PARKFIELD. Seismic situation in the region of Parkfield (Central California) is close to critical. As we predicted in a communication dated October 4, 2009, because of static growth of entropy from March 15 to April 15, 2011 track will be in area of instability for the region of Parkfield, where it can happen moderate earthquake with M=6.2.                                                             /February 20, 2011/

Danger in area of Parkfield is prolonged till the end of May 2011.                         /Update June 15, 2011/

                      

MONITORING AND FORECAST

CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

Мs≥5.8

 

 

 

 

Situation in system. From October 2009 to the present trajectory has continued to evolve through the static growth of entropy. Track preparation of strong earthquakes with Ms≥5.8 is getting closer to the instability region the corresponding segment of the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield (zone Р, Fig.1, 2). From March 15 to May 31, 2011 in the region of Parkfield, in zone Р, may be prepared by a strong earthquake with Мs=6.2. The probability of a strong earthquake in the system now is equal to РK=44%, PW=64%, P=28% (see Tab.1 and Fig.3). Since October 2009, the likelihood has increased by 2% (on the entropy to 5%). From Tab.1 and Fig.2 shows that the deviation of instability parameters is very small (~0.03%), therefore, we conclude that the earthquake is likely to happen. Detailed analysis shows that the epicenter will be located on the San Andreas Fault, 10-15 km north of Parkfield, and the faulting will be distributed from NW to SE. The earthquake may be accompanied by foreshocks M~4.9 for the tens of minutes before the main shock. Possible effects are described in a communication dated October 4, 2009.

 

SS Central CALIFORNIA

Large cities: San Francisco, Santa Rosa, Sacramento, Salinas. Last devastating earthquake San Simeon on Dec.22, 2003, M6.5, 2 pers. died; Parkfield, Sep.28, 2004.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1. Increase in the dynamic parameters of the preparation of strong earthquake (Мs≥5.8) in Central California on June, 2011.

 

 

 

 

 

Fig.2. Fragment tracking diagram of SS Central California. The trajectory of the preparation of moderate earthquakes (thick red line) M≥5.8 from March 15 to May 15, 2011 has passed  a zone of instability P for Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault, but danger here to remain till the end of 2011.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fig.1. Central California. Controlled area and predictive map of earthquakes with M≥5.8. From March 15 to April 15 is dangerous in the area of  Р (Parkfield), expected earthquake with М=6.2. Potentially dangerous zones С1, С2, С3.

 

 

Fig.3. Dynamics of an increase the probability of strong earthquake with М≥5.8 in Central California on Feb., 2011.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

СС КАЛИФОРНИЯ

Крупные города: Сан Франциско, Лос Анджелес. Разлом Сан-Андреас - самое крупное разрывное нарушение земной коры в штате Калифорния, протягивается от мыса Мендосино на Севере до вершины Калифорнийского залива на Юге.

 

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DATA

PREPARATION

ENERGY

PROBABILITY

PLACE

 

CUMULAT. ENERGY. CLASS

ENTROPY

MAGNITUDE

BY ENERGY

BY ENTROPY

IN ATTRACTOR

Name,

faults

 

Y.M.D.

K

W

Ms

 Pк

 Pw

P

FORECAST

Critical

Values
 

14.193

16.055

6.0

      

Parkfield, zone Р
 

Preparation

of the strong earthquake

 

 

2008.01.30

2009.04.30

 

2009.09.30

2011.02.28

2011.03.31

2011.04.31

2011.06.31

14.197

14.197

 

14.197

14.197

14.197

14.197

14.197

15.723

15.884

 

15.934

16.046

16.052

16.058

16.070

 

 

44.40%

44.40%

 

44.40%

44.40%

44.40%

44.40%

44.40%

48.78%

56.78%

 

59.07%

64.02%

64.29%

64.55%

64.80%

21.66%

25.21%

 

26.23%

28.43%

28.54%

28.66%

28.77%

No danger

2009.05-07 was danger in Zone C

No danger

No danger

Danger, Zone Р Danger, Zone Р

Danger, Zone Р

FORECAST 

 

2011.03.15-2011.06.31

    

6.2

      

Dangerous Parkfield, Zone Р

 

 

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