Mega Seismic System Chile

MSS CHILE

IV level (badly).
Length of 3000 km.
Depth 100 km.
Threshold magnitude 8.5.
Monitoring since 2010.
Predicted quakes 0.

Large cities: Santiago, Arica, Iquique, Calama, Antofagasta, Valparaiso, Chillan, Valdivia, Puerto Montt.

Seismicity is caused by interaction of the plate Nazca with the South American plate. The plate of Nazca moves to the east downward beneath the South American plate, forming the zone of deep-focus seismicity and volcanism.

In this system occurred strongest since the beginning of the XX century mega earthquake on May 22, 1960, M=9.5, extended nearly 1000 km parallel to the coast (more than 2000 people killed). Last the devastating earthquake of Concepcion-Valparaiso on February 27, 2010, M=8.8, extended nearly 500 km (at least 507 people killed).

FORECAST, Ms≥8.5. (Mega Seismic System of Chile, Fig.1). MSS of Chile is largest seismic system of world, revealed by us; it has an extent of more than 3000 km. Attractor for this mega-system it has the highest values of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators and entropy. In this system, in the south of central Chile, on May 22, 1960 occurred the strongest of known earthquakes in the world, M=9.5.

Chilean earthquake (19:11:20) on May 22 1960, M=9.5, had 4 strong foreshocks from M>7.0, strongest of which occurred on May 21 in the 10:02:50, M=7.9 in Concepcion. Many aftershocks occurred continued 4 months, with 5 of magnitude 7.0 or greater. Extensive destruction was in Concepcion, Valdivia and Puerto Montt area, many small cities and villages were practically destroyed. Were observed massive landslides, violent volcanic eruptions and extensive deformations of the earth's surface. The formed waves of tsunami caused destruction and victim along the coastline of Chile, into Hawaii, Japan and along the coasts in the entire zone of Pacific Ocean.

Retrospective. In the MSS of Chile we made a retrospective forecast Concepcion-Valparaiso earthquake ☼, which had a plane of slip 600x100 km. The trajectory of the preparation of this catastrophic earthquake, which started after the Chilean earthquake of 1960, 49 years it was located in the steady zone out of the attractor and only to the middle of 2009 it approached the attractor:

К=1.14W - 5.20 for W>19.80 (1)

There was already by July 2009 prepared and it was expected strong earthquake from M=8.8, which occurred after 7 months. By February 2010 trajectory had values Wc=20.21, Kc=17.70. Earthquake occurred somewhat lower than zone of instability (1); therefore had strong aftershocks activity. The distinctive feature tracks training earthquake in MSS of Chile is that they accumulate a very high values of cumulative energy earthquakes-indicators before closer to attractor and approaching a zone of instability on the left. The track of Chilean earthquake on May 22, 1960 had improbably high values of cumulative energy and entropy (see the Table). I.e. tracks almost 98-99% of time were in steady state. The average period frequency is 44 years. Until February 27 the probability of earthquake from Ms≥8.5 in the system was high P=79.24% (Pw=82.90%, Pk=95.60%) (see Fig.2). The table of the strongest earthquakes of world on the entropy is given below, three are located in the MSS of Chile.

STRONGEST EARTHQUAKES OF WORLD ON THE ENTROPY

1. 1960.05.22 K=17.95 W=20.35 М=9.5 Chile

2. 2010.02.27 K=17.70 W=20.20 М=8.8 Chile

3. 2008.05.12 K=17.40 W=19.94 М=8.0 China

4. 1868.08.13 К=17.34 W=19.83 М=8.5 Chile

5. 2004.12.26 К=17.00 W=19.50 М=9.1 Sumatra

6. 1952.11.04 K=16.80 W=19.05 М=9.0 Kamchatka

To the preparation of these earthquakes earth lithosphere spent the greatest effort.

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