CENTRAL CALIFORNIA Мs≥5.8

Situation in the system.

  At present, /May 10, 2009/ the track of strong earthquake preparation from Мs≥5.8 is located in the attractor. Trajectory on top goes around the zone of instability, situated on the southern segment of Calaveras fault, near the San Andreas fault (see Fig.1). Taking into account the proximity of trajectory to this area of instability and the possible passages of the historical catalog of indicator-earthquakes, this area will be dangerous from May to July 2009. There can occur earthquake from Ms=6.2. In the zone of intensity of this earthquake fall cities Hollister and Gilroy. The probability of this earthquake is now equal to РK=44%, PW= 57%, P=25% (see Tab.1 and Fig.2). If this earthquake does not occur, then since August system will pass into the steady state.

  Since the beginning of 2010 until May the situation will be dangerous in area of Roger-Greek fault and NE from it - at activation indicator-earthquakes M5.2-5.6, there will be prepared earthquake M~6.3-6.6. Will be dangerous the zone between cities Vallejo, Sonoma and in the city district Fairfield-Vacaville-Winters (see Fig.1). On the San Andreas fault within the controlled area in Central California is excluded the earthquakes of the moderate magnitudes Мs≥5.8, and also catastrophic earthquakes  (like the earthquake of San Francisco 1906), at least, until 2012. The earthquakes from Мs≥5.8 thus far are not expected in the southern part of Central California up to Parkfield.

  To the inhabitants of Hollister and Gilroy we recommend to be vigilant from May to July 2009, the expected earthquake will not be accompanied by the preliminary quakes (foreshocks).

In Bulletin 001 the forecasts of earthquakes for Central California (USA) were given. Taking into account that in San Francisco area the earthquakes of the moderate magnitude are expected, we decided in more detail to inform about the seismic situation in this region.

Fig.1. Controlled region and the prognostic map of earthquakes from M≥5.8 for central California. Will be soon dangerous on the Calaveras fault, Rodgers-Greek and Concorde. 

Table 1. Dynamic parameters of the preparation of strong earthquake (Ms≥5.8) in Central California.

Fig.2. Dynamics of an increase in the probability of strong earthquake from M≥ 5.8 in Central California on April 2009.

	DATA	PREPARATION		ENERGY	PROBABILITY			PLACE
		CUMULAT. ENERGY. CLASS	ENTROPY	MAGNITUDE	BY ENERGY	BY ENTROPY	IN ATTRACTOR	Name, faults
	Y.M.D.	K	W	Ms	Pк	Pw	P	FORECAST
Nearest Critical Values
		14.133-14.200	15.868-15.895					Calaveras
Preparation of the strong earthquake	2008.01.30 2009.04.30	14.197 14.197	15.723 15.884		44.40% 44.40%	48.78% 56.78%	21.66% 25.21%	No danger Danger
FORECAST	2009.05-07			6.2				Danger Calaveras Fault Hollister, Gilroy

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