California. Map of Forecast Earthquakes

CRITICISM

APPROACH OF AMERICAN SEISMOLOGIST TO THE PROBLEM OF EARTHQUAKES FORECAST.

Recently American seismologists, published the map of Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF). Actually, this map is no different from the previous maps of Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), which showed their unfitness for the forecast of earthquakes. Were not ferecasted earthquake Loma Prieta 1989, Landers 1992, Northridge 1994, Hector Mine 1999, San Simeon 2003, Parkfield 2004. Probabilistic method for evaluating seismic hazard and earthquake prediction, developed by American seismologists for California, gives a forecast for 30 years. However, it is not clear, as a society, or specific persons must respond to these forecasts. Such predictions are important for long-term planning, and earthquake-resistant construction, capacity building and, ultimately, to reduce seismic risk.

Probability maps are not suitable for practical forecasting of earthquakes, and to take concrete action to save lives, and in some cases, as in the case of an earthquake of Loma Prieta, even waning. The probability of an earthquake in Parkfield in 1989 was estimated higher than in the Loma Prieta, but an earthquake, contrary to expectations, happened in Loma Prieta.

Probabilistic method for earthquake prediction to the uncertainty in 30 years, according to American seismologists, is a consequence of the absence of more reliable methods of prediction. But this argument is invalid. The method of seismic entropy gives by an order better result, it has been tested by American seismologists in 1995 and received positive feedback.

Why work for the prediction of earthquakes in California (United States) are far from the solution of the problem? The studies carried out by a very expensive project. One of them was The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Experiment. American seismologists consider that the experiment failed, because what were planning to obtain from the experiment - next time the forecast earthquake (magnitude and location were known in advance), did not happen. Expected in 1988 within the framework of this project earthquake occurred just after 16 years without significant precursors. The conclusions of American seismologists from this experiment were made incorrect. They to the end were not dismantled with the results of Parkfield experiment, as indicated by another very expensive project SAFOD (San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth). This project can be a very original and interesting from the point of view of the development of the earth science, achievements of drilling technology, but from the point of view of the practical forecast of the earthquakes of financial it is not effective and it is not scientifically substantiated. Our results show that Casket to forecast earthquakes, seismologists are looking for at a depth of 3 km, will be empty.

We consider that Parkfield experiment, that failed (?!) - was very successful, since negative result also result. Experiment showed that the traditional forerunners and recurrent regularities placed in the basis of experiment do not work. It was necessary to find correct concept and interpretation of the obtained results. Still in 1995 was noted a deficiency in the approach of American seismologists (see Akopian S.Ts. Probabilistic Approach for Earthquake Prediction Problem and Seismic System Work Effectiveness. (Doklady) of the Rus.Ac.of Sci., 341, 5, 1995 (htm). But this article was not included in the American transfer of Journal. Why?

The method of seismic entropy, which we are developing for the California, gives by an order the best result, than the probabilistic method, used by American seismologists. As already we noted, Americans tested our method in 1995, but to the end they has not realized its importance. This method explains the results of Parkfield experiment, retrospectively forecasts earthquakes of Loma Prieta 1989, Landers 1992, Northridge 1994, Hector Mine 1999. Earthquakes 2003 San Simeon and Parkfield 2004 were predicted in real time.

The prognostic map of California. The results of studies on the basis of method seismic entropy show that real processes in California occur considerably more dynamic than the conventional ideas and instability inside the seismic systems for 5-8 years can migrate from one fault zone to another. Therefore, to predict in advance for many years forward impossibly, or the results of the forecast over time needs to be adjusted and refined. The scenarios of the development seismicity on the next 8 years and the prognostic maps of California are given on Fig.1a,b. These data are acquired on the basis of study seismic systems and subsystems, revealed in California. They are responsible for the strong earthquakes with the magnitudes M≥5.8 for Central and Southern California. Here is generalizing the results

Fig.1b. Forecast earthquakes with M>7.5

On Fig.1а is given the prognostic map of California for the catastrophic earthquakes M≥7.5 to the next 8 years. Seismic processes in the zones A, B, C with the preparation of strong earthquakes are interconnected. In the zone A (Central California) is today excluded strong earthquake similarly to 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The track of preparation catastrophic earthquake has high values of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes and scarcity of entropy. This means that within the next few years significant seismic activity not to expect and an increase in the entropy will be in essence static. In other words, catastrophic earthquake is energetically prepared, but yet it did not mature on the time. The probability of strong earthquake on the cumulative energy is high, and on the entropy is low. Within the system (in zones B and C) it will be dangerous with 2014 until 2016 on the segment of San Andreas Fault in Southern California (from Palmdale through San Bernardino to Riverside). By that time be prepared by an earthquake from M=7.7-7.9. In the zone of intensity of forecasted earthquake falls Los Angeles.

Fig.1b. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8<M<7.5

On Fig.1b is given prognostic map for earthquakes from 5.8≤M<7.5. In the zone A (Central California) there will be dangerously from May to July 2009 (M=6.2), on the segment of Calaveras Fault, near the branching from the San Andreas Fault. In the hazardous area falls Gilroy. At activation indicator-earthquakes M5.2-5.6, from January to April 2010 will be dangerous on the segments of Rodgers-Greek Fault and Concord-Greenvalley Fault. The earthquake with magnitude 6.3-6.5 can occur on one of them. In Southern California until 2014 the earthquakes from 6.3<M<7.5 are not expected, besides region west of Salton Sea. Here it is potentially dangerous on the segment of Coyote Greek Fault, see Fig.1b. Until 2014 can occur earthquake from M=6.5-6.8. In Southern California (in zone B) east of Los of Angeles prior to the middle of 2012 is expected earthquake from M=5.8-6.0. The earthquake of the same force is expected in the Mohave Desert (zone C) east from the San Andreas Fault. I want to indicate that in the course of time, depending of seismic processes, these data will be corrected. All this is laid in the method

Actually all forecasted earthquakes given on Fig.1b must occur until 2014 and must contribute to the preparation of catastrophic earthquake in Southern California (Fig.1a). The obtained results do not contradict, but by an order improve the results, obtained by American seismologists.