages are temporarily inaccessible in the connection by the reorganization of the system of payment.
31.01.2010:
After
catastrophic earthquake in Haiti, which led to the huge number of human victims
and destruction, we carried out the special analysis of this earthquake,
revealed SS of Haiti (Ms≥7.0)
and on the basis of the method of seismic entropy made its retrospective
forecast.
We attempted based on the
example Haiti, to accessibly present the advantages of method, to show
deficiencies in the traditional methods of evaluating the seismic
hazard and as to in practice already today help such
countries as Haiti to decrease seismic risk. For the first time in the world
practice we produced the visualization of the real process preparation
catastrophic earthquake
(haiti_move02).
POPULAR From pages GeoQ.ru
ITALY News of "GeoQuake" on Italy
On the possibility of forecast the earthquake L'Aquila 2009.04.06, Ms=6.2 in the SS Italy and about a change of the seismic situation in Italy after this earthquake. /April 18, 2009/
Communication about earthquake 2009.04.06 01:32:43 42.40N 13.32E H=10 km, Ms=6.2 (L'Aquila) in SS Central Italy. Why this earthquake was not forecast in this seismic system (see Bulletin 001)? On the areas of application of the method of seismic entropy and why we add L'Aquila earthquake to the class of special and difficultly forecast. How many such earthquakes and what earthquakes in revealed SS we add to the class of those of difficultly forecast... Being expressed in the language of seismic chess: some seismic parties, played by Nature in central Italy (1997, 2009), Southern California (1906) and in Kuril (2007) are unique and require thin analysis, for their forecast in the future. /April 08, 2009/
The uzer of this site must know:
accuracy of forecast of earthquakes on the time 1 month and more, depending on concrete situation;
accuracy of forecast on the magnitude ± 0.1; large deviations are specified separately;
accuracy of forecast of earthquake place on a surface of the Earth and depth of sources is limited by the sizes of the seismic system (by contour on the surface and by depth), and inside the seismic system it can reach the size of the rupture of predicted earthquake in the dependence on its magnitude;
if within of seismic system the zone of expectation of strong earthquake is underlined automatically in other places of seismic system strong earthquake is excluded, i.e. all volume of seismic system supervised;
depending on the development of a seismic situation (from the future earthquakes-indicators), the results of the forecasts in the course of time can change and be specified. Instability (forecasted place of earthquake) can migrate within the seismic system from one fault zone to another, the predicted waiting time of earthquake can be moved away or approach and accordingly the magnitude of the expected earthquake can change (all this placed in a method);
the elements of seismic system in the limited time interval (from 1 to 6 months) can find in the unsteady state and if strong earthquake does not occur in this time, then on the expiration of this term system again converts to steady state;
depending on the level of region study and data about the earthquakes, seismic systems they are subdivided into four levels - reliable, well determined, mediocre and badly determined, accordingly and is subdivided the quality of forecast in them.
CALIFORNIA News of "GeoQuake" on California (USA)
Seismic situation in California and forecasts have changed because of static growth of entropy. Now the danger of a moderate earthquake with M=6.0 migrates in area of Parkfield. By analogy with the earthquake Fort Tejon, 1857, it could trigger a catastrophic earthquake with M7.8 in 2011... /Oct. 4, 2009/
CRITICISM of the Approach of American seismologists to the problem of forecast earthquakes and the Generalizing prognostic map of California for the earthquakes Ms≥5.8 on 2009-2016 yrs. The obtained results do not contradict, but by an order improve the results, obtained by American seismologists. /May 12, 2009/
On the seismic situation in Southern California, Ms≥5.8. From 2014 through 2016 on the segment of San Andreas fault can be prepared catastrophic earthquake from M=7.7-7.9. The earthquakes of the moderate magnitude until 2014 can occur. /May 11, 2009/
On the seismic situation in SS Central California, Ms≥5.8. From May to July 2009 situation is dangerous on the segment of Calaveras fault. /May 10, 2009/
Turkey. We modelled the source of expected earthquake in eastern Turkey and the formation of weak tsunami in the Black sea. Waves to 50 cm can be observed in Yalta, Sevastopol, Feodosiya, Novorossiysk and Tuapse
(see NAF move01).
California (USA). Catastrophic earthquake from M=7.7-7.9 in Southern California is expected with 2014 until 2016 on the segment of San Andreas fault in South California (from Palmdale through San Bernardino to Riverside). In the area of influence of the forecasted earthquake falls Los Angeles.
China NE. After more than 32 years, on the basis of the method of seismic entropy it was possible to prove that the Haicheng earthquake (February 04, 1975, M=7.3) was trigger and forerunner of the Tangshan earthquake (July 28, 1976, M=7.8).
For the illustration of the result of
the forecasts on the map the World
Atlas of Micrasoft is used.
FOR THE USERS
Connection of the magnitude of earthquake with the intensity in the balls near the epicentral zone of the earthquake
China. By trigger, and the forerunner of the Sichuan earthquake on May 12, 2008, M=7.9 was earthquake on March 20, 2008 M=7.3 in the West of China, located on the distance of 2300 km from the future source!
|
Magnitude M |
Intensity I (ball) |
|
1.0 - 4.9 |
I - V |
|
5.0 - 5.9 |
VI - VII |
|
6.0 - 6.9 |
VII - IX |
|
7.0 and higher |
VIII or higher |
AREAS OF APPLICATION OF THE METHOD
SEISMIC ENTROPY
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