Seismic situation in California and forecasts of May 10 and May 12 have changed because of static growth of entropy (for 5 months of sensitive indicator-earthquakes did not happen). Now the danger of a moderate earthquake with M=6.0 migrates from the Calaveras fault zone to the south, in area of Parkfield. By analogy with the earthquake Fort Tejon, 1857, it could trigger a catastrophic earthquake with M7.8 in 2011.
/October 4, 2009/
Situation in system. Currently /4 October 2009/ track preparation of a strong earthquake with Мs≥5.8 is in the attractor. In recent months, the trajectory has continued to evolve through the static growth of entropy. Trajectory of the top bypassed the region of instability corresponding to the southern segment of the Calaveras fault (zone С, Fig.1) and in August the system once again turned into a stable state (see communication from May 10). If the system will continue only increase the entropy of a static and will not happen seismic activity, in March 2011, the trajectory approaches the zone of instability on a segment of San Andreas Fault near Parkfield (zone P, Fig. 1). From March to May 2011 in the area Parkfield in the zone of P, can be prepared by a strong earthquake with M=6.0. The probability of strong earthquake in the system now is РK=44%, PW= 59%, P=26% (see Tab.1 and Fig.2). Over the past 5 months has increased the probability of 1%.
Due to the fact that trajectory went the zone of instability С and earthquake it did not occur, the situation in the northern part of the SS Central California has changed. Now the potentially dangerous zone С1 (M5.8), С2 (M5.8) and still С3 (M6.6) (Fig.1). As the development trajectory of the subsystem, in the future it could fall into one of these zones of instability depending on the activation of indicator-earthquakes with M5.2-5.6. At the San Andreas Fault, within the controlled area in Central California excluded disastrous earthquake (like the San Francisco earthquake of 1906), at least until 2014. In accordance with this prediction in a communication dated May 12 change predictive map for zone A on Fig.1b.
Fig.3. Controlled area and predictive map of earthquakes with M≥7.5 for California (area A+B). In the first half of 2011 in Zone B, the section of the San Andreas Fault from Parkfield to Wrightwood may be prepared by a catastrophic earthquake with M7.8.
Fig.1. Central California. Controlled area and predictive map of earthquakes with M≥5.8. The risk of moderate earthquake with M6.0 migrate from the zone C to the zone P (Parkfield). Potentially dangerous zones С1, С2, С3.
Table 2. Increase in the dynamic parameters of the preparation of strong earthquake (Мs≥7.5) in California (zone А+В).
Table 1. Increase in the dynamic parameters of the preparation of strong earthquake (Мs≥5.8) in Central California on October 1, 2009.
Fig.2. Dynamics of an increase the probability of strong earthquake with М≥5.8 in Central California on October, 2009.
СС КАЛИФОРНИЯ
IV уровня (не надежный).
Протяженность 1300 км.
Глубина 25 км.
Пороговая магнитуда 7.5.
Мониторинг с 1995 года.
Предсказано землетрясений 0.
Крупные города: Сан Франциско, Лос Анджелес. Разлом Сан-Андреас - самое крупное разрывное нарушение земной коры в штате Калифорния, протягивается от мыса Мендосино на Севере до вершины Калифорнийского залива на Юге.
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TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIO PREPARATION OF CATASTROPHIC EARTHQUAKE IN CALIFORNIA.
In a communication dated May 12 was given a forecast of a catastrophic earthquake on the southern segment of the San Andreas Fault. In connection with the above described changes in the seismic situation in Central California, provided a second possible scenario and prepare a catastrophic earthquake. By analogy with the earthquake Fort Tejon, 1857, predicted an earthquake in Parkfield in 2011 could trigger a catastrophic earthquake with M7.8.
СС КАЛИФОРНИЯ
IV уровня (не надежный).
Протяженность 1300 км.
Глубина 25 км.
Пороговая магнитуда 7.5.
Мониторинг с 1995 года.
Предсказано землетрясений 0.
Крупные города: Сан Франциско, Лос Анджелес. Разлом Сан-Андреас - самое крупное разрывное нарушение земной коры в штате Калифорния, протягивается от мыса Мендосино на Севере до вершины Калифорнийского залива на Юге.
SS Central CALIFORNIA
I level (reliable).
Length of 600 km.
Depth 25 km.
Threshold magnitude 5.8.
Monitoring since 1995.
Predicted quakes 2.
Large cities: San Francisco, Santa Rosa, Sacramento, Salinas.
Last devastating earthquake San Simeon on Dec.22, 2003, M6.5, 2 pers. died; Parkfield, 28 September 2004.
SS CALIFORNIA
IV leve (badly determined).
Length of 1300 km.
Depth 25 km.
Threshold magnitude 7.5.
Monitoring since 1995.
Predicted quakes 0.
Large cities: San Francisco, Los Angeles.
Situation in system. Currently /4 October 2009/ track preparation of a strong earthquake with Мs≥7.5 in the SS California (zone A+B in Fig.3) is in the attractor. Trajectory formally reach the point of instability earthquake Fort Tejon to 2017, i.e. later than the first scenario the preparation of the catastrophic earthquake on the southern segment of the San Andreas Fault, considered a communication dated May 12. The probability of strong earthquake in the zone B is high and is equal to РK=78%, PW=69%, P=54% (see Tab.2 and Fig.4). Over the past 5 months has increased the probability of 1%. Given that already accumulated a huge cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes (K=16.294) and its deficiency in relation to earthquake Fort Tejon (Ks=16.299), the order of the earthquake with M6.0 (see Tab.2), it is quite possible that preparation of a moderate earthquake with M6.0 in the SS Central California in area of Parkfield could trigger a catastrophic earthquake with M7.8 in the San Andreas Fault in Zone B in 2011 (Fig.3).
Fig.4. Dynamics of an increase the probability of strong earthquake with М≥7.5 in California (zone А+В) on October, 2009.
1857 01 09 16:24, М=7.9
This earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault, which ruptured from near Parkfield (in the Cholame Valley) almost to Wrightwood (a distance of about 300 kilometers); horizontal displacement of as much as 9 meters was observed on the Carrizo Plain. Presumably, the earthquake was preceded by a foreshock with M~6.0 in the Parkfield where the break began to extend to the south. It caused 2 fatality.
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>Home
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DATA |
PREPARATION |
ENERGY |
PROBABILITY |
PLACE |
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|
|
CUMULAT. ENERGY. CLASS |
ENTROPY |
MAGNITUDE |
BY ENERGY |
BY ENTROPY |
IN ATTRACTOR |
Name, faults |
|
|
|
Y.M.D. |
K |
W |
Ms |
Pк |
Pw |
P |
FORECAST |
|
Nearest Critical Values |
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| 1857.01.09 |
16.299
|
18.868 |
7.8 |
Fort Tejon |
||||
|
Preparation of the strong earthquake |
2009.09.30 |
16.294
|
18.735 |
|
78.19% |
68.63% |
53.66% |
No danger |
|
FORECAST
|
2011.03-05
|
7.8 |
Dangerous Fort Tejon |
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|
|
DATA |
PREPARATION |
ENERGY |
PROBABILITY |
PLACE |
|||
|
|
CUMULAT. ENERGY. CLASS |
ENTROPY |
MAGNITUDE |
BY ENERGY |
BY ENTROPY |
IN ATTRACTOR |
Name, faults |
|
|
|
Y.M.D. |
K |
W |
Ms |
Pк |
Pw |
P |
FORECAST |
|
Nearest Critical Values |
||||||||
|
14.193 |
16.055 |
6.0 |
Parkfield, zone Р |
|||||
|
Preparation of the strong earthquake |
2008.01.30 2009.04.30
2009.09.30 |
14.197 14.197
14.197 |
15.723 15.884
15.934 |
|
44.40% 44.40%
44.40% |
48.78% 56.78%
59.07% |
21.66% 25.21%
26.23% |
No danger 2009.05-07 was danger in Zone C No danger |
|
FORECAST
|
2011.03-05
|
6.0 |
Dangerous Parkfield, Zone Р |
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