Probability

Forecast earthquakes from Мs≥6.2. After the publication of Bulletin 001 in this system the earthquakes occurred (see Communication from April 8 and April 18, 2009). At present trajectory on the track diagram is located out of the attractor; therefore in Italy, in the territory of the near-boundary countries and on the Adriatic coast of Slovenia, Croatia and Montenegro earthquake with the magnitudes Ms≥6.2 are not expected.

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р= 0%

At present trajectory on the track diagram is located out of the attractor; therefore in central Italy (from Calabria to Perugia) earthquake with the  magnitudes Ms≥5.8 are not expected. Let us recall that in this time can occur the indicator-earthquakes with magnitudes 5.4-5.7, which are also dangerous.    

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р= 0%

Trajectory on the track diagram is located in the attractor; therefore the probability of earthquake with the magnitude Ms≥5.7 on the north of Italy (from Perugia to the Alps) high. In spite of this, situation on the north of Italy, in the Alps, on the southeast of France in western Slovenia is not dangerous. The instability, which corresponds to M6.0 earthquake, is now localized into the region Ancona, Rimini, San Marino. It will be here dangerously until October 2010. Then instability will migrate to the north, to the area of Verona.  At the end 2010 potentially dangerous can be on the northeast of Italy, on the Border with Slovenia and Austria, M5.7.

P_K=63%

P_W=71%

Р=45%

А.   Shallow H<40 km

Situation in the system dangerous, trajectory is located in the attractor, there is a scarcity of energy indicator-earthquakes. In the West of Sicily or Calabria can be prepared the earthquake from M~6.1, H<40 km. Most likely this earthquake will be trigger and on the time it will occur after shallow earthquake from M5.6 in the south of Italy, in Calabria or Sicily. The probability of strong earthquake is very high, the situation becomes critical in the next 2-3 years. Strong shallow earthquakes from M>6.2 (like earthquakes Pizzo, 1905 and Messina, 1908) are not expected.

В.   Deep focus 250 km<H<350 km

After L'Aquila earthquake on April 6, 2009 in central Italy situation was here somewhat discharged. Soon deep-focus earthquakes from M>6.2 here are not expected. Trajectory  through the previous it is located in the zone of the instability of the deep-focus earthquakes H=250-350 km in SE area of the Tyrrhenian sea, but there is an essential scarcity of energy indicator-earthquakes. Let us note that the intensity from the source of deep strong earthquakes on the surface can be III-IV ball, that completely not dangerously and it cannot cause destruction and victims. The danger in tsunami from such earthquakes is also negligible (to 10 cm).

P_K=73%

P_W=96%

Р=71%

P_K=39%

P_W=77%

Р=31% 

Forecast earthquakes from Мs≥6.2. Track of the preparation of strong earthquake with Ms≥ 5.8 in central California (from Parkfield to Santa Rosa) it is located in the attractor. Recent the trajectory has continued to evolve through the static growth of entropy. Trajectory of the top bypassed the region of instability corresponding to the southern segment of the Calaveras fault and in August the system once again turned into a stable state. If the system will continue only increase the entropy of a static and will not happen seismic activity, in March 2011, the trajectory approaches the zone of instability on a segment of San Andreas Fault near Parkfield.  From March to May 2011 in the area of Parkfield can be prepared by a strong earthquake with M=6.0. The probability of strong earthquake in the system now is РK=44%, PW= 60%, P=27%. Over the past 5 months has increased the probability of 1%. In the northern part of the SS Central California on the branches  of San Andreas fault are potentially hazardous zones with M=5.8 and M=6.6 (see Communication from October 4, 2009).

At the San Andreas Fault, within the controlled area in Central California excluded disastrous earthquake (like the San Francisco earthquake of 1906), at least until 2014.

P_K=44%

P_W=60%

Р=27% 

А. Forecast of catastrophic earthquakes with Мs≥7.5 in South California, earthquakes in the likeness of 1857 in Fort Tijon, 1952 Kern Caunty, 1992 Landers, with the large material losses and the victims. There are two scenarios of the development of seismicity.

In the first scenario, the situation may develop by analogy with the preparation of earthquake Fort Tijon. Possible earthquake in Parkfield in the first half of the 2011 could serve as a trigger for catastrophic earthquake in 2011 with M=7.8. The probability of such earthquakes РK=78%, PW=70%, P=55%.

In the second scenario dangerously will on San Andreas Fault southern of first scenario. The track of the preparation of catastrophic earthquake has high values of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes and scarcity of entropy. This means that in the coming years a large seismic activity should not be expected and the growth of entropy will largely static. In other words, catastrophic earthquake is energetically prepared, but time is not yet mature. The probability of a strong earthquake on the cumulative energy is high and on the entropy is low. With 2014 until 2016 will be dangerous on the segment of San Andreas Fault in Southern California (from Palmdale through San Bernardino to Riverside). By that time here will be prepared earthquake M=7.7-7.9. In the zone of influence of the forecasted earthquake falls Los Angeles. 

В. Forecast earthquakes with 6.3≤Мs<7.5. In the greater Los Angeles up to 2014 such earthquakes are not expected. Potentially dangerous could be after 2015 on segment of Coyote Greek Fault and North of the Imperial Fault.   

С. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Мs<6.3 in Southern California. In the area of Los Angeles has deficit of emitted a cumulative energy. Until mid-2012 in the Los Angeles area earthquake occurs with M=5.8-6-0. The probability of such earthquake now on cumulative energy low and entropy high РK=70%, PW=92%, P=64%. Likely earthquake occurs East of Pasadena on the Sierra Madre Trust Fault. In September-October of this year on the southern segment of San Jacinto Fault can be prepared earthquake with M=6.2. The probability of such earthquake now РK=31%, PW=33%, P=10%. Until 2014 earthquake with M=5.8-6.0 is expected also east of  San Andreas Fault in Mojave Desert.

P_K=78%

P_W=70%

Р=55% 

P_K=15%

P_W=2%

Р=0.3%

P_K=70%

P_W=92%

Р=64%

P_K=31%

P_W=33%

Р=10%

А. Forecast of catastrophic earthquakes with Мs≥7.5. In this system known historical devastating earthquake Owens Valley 1872.03.27 M=7.6. In the mechanism of this earthquake had prevailed right lateral slip, the gap of faulting reached 160 km. Since then, has 138 years, in this system earthquakes with M>6.5 did not occur. This system relates to the class of those of badly determined; there is nothing reliable completed seismic cycle. Forecast catastrophic earthquakes little information, however, comparative analysis shows that entropy is earthquake already mature, but there is a shortage of cumulative energy indicator-earthquakes.  

В. Forecast earthquakes with 6.4≤Мs<7.5. Trajectory is located in the attractor. The probability of a strong earthquake РK=16%, PW=53%, P=8%. By 2020, in the Mammoth Lakes can be prepared earthquake with M=6.4-6.5. This earthquake can provoke earthquake with M>7.5 after 2020.

P_K=16%

P_W=53%

Р=8%

А. Forecast of catastrophic earthquakes with Мs≥7.7. The trajectory of the preparation of strong earthquake from Мs≥7.7 is located in the attractor and has very high values. Because of the large uncertainty of data we preserve the dangerous situation, located west southwest of Portugal (150-250 km) on the bottom of Atlantic Ocean within the next few years. To end 2014 southwest of Lisbon at a distance 300 km in the ocean can occur strong earthquake from M=8.0. Then situation somewhat is stabilized and danger will be moved away from Portugal and migrate to the West on 500 km. There to middle 2015 will be possibly already earthquake from M=8.1-8.2. The closing date of the realization of oceanic strong earthquake the end of 2015.  Such earthquakes are dangerous by the fact that from them can form the waves of tsunami from 5 to 10 m. The large uncertainty of forecast it is connected with the fact, system is badly determined and that the tectonic processes proceed here relatively slowly.

В. Forecast earthquakes with 6.4≤Мs<7.5. By August this year, strong earthquake from M=6.4 can be prepared southwest of Portugal (150-250 km) on the bottom of Atlantic Ocean. Earthquakes from 7.0<М<7.7 are not expected. For populating the coastal towns of Portugal and Morocco the forecasted earthquakes are dangerous only from the point of view of the appearance from them of the waves of tsunami.

P_K=86%

P_W=84%

Р=71%

P_K=7%

P_W=12%

Р=1%

Earthquakes with Мs≥6.2 is not expected, the situation is not dangerous. The trajectory is outside the attractor, the probability of an earthquake equal to zero. For people and tourists a favorable situation for at least the next years. All resorts Morocco, Western and SW Spain, Portugal seismically safe from earthquakes with Ms≥6.2, causing major damage and casualties. It will be recalled that the Atlantic Ocean coastal cities of these countries may be subject to tsunamis from the ocean earthquakes (see Predictions AZORES ...).

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

Earthquakes with Мs≥6.2 is not expected, the situation is not dangerous. The trajectory is outside the attractor, the probability of an earthquake equal to zero. Prior to the middle of 2011 on the north of Algeria are expected the indicator-earthquakes from mb=5.0-5.7. For people and tourists a favorable situation for at least the next two years. All resorts SE Spanish island Mallorca, Menorca and Ibiza seismically safe from earthquakes with Ms≥6.2, causing major damage and casualties. Recall that coastal earthquake in northern Algeria could bring (up to 2 meters) waves of the tsunami on the southern shores of resort islands of Mallorca, Menorca and Ibiza! Such waves can cause damage to yachts, boats in the coastal sites of the islands.

P_K=2%

P_W=0.6%

Р=0.01%

Seismic situation in the Armenian upland is critical. It is expected the catastrophic earthquake in eastern Turkey with a magnitude Ms≥7.7 (see Communication dated Feb 6 .2010). From two possible scenarios remained one. Trajectory went around all points of instability in the system and it has the highest values, since 1840. Earthquake is already prepared on the eastern segment of North Anatolian Fault near Erzincan city from Ms=7.8-7.9. By the trigger mechanism, operational forerunner can be earthquake-indicator from M=5.0-5.2 in the future epicenter zone. The closing date of realization the middle is of 2010. In the destructive zone of action in the territory of Turkey fall the cities Erzincan , Refahiye, Susehri and surrounding settlements.  

P_K=95%

P_W=98%

Р=94%

Earthquakes with Ms≥6.2 is not yet expected, since there was a deficit of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes, but the situation is very unstable. The trajectory is the attractor, but below the zone of instability. The probability of an earthquake on entropy is high, and the cumulative energy is small. Prior to the middle of 2011 are expected to activate a moderate earthquake with 5.0<M<5.6. The making more active of such indicator-earthquakes can initiate earthquakes with M=6.3 in southern Georgia. Unstable situation will be near Rustavi (Georgia).   

P_K=3%

P_W=31%

Р=1%

А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.2. Earthquakes with Ms≥6.2 is not expected. Trajectory is located in the attractor. Are potentially dangerous (M6.3) in the coastal to Azerbaijan and Dagestan regions in Caspian Sea. The probability of earthquake here with a depth of source 40 km sufficiently high, but is located the scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. If does not occur the essential making more active of earthquake- indicators the earthquake will be here prepared toward the end 2016.

В. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Мs<6.2. Trajectory is located in the attractor. Through the year, by March 2011 is expected the earthquake from Ms=6.1 with a depth of 35 km in the Caspian region of coastal to Azerbaijan (north of Apsheron peninsula). In any case such earthquakes will not present danger to the population

P_K=37%

P_W=40%

Р=15%

P_K=85%

P_W=84%

Р=71%

Earthquakes with Мs≥6.2 is not expected. The probability of earthquake on entropy is high, and on cumulative energy is zero. Are expected earthquakes from M=5.0-5.3 the not represented dangers. It is seismically quiet on the Apsheron peninsula (Azerbaijan). To the inhabitants of Baku and other populated areas of Apsheron peninsula strong earthquake from Мs≥6.2 does not threaten.

P_K=0%

P_W=25%

Р=0%

Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.0. Earthquakes with Мs≥6.0 is not expected. Inhabitants and vacationers of the Crimea within the next few years can be calm - the seismic danger in them does not threaten. In the Black Sea area (Krasnodar Kray, Abkhaziya, the northwest of Georgia) and at the health resorts of Kislovodsk, Pyatigorsk, Essentuki seismic situation is favorable, until strong earthquake from Ms≥6.0 them threatens.

After the publication of bulletin 001 in this SS occurred the earthquake on NW of Georgia (07.09.2009, M=6.1). The forecast of this earthquake see in the Communication dated September 8, 2009.

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

Earthquakes with Ms≥6.2 is not expected. Seismic safety situation. Pending an earthquake with M=5.0-5.2 does not pose a safety hazard. Potentially dangerous zone NE from Turkmenbashi to the end 2013 (M6.2). Residents of the cities of Turkmenbashi, Nebitdag, Gumdag of Turkmenistan and others in the area controlled by a strong earthquake with Ms≥6.2 is not threatened.

P_K=6%

P_W=8%

Р=0.4%

А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.2. Earthquakes with Мs≥6.2 is not expected. Seismic situation is safe, but is unstable. There is a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators.  

В. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Мs<6.2. Track is located in the attractor. The probability of earthquake is high, but situation thus far steady. Potentially dangerously by 2012 in the near-boundary with Iraq zone in the West of province Kurdistan (M5.8) and in the south of the province of Zanjan (M5.9).     

P_K=0%

P_W=10%

Р=0%

P_K=55%

P_W=64%

Р=35%

А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.2. Seismic situation is safe but unstable. The unspecific development of track is observed. There is an essential scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. It will potentially dangerously be in the province of Mazandaran (M6.4) by 2012, if thus far occur earthquake-indicators from M=5.3-5.8. If this making more active it does not occur, then by 2012 dangerously it can be near Teheran. The inhabitants of the capital of Ashgabad strong earthquake from Мs≥6.2 does not threaten.

В. Forecast earthquakes withс 5.8≤Мs<6.2. The unspecific development of track is observed. There is an essential scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. It will be within the next few years observed either the making more active of earthquake-indicators from M=5.3-5.6, the not represented dangers, or will occur atypical* earthquake from M=5.8.

*Atypical earthquake - this is earthquake on fault in SS, which did not appear itself by strong earthquake in the time of the description of system.

P_K=1%

P_W=9%

Р=0%

P_K=1%

P_W=43%

Р=0.5%

А. The West and South of Iran, U.A.Emirates. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.6. Occurs the preparation of earthquake from Ms=6.7 in the south of Iran. Track has a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. It is dangerous in the south of Iran in the province of Hormozgan and in the border zone of the province of Fars. There is expected strong earthquake from M=6.7, expected the maximum seismic intensity IX balls. The closing date of the realization of this earthquake March-April 2012.  After the date of the publication of bulletin 001 probability of this earthquake grew by 4% (on the entropy and on the cumulative energy it grew by 5%).

В. West of Iran. Forecast earthquakes with 6.2≤Мs<6.6. Track is located in the attractor, but there is a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. For the next years it will potentially dangerously be in the province of Fars, in the zone of that located by 100-150 km western, it is North Western from c. Shiraz, M6.2.

С. Юг Ирана. ОАЭ. Forecast earthquakes with 6.0≤Мs<6.6. Earthquake with the magnitude of 6.0≤Мs<6.6 in the south of Iran (province of Hormozgan) and in the United Arab Emirates is not expected. To inhabitants and to tourists Dubai and Abu Dhabi there is no seismic threat.

P_K=65%

P_W=9%

Р=6%

P_K=65%

P_W=42%

Р=27%

P_K=0.2%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.7. Strong earthquake is not expected. Trajectory is past below unstable region for the province of Khorasan in central Iran. As it was noted in Bulletin 001, there could occur strong earthquake, if in the system it would occur earthquake-indicator from M=5.8. Now until 2015 trajectory will be in the steady state. Then dangerously it can be in eastern Khorasan. Is potentially dangerous zone on the southeast of Iran in Baluchestan near the boundary with Pakistan (M7.1) by 2011. The earthquakes of the moderate force from 5.7<M<6.7 also present large danger to the population, but for this system we of them are not forecast, except central Iran.

В. Central Iran, provinces of Kerman and Yazd. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.2. Trajectory is located in the attractor, but situation now steady. It is potentially dangerous in the province of Kerman, in the region in the east from c.Kerman, on the Golbaf Sirch Fault. In the course of time, during the making more active of earthquake-indicators, here can be prepared strong earthquake from M=6.9.  

С. Central Iran, provinces of Kerman and Yazd. Forecast earthquakes with 5.7≤Мs<6.2. Proceeds the preparation of earthquake from Ms=5.7 on the Golbaf Sirch Fault. This earthquake can occur during the year, if in the system will be observed seismic calm.

P_K=66%

P_W=77%

Р=51%

P_K=25%

P_W=36%

Р=9%

P_K=55%

P_W=77%

Р=43%

А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.4. Earthquakes from Мs≥6.4 are not expected. In Sakhalin will within the next few years be seismic calm, in system can occur only the earthquakes from M<5.6. The probability of strong earthquake in Sakhalin on entropy is low, and on cumulative energy - high. There is a surplus of the isolated seismic energy of earthquake-indicators and a scarcity of entropy. The following strong earthquake from Ms>6.4 in Sakhalin is excluded until 2018. After the publication of Bulletin 001 in this SS the probability of strong earthquake grew by 9% because of a static increase in the entropy.

В. North of Sachalin. Forecast earthquakes with 5.6≤Ms<6.4. For the preparation of earthquake from M=5.6 the accumulated entropy is sufficient; however, there is a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. The earthquakes of the moderate force from 5.6≤M<6.4 on the north of Sakhalin within the next few years are not expected. Are expected earthquake-indicators from M=5.0-5.5.

С. Center and South of Sachalin. Forecast earthquakes with 5.6≤Ms<6.4. Situation not dangerous, earthquakes from 5.6≤M<6.4 in the center and in the south of Sakhalin are not expected. The probability of such earthquakes is equal to zero.

P_K=78%

P_W=43%

Р=34%

P_K=1%

P_W=12%

Р=0.1%

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

Earthquakes from Ms≥7.5 are not expected at least until 2018. After the publication of the Bulletin of 001 substantial changes did not occur. SS Koryak it relates to the systems, where in the historical past strong earthquake was not observed or there was not a information about them. In such cases for the analysis of the zones of instability on the energy and track diagrams we draw information about zones of the instability of close ones in the threshold magnitude and tectonics of seismic systems from other regions (it is utilized the property of self-similarity SS). In particular, for Koryak we used information from the seismic systems of Turkmenistan and South California. We thus far here have a realization only of one strong earthquake - Koryak, 20.04.2006, M7.8.

P_K=0%

P_W=2%

Р=0%

А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. Earthquakes with Мs≥7.8 are not expected. Trajectory is located under the attractor (zone of instability). The probability of strong earthquake in the system is small. There is a scarcity of the isolated energy of earthquake-indicators. Trajectory has a tendency to rise, this it indicates that within the next few years they are expected earthquake-indicators from 5.5<M<6.9. Trajectory is developed on the scenario of close one to the preparation of earthquakes 1971 and 1997.

В. North of Kamchatka. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.9. The earthquakes of the moderate force from 6.9<M<7.5 are expected. The unspecific development of track is observed, there is an essential scarcity of the isolated energy of earthquake-indicators. Situation is unstable. If essential seismic  activity it will not be, then soon (before the end 2010) can it will occur untypical earthquake with M6.9 at the joint of Kamchatka arc and Aleutian trench. Dangerously it is on the west-southwest of Ust' Kamchatsk (potentially dangerously in the oceanic zone, separated from the peninsula by 100-150 km, and on the north of Ust' Kamchatsk).

С. South of Kamchatka. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.9. Track is developed on the scenario of close to preparation of earthquake 1946 on the southeast of Kamchatka, there is a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. Expected to activate earthquake-indicators. Potentially dangerously in the coastal zone, situated south of Petropavlovsk Kamchatka on 100 km. Within the next few years here can be prepared earthquake from M6.9. Since the beginning of 2009 the probability of earthquake grew by 2% (on the entropy by 4%, and on the cumulative energy by 1%.

P_K=17%

P_W=13%

Р=2%

North

P_K=67%

P_W=86%

Р=57%

South

P_K=60%

P_W=71%

Р=42%

А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. Earthquakes with Мs≥7.8 are not expected. The probability of strong earthquake 0.1% (17%, 1%).

В. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.3. Earthquakes with Мs≥7.3 are not expected. The probability of strong earthquake 0% (0.7%, 1.2%).

С. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.9. Earthquakes with Мs≥6.9 are not expected. The probability of strong earthquake 0% (0.05%, 0.07%).

Strong earthquakes in central Kuriles do not bear danger for the inhabitants, since the nearest island Simushir is uninhabited. But they can form the waves of tsunami in Pacific Ocean.

P_K=17%

P_W=1%

Р=0.1%

P_K=0.7%

P_W=1.2%

Р=0%

P_K=0.05%

P_W=0.07%

Р=0%

Earthquakes with Мs≥7.8 is not expected. The trajectory is the attractor, but there is a shortage of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes. Track continues to be developed on the scenario of the close to the preparation of Tokachi Oki earthquake on September 25, 2003 (see Communication dated June 5, 2009). In the coming years will be an earthquake of 6.0<M<7.0. Potential hazards of the zone in the south-east of Hokkaido and east of Iturup. Here can be prepared strong earthquake from M=8.2-8.3 toward the end 2011 by the depth 45 km. Recall that the earthquake with 5.5<M<7.8 in the system are not controlled. Residents of Hokkaido and the South Kurile islands can be calm, while the risk of strong earthquakes with Ms≥7.4, which can cause noticeable damage and destruction, they are not threatened. Since the beginning of 2009 the probability grew by 3% (on the cumulative energy by 7%, on the entropy by 7%.

P_K=14%

P_W=26%

Р=4%

Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. Track now is developed, in accordance with the Communication dated August 13, 2009, on the scenario of the earthquake Tokachi Oki (M8.3) and will reach the unstable region of this earthquake by January 2011. So that the track would fall into the zone of the instability of this earthquake it was sufficient energy of one earthquake with magnitude 6.9, which will complete the scarcity of cumulative energy. Thus, at the beginning of 2011 on the southeast of Hokkaido can be prepared earthquake from M=8.3. Since the beginning of 2009 the probability of strong earthquake grew by 8% (on the cumulative energy by 3%, on the entropy by 7%).

P_K=70%

P_W=71%

Р=50%

А. Forecast earthquakes with 7.1≤Ms<7.8. Track has the high values of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators with the relatively low values of entropy. Until 2017 in the system strong earthquake from 7.1≤Ms<7.8 is not expected, will be observed relative seismic calm. Since the beginning of 2009 the probability of strong earthquakes grew by 10% (on the cumulative energy by 12%, on the entropy by 5%). In spite of the high values of probability, situation in Tokyo region is steady.

В. West coast of Central Honshu. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Мs<7.1. In the West of central Honshu, on the coast of Sea Japan the earthquakes from M>5.8 are not expected. Their probability is equal to zero.

С. East coast of central Honshu, Greater Tokyo area. Forecast earthquakes with 6.4≤Мs<7.1. In the subsystem it is now safe, the probability of strong earthquake to zero. In this subsystem was equal predicted earthquake dated August 10, 2009 of M=6.6 on the South coast of Honshu (see by Communication dated August 13, 2009). By August 2009 trajectory approached the unstable region of the earthquakes of the Izu-Hanto- Oki 1974.05.08, M=6.6 and Izu-Oshima-Kinkai 1978.01.14, M=6.8, whose epicenters were located to the southwest of Tokyo, region of Izu peninsula, 50-60 km east from the epicenter of earthquake 10.08.2009. The probability of earthquake in this subsystem in August 2009 reached P=41% (on entropy Pw=73%, and on cumulative energy Pk=56%). In Bulletin 001 also was noted the high probability of strong earthquake and danger in the region of peninsula to Izu in the middle of 2009.

P_K=68%

P_W=59%

Р=40%

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

А. Forecast earthquakes with 7.4≤Ms<7.8. At the beginning 2012 will be dangerous on the northeast of Honshu M=7.4, east of pref. Miyako, pref. Iwate 60 km in the ocean. Thus far in the system relative calm will be observed. The probability of earthquake is high.

В. North of Honshu (from North of pref. Miyagi to Hokkaido). Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Ms<7.4. It is potentially dangerous on the northeast of Honshu, east of c.Miyako, pref. Iwate, 60 km in the ocean. The probability of earthquake in the subsystem is high, but situation steadier than in the system.

С. North of Honshu (from pref. Ibaraki to Miyagi). Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.4. Earthquakes with 6.7<M<7.4 are not expected. If the making more actives of earthquake-indicators does not occur, then at the beginning 2012 can be prepared earthquake from M=6.7. The probability of strong earthquake is small. In the West of North Honshu, on the coast of Japan Sea the earthquakes from M>6.8 are not expected.

P_K=82%

P_W=72%

Р=59%

P_K=86%

P_W=83%

Р=75%

P_K=13%

P_W=3%

Р=0.4%

А. Forecast earthquakes with 7.4≤Ms<7.8. The unspecific development of track is observed, there is a scarcity of the isolated energy of earthquake-indicators. Situation is unstable. If seismic activation will not, in the next few years will occur untypical earthquake from M7.4, either south of Honshu on 100 km in Pacific Ocean, or in the coastal zone in the east from Kyushu.

В. South-West of Honshu, Shikoku. Forecast earthquakes with 6.9≤Ms<7.4. In the region of Nankai through, on the island land Fault  Median Line, to stretched through the islands Shikoku to Osaka, the earthquakes like Kobe (1995) with 6.8<M<7.4 are not expected. The probability of such earthquakes is equal to zero. On the coast of Sea of Japan strong earthquakes are not expected.

С. Kyushu. Forecast earthquakes with 6.7≤Ms<7.4. Situation is unstable. Here, not far from the coast in the east from Kyushu occurs preparation earthquake from M6.8. If seismic activation soon it will not be, then this earthquake will occur prior to the middle of 2011. Probability of strong earthquake high 58%. Since the beginning of 2009 the probability grew by 5% (on the cumulative energy by 3%, on the entropy by 4%.

P_K=14%

P_W=34%

Р=5%

P_K=0.3%

P_W=0.4%

Р=0%

P_K=69%

P_W=84%

Р=58%

Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.7. Situation in the system is not thus far dangerous. Trajectory is located in the attractor. Because of the essential seismic activation in 2009 the danger of strong earthquake moves aside for two years. Now strong earthquake from Ms>7.7 is excluded in the system prior to the middle of 2012. If noticeable seismic making more active in the system it will not be, then to the middle of 2012 it will be dangerously in the east Taiwan, in the coastal zone near c.Hualien. Here can be prepared strong earthquake with the magnitude Ms=7.9 and depth 33 km. Since the beginning of 2009 the probability of strong earthquake in the system it grew by 5% (on the cumulative energy to 7%, on the entropy to 7%), but situation became more stable. Southwest from is. Ryukyu (Japan) strong earthquakes from H<80 km are not expected.

P_K=53%

P_W=32%

Р=17%

А. Forecast earthquakes with 7.4≤Ms<7.7. Because of the essential seismic activation in 2009 the trajectory went around the regions of the instability of earthquakes from M=7.4 east of Taiwan. If noticeable seismic activation will not be, then in the system will be dangerously since 2012 to the subject of earthquake from 7.4≤Ms<7.8, otherwise this period removed. Since the beginning of 2009 the probability of strong earthquake in the system grew by 14% (on the cumulative energy by 16%, on the entropy by 9%), but situation became more stable.

В. Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Ms<7.4.  If noticeable seismic activity will not be, then in the system it will be safely until 2012 to the subject of earthquake from 7.0≤Ms<7.4. Because of the essential seismic activity in 2009 the situation in the system became more stable. 

С. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. In this subsystem southwest from islands Ryukyu (Japan), on August 17, 2009 occurred strong earthquake from M=6.7, H=10 km.  The probability of earthquake from M=6.7 in the subsystem before this earthquake was P=8% (Pk=25%, Pw=34%). The preparation of this earthquake was close to the preparation of earthquakes 1983.06.24, M6.7, H=44 km and 1994.05.24, M6.7, H=16 km, located in the same tectonic zone on 100 km are western. By 2011 this tectonic zone will be again dangerous, here can be prepared earthquake from M=6.7.

P_K=69%

P_W=57%

Р=39%

P_K=53%

P_W=29%

Р=16%

P_K=21%

P_W=5%

Р=1%

Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. Situation in the system not dangerous, trajectory is located in the attractor, there is a surplus of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators. Because of the seismic activity in 2009 dangerous period somewhat moves away itself. With the relative seismic calm, track to approach the hazardous zone at the beginning 2014. Strong earthquake from Ms=8.5 can be prepared in 2014 in the region of the Andaman Islands, (Port of Blair, India). The inhabitants of the coastal countries of the north of Indian Ocean within the next few years catastrophic earthquake, like the Nicobar 2004, and also tsunami do not threaten; however, are possible not less dangerous moderate earthquakes from Ms<7.8 (see forecasts in Myanmar).

P_K=41%

P_W=36%

Р=15%

А. Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Ms<7.8. Situation in the system is unstable. The essential scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators is observed. If in the system the making more active of earthquake-indicators will be observed, then track can fall into the zone of the instability of strong earthquakes on the North Western extremity of Sumatra, where can occur M7.3 earthquake. The inhabitants of the coastal countries of the north of the Indian Ocean Myanmar, Thailand and Andaman-Nikobar islands within the next few years strong earthquakes from 7.0≤Мs<7.8 and tsunami do not threaten.

В. Subsystem South. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. Situation in the subsystem steady, there is scarcity of earthquake-indicators. Is until 2012 possible earthquake from M=6.8 in the northwest of Sumatra.

С. Subsystem North. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. In the near future track will be located in the region of the Andaman islands, being periodically moved away and approaching a zone of instability. There can be prepared earthquake with M=6.6.

P_K=38%

P_W=35%

Р=13%

P_K=27%

P_W=28%

Р=8%

P_K=34%

P_W=21%

Р=7%

Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. In Bulletin 001 it communicated that the situation in the system is unstable. It is potentially dangerous in the West from Sumatra, where occurs the preparation of devastating earthquake with M8.4. Within the next few years this section alternate it will be pass from steady state to unstable and back, with the gradually increasing magnitude of the expected earthquake. In 2009 in this system occurred the earthquakes, which somewhat changed forecasts in the system and the subsystems (see Communication dated Aug 16, 2009 and Communication dated Oct 2, 2009). Potential danger remains in the West from Sumatra in the region of the Mentavay islands - Siberut, Sipura and coastal zones from Padanga, where occurs the preparation of strong earthquake with M8.5-8.4. It will be here dangerously by August 2010. Since the beginning of 2009 the probability of strong earthquake grew by 7% (on the cumulative energy by 3%, on the entropy by 13%).

P_K=49%

P_W=21%

Р=10%

А. Subsystem North of Sumatra. Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. In the northern subsystem such earthquakes are not expected, but occurs the preparation the above-mentioned catastrophic earthquake or strong foreshock from M=8.1. In the region of the islands of Mentavay - Sipura, Pagay Utara it will be dangerously by May 2010. The probability of earthquake is sufficiently high.

B. Subsystem South of Sumatra. Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. Track has sufficiently high values of cumulative energy of earthquake- indicators. The southern part of Sumatra within the next few years will be until 2015 seismic in the safe state. However, are it should not be forgotten that possible not less dangerous moderate earthquakes from M6.6-7.2.

P_K=78%

P_W=42%

Р=32%

P_K=51%

P_W=12%

Р=6%

Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. Situation in the system is not dangerous. There is a scarcity of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators. Strong earthquakes from Ms>7.8 within the next few years they are not expected. Potentially dangerous can be the southwest of Java toward the end 2013. To inhabitants of island Java and Bali within the next few years catastrophic earthquake from Ms>7.8  and tsunami from the local earthquakes does not threaten. After the publication of Bulletin 001 seismic activity in 2009 somewhat changed the results of the forecast in the system and the subsystems (see Communication from Sep.6, 2009).

P_K=7%

P_W=0.5%

Р=0.04%

Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.8. Earthquakes from 6.6<M<7.8 in the next 2 years are not expected. Situation in the system is not dangerous. Trajectory approaches an attractor. In the mainland part of Yava strong earthquake from Мs≥6.6 within the next few years is excluded, besides western extremity.  To inhabitants of island Java and Bali in the next 2 years strong earthquake from Ms>6.6  and tsunami does not threaten.

P_K=9%

P_W=1%

Р=0.1%

А. Subsystem West of Java. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Ms<6.6. Subsystems according to the sizes are small, they control Java island in the East and the West and 100 km coastal part south of Java. Situation in the subsystem the West of Java not dangerous. Will be soon observed the activation of earthquake-indicators with M5.0-5.6.

В. Subsystem East of Java. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Ms<6.6. In the east Java situation steady, there is no seismic danger until 2014.  To the inhabitants of islands Java and Bali within the framework controlled region strong earthquake from 5.8≤Мs<6.6 (to the similarity of earthquake Yogyakarta 2006) does not threaten. 

P_K=0.2%

P_W=0.3%

Р=0%

P_K=0.01%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.9. Situation in system is not dangerous. Strong earthquake from Мs≥6.9 within the next few years is excluded. The inhabitants of Mozambique within the next few years strong earthquake to the similarity of earthquake dated February 22, 2006, M7.2 does not threaten.

В. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Мs<6.9. Thus far situation is not dangerous. In spite of small probability, the stored energy of earthquake- indicators is sufficient for the preparation by 2011 of earthquake from M=5.8.

P_K=7%

P_W=2%

Р=0.1%

P_K=0.01%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.2. In spite of high probability situation in system is not dangerous. Track with the low values of entropy has the high value of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators. This means that strong earthquake from Ms>6.2 within the next few years are excluded. By 2017 potentially dangerously there can be in the east of D.R. Congo.

В. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Мs<6.2. The earthquakes of the moderate force are not expected, their probability is equal to zero.

P_K=94%

P_W=39%

Р=36%

Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.6. Situation in system is not dangerous. Strong earthquake from М≥6.6 in Afghanistan and Pakistan is not expected.

Retrospective. The last major earthquake occurred October 29, 2008 (deaths of 166 people). On the basis of seismic entropy, retrospectively analyzing the energy and track diagrams, was able to explain this event. A feature of this earthquake was that a source at intervals of 12 hours there were two earthquakes, the first - M6.4, the second - M6.6. Before these events, the probability of strong earthquake in the system amounted to P=3.75% (on entropy Р_W=10.30, and the cumulative energy P_K=36.38%). Before the first earthquake track was under the attractor and had a deficit of cumulative energy. Immediately after the first quake track fell into attractor and probability of earthquakes sharply it grew to P=5.27% (on entropy Р_W=10.30, and the cumulative energy P_K=51.13%). In fact, after the first quake was prepared by an earthquake with M=6.6, which happened after 12 hours. You can take it that the first earthquake was trigger for a second. Generally double sources are the specifics of the tectonic zones in Pakistan and their prediction is very important for practical forecasting and reduce casualties.

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. Situation in system is not dangerous. There is a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. The probability of strong earthquake is equal to zero. 

В. Forecast earthquakes with 7.5≤Ms<7.8. Situation in system prior to the middle of 2011 stable, then is expected the activation of earthquake-indicators from 6.0<M<7.0. The probability of strong earthquake on cumulative energy (21%) is higher than on entropy (8%).

С. Subsystem West of Tibet. Forecast earthquakes with 7.5≤Ms<7.8. The probability of earthquake is increased by 39% (72%, 54%). Potentially dangerously there can be to the middle of 2012 north of Bhutan in Tibet.

D. Subsystem East of Tibet. Forecast earthquakes with 7.5≤Ms<7.8. Probability of earthquake 0% (0%, 0%). It is not dangerous.

E. Subsystem North of Tibet. Forecast earthquakes with 7.5≤Ms<7.8. Probability of earthquake 0% (0.1%, 0.4%). When activated earthquake-indicators by 2014 potentially dangerously it can be on Kunlun Fault in the central are of Tibet.

F. Subsystem South of Tibet, Himalayas. Forecast earthquakes with 7.5≤Ms<7.8. Probability of earthquake very high 84% (94%, 90%). It is dangerous on north-east of India in the near-boundary zone with China and Myanmar, and also in the east Nepal and in the east Butane.

The retrospective forecast of last devastating earthquake in this system dated May 12, 2008 in China, Sychuan you can view in Bulletin 001.

P_K=21%

P_W=8%

Р=1.7%

Region on the northeast Bay of Bengal (the bounding area of Myanmar with India, China and Bangladesh) we investigated in detail, since the seismologists count this region potentially dangerous for giant tsunamigenic earthquakes. Such earthquake and tsunami in the coastal zone of Myanmar to the scales of possible human victims and material losses can exceed Nicobar earthquake dated December 26, 2004. Here we have revealed two seismic systems Western (coastal area, Arakan) and Eastern Myanmar (Shan plateau), demarcated by fault of Sagaing, is refined the boundary of Burma micro-plate in the south.

А. SS Myanmar. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. SS Myanmar and subsystem relate to badly determined according to our classification; therefore the quality of forecast here poor. To forecast the waiting time of earthquake is impossible. There is a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. It is potentially dangerous on the north of Fault Sagaing, there can be prepared strong earthquake from M=7.8. Probability of strong earthquake 69% (84%, 83%).

В. Subsystem Western Myanmar. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. We can make only comparative analysis of real situation in this system with other similar SS, using a property of self-similarity. Analysis shows that the track of the preparation of strong earthquake is developed with the relatively low values of cumulative energy. Track is not similar to preparation of the classical earthquakes of subduction zones. Track is similar to the preparation of southern California Kern Caunty earthquake 1952.07.21, M7.7 (White Wolf fault zone, reverse faulting, with a left-lateral component). So that above-mentioned  tsunamigenic mega-earthquake thus far are excluded. In SS Western Myanmar it is already prepared strong earthquake from M=7.8 but to estimate time is impossible. The probability of earthquake is very high (Pk=97%, Pw=94% P=91%). It is dangerous in continental part of Arakan of the subduction zone Burma, in area of the north–south trending zone of Kaladan and Kabaw Faults. In the source of future earthquake the predominance of vertical displacement to the horizontal in relationship 60% to 40% is expected. Mechanism of the expected earthquake - reverse faulting, with a right-lateral component. In the hazardous zone of the forecasted earthquake falls near-boundary regions Bangladesh (Chittagong), India (Mizoram), Myanmar (Arakan) (Lat 21-23 deg N). According to our estimations the break must not reach the coastal zone therefore Tsunami is excluded.

С. Subsystem Western Myanmar. Forecast earthquakes with 7.5≤Ms<7.8. It is potentially dangerous in the coastal zone of Burma in area of Ramree island and in the North of Sagaing Fault. Probability of earthquake high 55% (73%, 76%).

D. Subsystem Eastern Myanmar (Shan plateau, including Yunnan Province, China). Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.5. Track is located out of the attractor, but it has sufficiently high values of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators. Strong earthquake into province of Yunnan, China, can be prepared by 2016, M7.5. The probability of strong earthquake is now equal to zero.

Е. Subsystem Eastern Myanmar. Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Ms<7.5. On the Border Myanmar and the state of Yunnan, (China, in the region of Luxi, Mengdingjie) occurs the preparation of earthquake from M>7.0. Probability of earthquake 60% (Pk=85%, Pw=71%). If earthquake occurs within the next few years its magnitude will be equal to 7.3. After 2015 the magnitude of the expected earthquake will grow to 7.5, and source will migrate to the east, to the area of the source of the devastating earthquake of 1970, Tonghai (Yunnan Province, China).

Depending on the specific character of the development of seismic situation in the system micro-plate Burma, by 2012 the strongest possible earthquake from M7.5 near Rangoon.

P_K=84%

P_W=83%

Р=69%

P_K=97%

P_W=94%

Р=91%

P_K=73%

P_W=76%

Р=55%

P_K=12%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

P_K=85%

P_W=71%

Р=60%

SS North-Eastern China. Seismoactive region on the northeast of China includes the capital Beijing and the industrial tightly populated provinces. This region is known to seismologists by the fact that here on February 4, 1975 occurred the destructive Haicheng earthquake M=7.3, which was successfully predicted by the Chinese seismologists (2041 dead, but they were rescued hundreds of thousands of lives). But on July 28, 1976 here occurred the catastrophic Tangshan earthquake M=7.8, which on the losses and the human victims is considered as the most devastating in the last 400 years (according to the different estimations it perished from 240000 to 600000 people). Revealed here SS northeastern China relates to badly determined according to our classification. For the analysis of seismic situation we carried out the comparative analysis of real situation in this system with other similar SS, using a property of self-similarity. After more than 32 years, on the basis of the method of seismic entropy it was possible to prove that the Haicheng earthquake was trigger and forerunner of the Tangshan earthquake.

A. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. At present earthquakes from Ms≥7.8 are not expected. Situation in the year did not change. The probability of earthquake on the entropy is higher than on the cumulative energy (Pk=15%, Pw=29% P=4%). Trajectory has a scarcity of cumulative energy therefore it is expected the making more active of indicator-earthquakes. Studies this system showed that historical earthquakes 1966 (M=7.0), 1969 (M=7.3) and 1975 (M=7.3) on NE of China for 10 years substantially raised the track of the preparation of strong earthquake from M=7.8, which with the great significance of entropy had a scarcity of cumulative energy. The Haicheng earthquake of 1975 was the latter in this series and therefore it is the trigger of the Tangshan earthquake of 1976.

В. Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. At present earthquakes from Ms≥7.3 are not expected, in spite of the high value of the probability of earthquake (Pk=70%, Pw=80% P=56%). Here also situation in the year did not change, track has a scarcity of cumulative energy, which indicates the nearest making more active of indicator-earthquakes.

С. Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Ms<7.3. At present on NE of China occurs the preparation of the earthquake  M=7.0. That expected activity of earthquake-indicators did not occur in the past year; therefore situation substantially did not change. In the system are expected the indicator-earthquakes with magnitudes 5.8-6.0 (let us recall that such earthquakes in densely populated China lead to the destruction and the human victims). Is most dangerous the West and the South of the province Hebei, the bounding area of the provinces Shandong and Henan, the coastal area of the province Jiangsu. After such indicator-earthquakes in system can be prepared strong earthquake with the magnitude M=7.0. Dangerous is potentially the region, situated W-SW from the Bohai sea (south of the province Hebei and the bounding area of the provinces Shandong and Henan). Probability P=73% (Pk=84%, Pw=87%).

D. Subsystem East, coastal area. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. There is a scarcity of earthquake-indicators. It is potentially dangerous in the region of Haicheng, M=6.8. Probability P=57% (Pk=70%, Pw=82%).

Е. Subsystem West, including Greater Beijing. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. There is a scarcity of earthquake-indicators. Occurs the preparation of earthquake from M=7.0. It is potentially dangerous in Greater Beijing area. Probability is high.

P_K=15%

P_W=29%

Р=4%

P_K=70%

P_W=80%

Р=56%

P_K=84%

P_W=87%

Р=73%

SS Egypt-Israel. Revealed here SS Egypt-Israel includes Sinai peninsula and transform-fault zone (Agaba-Levant faults), which is stretched from the Red Sea in the south to Syria on the north. It includes the seismoactive territories of Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Saudi Arabia. The revealed here seismic system and subsystems, which respons to the strong earthquakes it relates to badly determined according to our classification. For their analysis we used the property of self-similarity. Are here known historical strong earthquakes (May 1202 and November 1759, M=7.5).

A. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.3. At present earthquakes from Ms≥7.3 are not expected. The probability of strong earthquake is sufficiently high (Pk=87%, Pw=88% P=76%) but time to predict difficultly. Strong earthquake from Ms≥7.3 can be prepared by 2016 on the Levant fault. This period can approach taking into account possible passages in the catalog of historical earthquakes.

В. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.3. At present earthquakes from Ms≥6.6 are not expected, but occurs the preparation of earthquake from M=6.8. Probability of this earthquake now small P=0.5% (Pk=9%, Pw=6%). In the end of 2011 can be prepared strong earthquake with M=6.8-7.0 most likely in the south Sinai in the Red Sea. Thus far are expected the indicator-earthquakes with M=5.0-5.3.

P_K=87%

P_W=88%

Р=76%

P_K=9%

P_W=6%

Р=0.5%

SS New Madrid. This SS includes seismic zones New Madrid and Wabash Valley, located in the border zone of the states Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Indiana (central area of USA). This anomalous intraplate seismoactive zone is known by the fact that in 1811 (on December 16, M7.3, M7.0) and 1812 (on January 23, M7.1 on February 7, M7.4) here occurred the flash of the cascade of devastating earthquakes. It is important to note that these events, which occurred in 2 monthly intervals closely each other, are interconnected, but they are the separate earthquakes, timed to the different branches of faults. At the beginning operated southwestern branch, then northeastern with the mechanisms of right strike-slip. These events as a result led to the thrust in the central segment, which is stretched transversely to first two. Nature of this seismic activity explains by the fact that here the earth's crust hides relict rift zone (Reelfoot of rift), which weakens the earth's crust and periodically it leads to accumulation and discharging of stresses. Now this zone is manifested in essence by the weak seismicity of М<4.0 but periodically proceed the moderate earthquakes with the magnitudes from 5 to 6, which present danger. It interests together with the forecast of these moderate earthquakes, seismologists, when here occurs strong earthquake from M>7.0 will be able it will be repeated the pattern of almost 200 summer remotenesses. Let us try to answer these questions on the basis of the method of seismic entropy.

A. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.0. At present earthquakes with Мs≥7.0 are not expected. Revealed SS New Madrid and its subsystems make it possible to restore and to describe the possible scenario of the cascade of devastating earthquakes 1811-1812 yrs. and to extrapolate them to the future. In contrast to other SS here (in intraplate SS) seismic processes weak and proceed considerably slower. As a result the process of the preparation of catastrophic earthquakes is extended by several centuries. On the language of the method of seismic entropy in the northern and southern subsystems of this system for a period of several centuries simultaneously occurred the preparation of two earthquakes from M=7.0-7.3. Track thus far with the high values of entropy had substantial low value of cumulative energy what is the consequence of the absence of earthquakes with 6.0<M<7.0. Three strong earthquakes 1811 and 1812 yrs. in two months substantially raised the track of the preparation of catastrophic earthquake in SS New Madrid, after completing the scarcity of cumulative energy they led on February 7, 1812 to the earthquake from M=7.4. At present the value of cumulative energy in the system it is equal to 14.0, and entropy - 16.8. With the present growth rate in the entropy only by 2060 the entropy will exceed value of 18, after which are possible the earthquakes with М>7.0. Because of the absence of earthquakes from M6.0-7.0, evidently the scenario of the cascade of earthquakes will be repeated after 2060, can change only time interval in 2 months.

В. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥5.1 (Mb≥5.4). At present before 2036 earthquakes with Мs≥5.1 are not expected. The probability of this earthquake is now on the northeast of system equal to P=0%, and for southwest P=0.3% (the border zone of Missouri-Arkansas-Tennessee). By 2036 there can be prepared moderate earthquake with Mb=5.7.

SS Vrancea. This miniature SS has the sizes of 40x80 km and a depth of 180 km it is included the deep-focus (70-180 km) seismoactive zone of Vrancea in Rumania, where periodically occur strong earthquakes (on November 10, 1940, M7.7; on March 4, 1977, M7.4; on August 30, 1986, M7.1; on May 30, 1990, M6.9). These earthquakes are dangerous by the fact that can cause destruction and the victims not only in Romania, but also in the extensive territory of the countries of South-Eastern Europe. The seismic intensity from such deep-focus earthquake in Moscow can reach 5-6 balls. Taking into account the increased interest in this zone, we estimated times and magnitudes of the expected strong earthquakes on the basis of the method of seismic entropy.

A. Forecast earthquakes with М≥7.3. At present earthquakes from M≥7.3 are not expected. Track has sufficiently high values of cumulative energy and scarcity of entropy. With the present growth rate in the entropy deep-focus earthquake (H=80-110 km) with the magnitude M=7.4 will be prepared toward the end 2014. Probability of this earthquake now P=0.5% (Pk=14%, Pw=3%).

 В. Forecast earthquakes with 6.3≤Ms<7.3. At present earthquakes from 6.3<М<7.3 are not expected. The probability of earthquake high P=12% (Pk=26%, Pw=46%), the state of track is unstable. There is an essential scarcity energy of earthquake-indicators. If seismic activity will not be, then by 2012 can be prepared earthquake from M=6.4.

С. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Ms<6.3. At present earthquakes from 5.8<М<6.3 are not expected. The probability of earthquake high P=19% (Pk=29%, Pw=65%), but the state of track is thus far steady. For preparation of earthquakes with М<6.3 there is an essential scarcity of energy earthquake-indicators. The high values of entropy are connected with the preparation of earthquake from M=6.4.

P_K=13.8%

P_W=3.3%

Р=0.46%

P_K=26%

P_W=46%

Р=12%

P_K=29%

P_W=65%

Р=19%

Forecast earthquakes with М≥7.0.  The latter of catastrophic earthquake dated Jan 12, 2010, M7.2, Port au Prince, took away the life of more than 250 thous. pep. The retrospective forecast of this earthquake see Communication dated Jan 31, 2010. Currently in this system the earthquake with M≥7.0 are not expected.

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

Mega SS CHILE. This system is largest seismic system of world, revealed by us; it has an extent of more than 3000 km. Attractor for this mega-system it has the highest values of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators and entropy. In this system, in the south of central Chile, on May 22, 1960 occurred the strongest of known earthquakes in the world, M=9.5.

Chilean earthquake (19:11:20) on May 22  1960, M=9.5, had 4 strong foreshocks from M>7.0, strongest of which occurred on May 21, M=7.9 and many aftershocks occurred, with 5 of magnitude 7.0 or greater. Extensive destruction was in Concepcion, Valdivia and Puerto Montt area, many small cities and villages were practically destroyed. Were observed massive landslides, violent volcanic eruptions and extensive deformations of the earth's surface. The formed waves of tsunami caused destruction and victim along the coastline of Chile, into Hawaii, Japan and along the coasts in the entire zone of Pacific Ocean.

Retrospective. In the MSS of Chile we made a retrospective forecast Concepcion-Valparaiso earthquake, February 27, 2010, M=8.8, which had a plane of slip 600x100 km. The trajectory of the preparation of this catastrophic earthquake, which started after the Chilean earthquake of 1960, 49 years it was located in the steady zone out of the attractor and only to the middle of 2009 it approached the attractor. There was already by July 2009 prepared and it was expected strong earthquake from M=8.8, which occurred after 7 months. The distinctive feature tracks training earthquake in MSS of Chile is that they accumulate a very high values of cumulative energy earthquakes-indicators before closer to attractor and approaching a zone of instability on the left. I.e. tracks almost 98-99% of time were in steady state. The track of Chilean earthquake on May 22, 1960 had improbably high values of cumulative energy and entropy.  The average period frequency is 44 years. Until February 27 the probability of earthquake from Ms≥8.5 in the system was high P=79.24% (Pw=82.90%, Pk=95.60%).

А. Forecast earthquakes with М≥8.5. At present earthquakes from М≥8.5 are not expected.

В. Forecast earthquakes with 8.0≤Ms<8.5.  At present earthquakes from М≥8.0 are not expected.

С. Subsystem North of Chile. Forecast earthquakes with 7.8≤Ms<8.0.  Track approaches the attractor. Probability of earthquake  7.8≤Ms<8.0 is increased Р=17% (P_W=39%, P_K=44%). Potentially dangerous in 150 km of coastal Chile South of Antofagasta (see Fig.1).  

D. Subsystem South of Chile. Forecast earthquakes with 7.8≤Ms<8.0.  At present earthquakes from М≥7.8 are not expected.

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

P_K=44%

P_W=39%

Р=17%

SS Puerto Rico. This system occupies the local region east of SS Haiti on the northeast of Caribbean plate with the size of 550x250 km. Tectonics it is caused by complex interaction Caribbean plate with the North American plate, system includes the Puerto Rico Trench and the Virgin Islands Trough. Puerto Rico and Virgin islands are situated on the micro plate-block, that are located between the downbent parts of the major plates. Strongest earthquakes in SS: 1787, M8.1 (Puerto Rico Trench), 1867, M7.5 (Anegada Trough), 1918, 7.5 (Mona Canyon), 1943, M7.8 (Northern Mona Passage). All these earthquakes generated the strong waves of tsunami. SS Puerto Rico relates to badly determined according to our classification. There is one reliable completed cycle - this is the preparation the 1943 earthquake.

Forecast earthquakes with М≥7.0. Situation in the system dangerous, on the north of Puerto Rico is expected strong earthquake from M=7.3-7.5. Probability of earthquake high P=80% (Pw=95%, Pk=85%). The last track of the preparation of strong earthquake started after earthquake 1943. At the present time (on March 31, 2010) track on the entropy has long ago exceeded the point of instability 1943, and on the cumulative energy there is an essential scarcity. Apparently, strong earthquake from M>7.3 will occur after earthquakes from M=6.5-6.9, whose probability is also high.

P_K=85%

P_W=95%

Р=80%

SS Baja California, FORECAST, Ms≥6.6. For the development of boundaries this system we studied the seismic zone, which is stretched to the southeast into the Gulf of California. Seismicity is here caused by interaction of Pacific Ocean plate with North American plate. The boundary of plates consists of a series right-lateral transform faults of North Western orientation, which are stretched from the south of Gulf California to Salton Sea Trough in South California, where terminate San Andreas Fault. These faults are disconnected by the spreading centers with the high heat fluxes.

RETROSPECTIVE. In SS Baja California we made a retrospective forecast of Sierra El Mayor Earthquake on April 4, 2010. The trajectory of the preparation of this strong earthquake started after the earthquake on October 17, 1979 and toward the end 2009 it was located below attractor. Earthquake-indicator dated December 30, 2009, M=5.8  raised track, it fell into the zone close to the unstable region for the Imperial Fault . Earthquake occurred on 4 April, 50 km is southwestern than the Imperial Fault, on the parallel Laguna Salada Fault. On the Laguna Salada Fault in the system occurred historical earthquake on February 23, 1892, M=6.9; however, its trajectory to us was unknown. For this reason the retrospective forecast of the place of earthquake - Fault Imperial or Laguna Salada. The distinctive feature of the tracks preparation of strong earthquakes in SS Baja California is that they have relatively low values of cumulative energy with the high values of entropy. Until April 4 the probability of earthquake from Ms≥6.6 in the system was high Р=50.90% (P_W=83.74% P_K=60.77%). Thus, a strong earthquake, preparation of which lasted 29 years, it was possible to expect since the beginning of 2010 on the Imperial Fault or Laguna Salada Fault. Now in the system it is not dangerous, earthquakes from M≥6.6 are not expected.

SS Gulf of California, FORECAST, Ms≥6.6. System is stretched on the Gulf of California by 900 km and has a width of 300 km. The strongest earthquakes have magnitudes 6.9-7.0. Is outlined migration in time of earthquakes with M≥6.6 from southeast to northwest. Last strong earthquake occurred on August 3, 2009, M=6.9. The probability in the system before this earthquake was equal Р=41% (P_W=81% P_K=51%). Now in the system it is not dangerous, earthquakes from M≥6.6 are not expected.

P_K=0%

P_W=0%

Р=0%

SS CAYMAN ISLANDS. This system is an extended area west of the SS Haiti in the northwest Caribbean plate up to the center of Guatemala with size of 1400x250 km. Tectonics due to interaction Caribbean plate with the North American plate on the Cayman Trench. The system includes left strike-slip faults: Motagua fault, Swan Fault, Walton Fault, Oriente Fault, separated by the Cayman spreading centre. Strongest earthquakes in SS: 1917, M7.4 (Oriente Fault), 1941, M7.1 (Jamaica SW), 1976, M7.5 (Guatemala), 2009, M7.2 (Honduras).

Forecast earthquakes with  М≥7.0. At present earthquakes from М≥7.0 are not expected.

Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. In the near future will be potentially dangerous to the Oriente Fault Zone. In the second half of 2010 south of the Cayman Islands can be prepared by an earthquake with М6.6. Then the danger may migrate to the south-west of Cuba. So far (on May 5, 2010) the probability of earthquake with М=6.6-6.7 is equal to Р=21% (P_W=31%, P_K=67%).  In the western part of the system, including Belize, Guatemala (east), Honduras (north) a strong earthquake is not expected.

P_K=67%

P_W=31%

Р=21%

SS PERU.  This system is located north of the SS Chili, includes Peru, southern Ecuador and western Brazil, has the size 2000x750 km. Tectonics caused subduction of oceanic Nazca plate beneath the South American plate at a velocity of 8 cm/yr. In SS Peru subduction  has some features: the classical subduction zone with the plane dipping 30° is located in the southern Peru (manifested deep focus seismicity and active volcanism), and flat subduction in central-northern areas of Peru, the Nazca plate at a depth of 100 km passes in a horizontal state (there is no deep focus seismicity and active volcanism). Strongest earthquakes in SS:  1868, M9.0 (southern Peru, killed thousands people), 1942, M8.1 (off the coast of central Peru), 1966, M8.1 (off the coast from Callao, claimed about 125 lives), 1970, M7.8 (west of Chimbite, 50,000 people killed), 1974, M7.9 (Lima area), 2001, M8.2 (Arequipa-Camana-Tacna area, 150 people killed), 2007, М8.0 (Pisco, central Peru, 514 people killed ).  

Forecast earthquakes with  М≥7.8. Track approaches an attractor, there is a scarcity of energy earthquake-indicators, equal to energy of earthquake from M6.6. If occurs earthquake with M=6.6-6.7, then track can fall into the zone of instability for the coastal area in central Peru from Trujillo to Chimbote, where can occur earthquake M7.8. This state will be preserved in the next two years. At the present time (on May 20, 2010) the probability of earthquake from M=7.8 is equal to Р=0.9% (P_W=11%, P_K=8%).

Subsystem SOUTH PERU. Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. Track approaches an attractor, there is a scarcity of energy earthquake-indicators. At the present time (on May 20, 2010) the probability of earthquake with М=7.3 is equal to Р=9% (P_W=46%, P_K=20%). Is expected activity of earthquake- indicators from M=6.5-7.0