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MATERIALS ON TESTING OF THE PROPOSED METHOD FORECAST OF EARTHQUAKES.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copies of some documents according to the Forecast of Earthquakes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Letter about the forecasts Akopian S.Ts. of earthquake in Iran, 1997.

 

Letter about the forecasts Akopian S.Ts. of earthquake on the southwest of Java, Indonezia, 2006.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Рейтинг@Mail.ru

 

 

Protocol of Russian-Iranian conference about the forecast Akopian S.Ts. of seismic situation in Iran, 2006.

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Program of a visit Akopian S.Ts. in Iran, 2006.

 

 

 

 

The earthquakes, which were forecast (documentary) in real time:

1. The Spitak earthquake (Armenia, 07.12.1988, Ìs=7.0), forecast it is given in the work:

Akopian S.Ts., Plate tectonics of Alpine-Himalayan belt and some prognostic criteria. IZV. AN Arm.SSR, the Earth Sciences, v.38, n.6, 1985, pp.39-49 (in Rus.).

2. Erzinjan earthquake (Eastern Turkey, 13.03. 1992, Ìs=6.8), :

Akopian S.Ts. The long term forecast of earthquakes on the platform of ANPP: In the report NSSP "Expert estimation of seismicity on the platform of Armenian nucler power plant"; Chapter 7, The government of the RA, Yerevan, February, 1992.

3. On the activity of John Filson (Unated State Department of the Interior), the method and the algorithm of the forecast of earthquakes on the basis of seismic entropy for California in February-May 1995 were  tested by the seismologists of the Geological Survey of the USA at the  Southern California Earthquake Centre, by headed famous prof. K.Aki.  

Opinion of K.Aki and communication from the newspaper "Republic of Armenia".

4. Earthquake in the east of Kamchatka (05.12.1997, Ms=8.0) forecast is given:

Intermediate Report of the project INTAS 94-0232, 1996, (Italy, France, Russia, Armenia), "Short-term Dynamics of Seismicity: New Theoretical Base and Implications to Seismic Risk Reduction", Coordinator Prof. L.Bertocchi, ICTP, Trieste, Italy.

S.Ts. Akopian. Development of the computer technology of monitoring and forecast of strong earthquakes. Abstract at the conference of the "Problems of creation and development of information- telecommunication systems", 23-25 April, Federal Agency for Government Communications and Information at the President RF, SIC "KONTUR", 1996.

5. Method was tested in the Centre of regional geological-geophysical studies "GEON", Moscow, in 1997.

Akopyan S.Ts. Report "The isolation of zones and sections of the expected strong earthquakes (Ms6.2) and the estimation of the time of their exposure in the limits of Caspian Basin ". Moscow, The funds for centre  RGGI "GEON", 80 p., 1997.

In the report were given the forecasts of earthquakes from Ìs≥6.2 to 1998-2005 years for area of the Caspian Basin and adjacent countries. The stated below earthquakes were there forecast:

     Earthquake on North-West of Iran (1998.07.09, Ms=6.2).

Letter after signatures of doc. Solodilov L.N., Fedorov D.L., Kondorskaya N.V.

      Earthquake in western Turkmenia (2000.12.06, Ìs=7.5).

      Zones and the time intervals, where strong earthquakes were excluded, completely were confirmed.

5. Successful test of method was the forecast of earthquake San-Simeon in central California (22.12.2003, Ìs=6.4), which was expected with the high accuracy and the reliability precisely in this place.

Forecast was registered in 2002 (Moscow, Ministry for natural resources, "Geointer", Prof. Y.A. Popov).

6. Frome 1996 through 2005 yr occurred 20 strong earthquakes in the seismic systems of California, Italy, Caucasus, the Caspian Region, Iran, Sakhalin, Kurile-Kamchatka region and in Japan, which are forecast (without the passage) on the basis of a new method. The parameters of seismic systems were published in the work:

Akopian S.Ts. The quantitative description of seismic processes on the basis of seismic entropy. Physics of the Earth, 1, 1998. Pp. 11-26.  The enumeration of 17 earthquakes and the accuracy of their forecast is given below in Table 1

7.  In 2005 the method was tested for the Parkfield segment of San Andreas fault based on the example of the Parkfield earthquake of 28 September, 2004. is given the interpretation of data of complex observations of the seismopredictional parameters for the years 1985-2004.

Method makes it possible to very reliably separate temporary sections and zones of the absence of strong earthquakes inside the seismic systems. This made it possible to estimate, to refine or to refute the forecasts, given by other scientists on the basis of other methods.

 

8. Akopian S.Ts. in the summer of 2004 (on 26 June 20:20 and on 02 July 09:20) coming out on the radio of "Echo of Moscow" it refuted the forecast of strong earthquake, given for the south of California by academician Kei1lis- Borok (MITP RAN [RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE]), which had to occur until 5 September, 2004. This forecast for a period of 8 months it figured on the site of the Geological Survey of the USA it caused large commotion in South California.

Internet page and the audio-cassette of appearance on "Echo of Moscow".

9. Akopian S.Ts.  during October 2005 refuted the forecast of strong earthquake in the south of Kamchatka, given from MITP RAN [RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE], doct. P. Shebalin, which had to occur prior to the end of 2005. This forecast was officially taken into consideration OF MChS [EMERGENCY AND DISASTER RELIEF MINISTRY] RF and in Kamchatka has already been conducted the studies.

During October 2005 gave the forecast of seismic making more active and strong earthquakes with magnitude Ms≥6.8 in central Kuril in course 1 of year. Forecast was confirmed, on 30 September even on 1 October, 2006, in central Kuril occurred two strong earthquakes with magnitudes Ms=6.8 and Ms=6.6, and on 15 November 2006 and on 13 January 2007 two strong earthquakes with Ms>8.0.

Akopian S.Ts.  Report the "Refinement of possible zones and intermediate-term forecast of the time of the strong earthquakes of Kuril-Kamchatka region on basis of seismic entropy", 47 p., Moscow, "Aerokosmos", October, 2005.

10. Akopian S.Ts. during January 2006 predicted the strong earthquake on the Is. Java (Indonesia), which occurred in the central section of the Is. Java on 26 May, 2006, of M=6.2 (Yogiakarta) and led to the thousand victims and the large destruction.

Akopian S.Ts. the "Preliminary estimation of seismic situation on the objects, insured on the Is. Java (Indonesia)", for the Moscow-re insurance society "Moscow Re", December of 2005.

11. Akopian S.Ts. during June 2006 it predicted strong earthquake on the western and southwestern part of the Is. Java (Indonesia), which occurred on 17 July M=7.2 even on 19 July M=6.0 of 2006 and caused tsunami. As a result, as it was predicted, suffered provinces on the southwest of Is. Java.

Letter to the President of Moscow reinsurance society Mr. G.N.Fidel'man ¹235 from 02.06.2006 from the general director "Data+" of A.I.Ushakov.

12. Akopian S.Ts. during April 2006 in the report the "Forecast of strong earthquakes in the territory of Iran on the basis of seismic entropy" estimated seismic situation for the entire territory of Iran, and, in particular, predicted seismic making more active in central Iran, in the province of Kerman, which subsequently was confirmed. In the flow of May, June and July 2006 there occurred 14 weak earthquakes with the magnitudes of M=4.0-4.7.

     Protocol of Russia-Iranian conference into VNIIGeofisica of 17 April, 2006, and application.

Iranian side appeared great interest in the work and for further collaboration invited S.Ts.Akopian from  4 through 8 August, 2006  in Iran.