Bullet011e

	SS ITALY. The forecast earthquake with Мs≥6.2 (monitoring since 1995)	Probability
	Forecast of earthquakes from Мs≥6.2. The system includes the entire territory of Italy and the border areas of France, Switzerland, Austria, Slovenia, the coastal areas of Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. In general, the seismotectonics of the region is characterized by the interaction of far advanced Adriatic microplate by the North and the African plate with the Eurasian. The system has a depth of 500 km and includes the zone of deep seismicity in the south-east of the Tyrrhenian Sea. After the publication of Bulletin 002 of February 28, 2010 in this system of sensitive earthquake-indicators it was not so predictions are not changed. Currently, the trajectory on the track diagram is out of the attractor, so in Italy, in the bordering countries and on the Adriatic coast of Slovenia, Croatia and Montenegro earthquake with magnitude Ms≥6.2 are not expected.	P_K=0% P_W=0% Р= 0%
	CENTRAL ITALY. The forecast earthquake with 5.8≤Мs<6.2
	After the publication of Bulletin 002 of February 28, 2010 in this system of sensitive earthquake-indicators it was not so predictions are not changed. At present trajectory on the track diagram is located out of the attractor; therefore in central Italy (from Calabria to Perugia) earthquake with the magnitudes Ms≥5.8 are not expected. Let us recall that in this time can occur the indicator-earthquakes with magnitudes 5.4-5.7, which are also dangerous.	P_K=0% P_W=0% Р= 0%
	NORTHERN ITALY. The forecast earthquake with 5.7≤Мs<6.2
	Trajectory on the track diagram is located in the attractor; the probability of earthquake with the magnitude 5.8≤Мs<6.2 on the north of Italy high. In spite of this, situation on the north-west of Italy, on the southeast of France, in the Alps is not dangerous. After the publication of Bulletin 002 of February 28, 2010 the track was developed only statically, the probability on entropy increased by 2%. There is a certain scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators, which corresponds to energy of M=5.2 earthquake. Instability corresponding to M6.0 earthquake, now localized just below the instability for the Ancona-San Marino-Rimini. It will be dangerous until the end of October 2010, if triggered an earthquake-indicator M5.2. Then instability will migrate to the north, to the area of Verona. At the end 2011 danger will move to the northeast of Italy, on the Border with Slovenia and Austria, M5.7.	P_K=63% P_W=73% Р=46%
	SOUTHERN ITALY. The forecast earthquake with 6.0≤Мs<6.2
	А. Shallow H<40 km The situation in the system continues to be dangerous, trajectory is located in the attractor, there is a scarcity of energy indicator-earthquakes. In the West of Sicily or Calabria can be prepared the earthquake from M~6.1, H<40 km. Most likely this earthquake will be trigger and on the time it will occur after shallow earthquake from M5.6 in the south of Italy, in Calabria or Sicily. The probability of strong earthquake is very high, the situation becomes critical in the next 2-3 years. Strong shallow earthquakes from M>6.2 (like earthquakes Pizzo, 1905 and Messina, 1908) are not expected. В. Deep focus 250 km<H<350 km After the publication of Bulletin 002 of February 28, 2010 the forecasts has not changed. Soon deep-focus earthquakes from M>6.2 here are not expected. Trajectory through the previous it is located in the zone of the instability of the deep-focus earthquakes H=250-350 km in SE area of the Tyrrhenian sea, but there is an essential scarcity of energy indicator-earthquakes. Let us note that the intensity from the source of deep strong earthquakes on the surface can be III-IV ball, that completely not dangerously and it cannot cause destruction and victims. The danger in tsunami from such earthquakes is also negligible (to 10 cm).	P_K=73% P_W=96% Р=71% P_K=39% P_W=78% Р=31%
	CENTRAL CALIFORNIA (USA). The forecast earthquake with Мs≥5.8 (monitoring since 1995)
	Forecast of earthquakes from Мs≥6.2. After the publication of Bulletin 002 of February 28, 2010 the forecasts has not changed. The trajectory continues to grow due to the static growth of entropy. If the system will continue only increase the entropy of a static and will not happen seismic activity, in March 2011, the trajectory approaches the zone of instability on a segment of San Andreas Fault near Parkfield. From March to May 2011 in the area of Parkfield can be prepared by a strong earthquake with M=6.0. The probability of strong earthquake in the system now is Рk=44%, Pw= 62%, P=28%. Over the past 6 months has increased the probability of 1%. In the northern part of the SS Central California on the branches of San Andreas fault are potentially hazardous zones with M=5.8 and M=6.6 (see Communication from October 4, 2009). At the San Andreas Fault in Central California excluded disastrous earthquake Мs≥7.5 (like the San Francisco earthquake of 1906), at least until 2014.	P_K=44% P_W=62% Р=28%
	SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (USA). The forecast earthquake with Мs≥5.8.
	А. Forecast of catastrophic earthquakes with Мs≥7.5 in South California, earthquakes in the likeness of 1857 in Fort Tijon, 1952 Kern Caunty, 1992 Landers, with the large material losses and the victims. After the publication of Bulletin 002 of February 28, 2010 the track was developed only statically. Forecasts did not change. There are two scenarios of the development of seismicity. In the first scenario, the situation may develop by analogy with the preparation of earthquake Fort Tijon. Possible earthquake in Parkfield in the first half of the 2011, M=6.0 could serve as a trigger for catastrophic earthquake in 2011 with M=7.8. The probability of such earthquakes Рk=78%, Pw=73%, P=57%. In 6 months the probability grew by 2%, on the entropy by 3%. In the second scenario dangerously will on San Andreas Fault southern of first scenario. The track of the preparation of catastrophic earthquake has high values of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes and scarcity of entropy. This means that in the coming years a large seismic activity should not be expected and the growth of entropy will largely static. In other words, catastrophic earthquake is energetically prepared, but time is not yet mature. The probability of a strong earthquake on the cumulative energy is high and on the entropy is low. With 2014 until 2016 will be dangerous on the segment of San Andreas Fault in Southern California (from Palmdale through San Bernardino to Riverside). By that time here will be prepared earthquake M=7.7-7.9. In the zone of influence of the forecasted earthquake falls Los Angeles. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 occurred Sierra El Mayor Earthquake in Baja California (NW Mexico). This earthquake increased the probability of the first scenario of the preparation of catastrophic earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in comparison with the second (see Communication dated April 9, 2010). The closing date of realization of one of two scenarios October 2017. В. Forecast of earthquakes with 6.3≤Мs<7.5. In seismic subsystems Los Angeles (the big Los Angeles area) and San Bernardino has a large deficit of earthquake-indicator energy - a sign of preparation of the above-described earthquake with M≥7.5 on the San Andreas Fault, but weaker earthquakes with 6.3≤Ms<7.5 are not expected. In the seismic subsystem Garlock Fault trajectory, on the contrary, has the necessary value of the cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators for the production of a catastrophic earthquake with M≥7.5, but there is a large deficit of entropy. In the seismic subsystem Faults San Jacinto, Imperial after the earthquake of 4 April 2010, M=7.3, Sierra El Mayor in Baja California (NW Mexico) forecasts changed. Now earthquakes with 6.3≤Ms<7.5 are not expected. Potentially dangerous to be after 2015 on the northern segment of the San Jacinto Fault. С. Forecast of earthquakes with 5.8≤Мs<6.3 in Southern California. In the area of Los Angeles has deficit of emitted a cumulative energy. Until mid-2012 in the Los Angeles area earthquake occurs with M=5.8-6-0. The probability of such earthquake now on cumulative energy low and entropy high Рk=70%, Pw=93%, P=65%. In 6 months the probability increased by 1%. Likely earthquake occurs East of Pasadena on the Sierra Madre Trust Fault. In seismic subsystem Faults San Jacinto-Imperial after the earthquake of 4 April 2010, M=7.3, Sierra El Mayor in Baja California (NW Mexico), the situation discharged and forecasts have changed. Now earthquakes with 5.8≤Ms<6.3 are not expected. The probability of such earthquakes are Pk=17%, Pw=3%, P=0.4%. Until 2014 an earthquake with M=5.8-6.0 is expected in the subsystem San Bernardino, near the San Andreas Fault. The probability of such earthquake are Pk=18%, Pw=57%, P=10%.	P_K=78% P_W=73% Р=57% P_K=15% P_W=3% Р=0.4% P_K=70% P_W=93% Р=65% P_K=18% P_W=57% Р=10%
	OWENS VALLEY (California, USA) Мs≥6.4 (monitoring is from February 1, 2010)
	А. Forecast of catastrophic earthquakes with Мs≥7.5. In this system known historical devastating earthquake Owens Valley 1872.03.27 M=7.6. In the mechanism of this earthquake had prevailed right lateral slip, the gap of faulting reached 160 km. Since then, has 138 years, in this system earthquakes with M>6.5 did not occur. This system relates to the class of those of badly determined; there is nothing reliable completed seismic cycle. Forecast catastrophic earthquakes little information, however, comparative analysis shows that entropy is earthquake already mature, but there is a shortage of cumulative energy indicator-earthquakes. В. Forecast of earthquakes with 6.4≤Мs<7.5. Trajectory is located in the attractor. The probability of a strong earthquake Рk=18%, Pw=55%, P=10%. In 6 months the probability increased by 2%. By 2020, in the Mammoth Lakes can be prepared earthquake with M=6.4-6.5. This earthquake can provoke earthquake with M>7.5 after 2020.	P_K=18% P_W=55% Р=10%
	AZORES-ATLANTIC-PORTUGAL Мs≥6.4
	А. Forecast of catastrophic earthquakes with Мs≥7.7. The trajectory of the preparation of strong earthquake from Мs≥7.7 is located in the attractor and has very high values. Because of the large uncertainty of data we preserve the dangerous situation, located west southwest of Portugal (150-250 km) on the bottom of Atlantic Ocean within the next few years. To end 2014 southwest of Lisbon at a distance 300 km in the ocean can occur strong earthquake from M=8.0. Then situation somewhat is stabilized and danger will be moved away from Portugal and migrate to the West on 500 km. There to middle 2015 will be possibly already earthquake from M=8.1-8.2. The closing date of the realization of oceanic strong earthquake the end of 2016. Such earthquakes are dangerous by the fact that from them can form the waves of tsunami from 5 to 10 m. The large uncertainty of forecast it is connected with the fact, system is badly determined and that the tectonic processes proceed here relatively slowly. В. Forecast of earthquakes with 6.4≤Мs<7.5. In 6 months the probability of such earthquakes on the entropy grew by 5%. Now trajectory intersects the region of instability, which corresponds to the zone of that stretching southwest of Portugal (150-250 km) on the bottom of Atlantic Ocean to the West. Here can be prepared strong earthquake from M=6.5. Danger to be preserved prior to the end of this year. Earthquakes from 7.0<М<7.7 are not expected. For populating the coastal towns of Portugal and Morocco the forecasted earthquakes are dangerous only from the point of view of the appearance from them of the waves of tsunami.	P_K=86% P_W=84% Р=72% P_K=7% P_W=17% Р=1%
	MOROCCO-PORTUGAL-West SPAIN Мs≥6.2
	Earthquakes with Мs≥6.2 is not expected, the situation is not dangerous. The trajectory is outside the attractor, the probability of an earthquake equal to zero. For people and tourists a favorable situation for at least the next years. All resorts Morocco, Western and SW Spain, Portugal seismically safe from earthquakes with Ms≥6.2, causing major damage and casualties. It will be recalled that the Atlantic Ocean coastal cities of these countries may be subject to tsunamis from the ocean earthquakes (see Predictions AZORES ...).	P_K=0% P_W=0% Р=0%
	ALGERIA-East SPAIN Мs≥6.2
	Earthquakes with Мs≥6.2 is not expected, the situation is not dangerous. The trajectory is outside the attractor, the probability of an earthquake equal to zero. Prior to the middle of 2011 on the north of Algeria are expected the indicator-earthquakes from mb=5.0-5.7. For people and tourists a favorable situation for at least the next two years. All resorts SE Spanish island Mallorca, Menorca and Ibiza seismically safe from earthquakes with Ms≥6.2, causing major damage and casualties. Recall that coastal earthquake in northern Algeria could bring (up to 2 meters) waves of the tsunami on the southern shores of resort islands of Mallorca, Menorca and Ibiza! Such waves can cause damage to yachts, boats in the coastal sites of the islands.	P_K=2% P_W=0.8% Р=0.02%
	Eastern TURKEY Мs≥6.6
	А. Forecast of earthquakes with Мs≥6.6. Seismic situation in the Armenian upland continues to remain critical and for long this situation cannot be held. Delay will lead only to strengthening of the magnitude of the expected catastrophe and to unforeseen consequences. Now in the east Turkey near Erzincan city is expected catastrophic earthquake with the magnitude of Ms=7.9. Faulting for such earthquake to be extended on the North- Anatolian Fault to the West. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010, on the east Turkey, instead of the expected catastrophe on March 2, 2010 occurred the earthquake from M=6.0, which somewhat complicated situation. Now, due to a static increase of entropy, trajectory somewhat was removed from the unstable region, now the scarcity of cumulative energy for the starting of strong earthquake was equal to energy of earthquake from M=5.9. By the trigger mechanism, operational forerunner already can be any earthquake-indicator from M=5.9 within the framework SS Armenian upland. For this reason we attentively follow the situation and will try to give operational forecast. Generally the preparation of the expected catastrophic earthquake in the east of Turkey, on the North-Anatolian Fault since 2003 has essential distinctive special features in comparison with the preparation for the previous catastrophes in this region in the last 200 years. In more detail about these special features we will have a talk after the realization of catastrophe. In the destructive zone of action in the territory of Turkey fall the cities Erzincan , Refahiye, Susehri and surrounding settlements. В. Forecast of catastrophic earthquakes with Мs≥7.5. For reliability forecast of the above catastrophe we first present the results of monitoring on the North-Anatolian Fault in megasystem. Monitoring results fully confirm the above prediction. It is dangerous on the eastern segment of North- Anatolian Fault between the meridians of 35-40º, where is already prepared catastrophic earthquake from Ms=7.9. Probability of earthquake high P=80% (Pw=94%, Pk= 85%).	P_K=95% P_W=98% Р=94% P_K=85% P_W=94% Р=80%
	ARMENIA.Artsach,the adjacent regions of TURKEY, GEORGIA and AZERBAIJAN. 6.2≤Мs<6.6
	Earthquakes with Ms≥6.2 is not yet expected, since there was a deficit of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes, but the situation is very unstable. The trajectory is the attractor, but below the zone of instability. The probability of an earthquake on entropy is high, and the cumulative energy is small. Prior to the middle of 2011 are expected to activate a moderate earthquake with 5.0<M<5.6. The making more active of such indicator-earthquakes can initiate earthquakes with M=6.3 in southern Georgia. Unstable situation will be near Rustavi (Georgia).	P_K=3% P_W=32% Р=1%
	EASTERN CAUCASUS. Ingushetia,Chechnya,Dagestan,Osetia,easth GEORGIA,north AZERBAIJAN. Мs≥5.8
	А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.2. Earthquakes with Ms≥6.2 is not expected. Trajectory is located in the attractor. Are potentially dangerous (M6.3) in the coastal to Azerbaijan and Dagestan regions in Caspian Sea. The probability of earthquake here with a depth of source 40 km sufficiently high, but is located the scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. If does not occur the essential making more active of earthquake- indicators the earthquake will be here prepared toward the end 2016, otherwise danger to move into other regions of system. В. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Мs<6.2. Trajectory is located in the attractor. Toward the end this year will be dangerous in the coastal zone of Daghestan or in the Caspian area north of Apsheron peninsula (Azerbaijan). In one of these zones can be prepared the earthquake from Ms=6.1-6.2. If earthquake occurs in the first zone that will dangerously be in Derbent area and north from it. If earthquake does not occur in the first zone, then the probability of earthquake in the second zone will grow in the course of time and then by March 2011 earthquake from Ms=6.2 with a depth of 35 km can occur in the Caspian area coastal to Azerbaijan. Such earthquake will not present large danger for populating the coastal zones of Azerbaijan. The probability of earthquake in the system high and is equal to P=73% (Pk=85.00%, Pw=86%). After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010, the probability of earthquake increased by 2%.	P_K=37% P_W=42% Р=16% P_K=85% P_W=86% Р=73%
	Central CASPIAN SEA Мs≥6.2
	Earthquakes with Мs≥6.2 is not expected. The probability of earthquake on entropy is high, and on cumulative energy is zero. There is a scarcity of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators. Are expected earthquakes from M=5.0-5.3 the not represented dangers. It is seismically quiet on the Apsheron peninsula (Azerbaijan). To the inhabitants of Baku and other populated areas of Apsheron peninsula strong earthquake from Мs≥6.2 does not threaten.	P_K=0% P_W=27% Р=0%
	KRASNODAR KRAY (RF)-CRIMEA (UKR), Abkhaziya, western GEORGIA Мs≥5.5
	Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥5.5. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010, the threshold magnitudes of the forecasted earthquakes in this system is reduced from 6.0 to 5.5. Earthquakes with Мs≥5.5 is not expected. Inhabitants and vacationers of the Crimea within the next few years can be calm - the seismic danger in them does not threaten. In the Black Sea area (Krasnodar Kray, Abkhaziya, the northwest of Georgia) and at the health resorts of Kislovodsk, Pyatigorsk, Essentuki seismic situation is favorable, until strong earthquake from Ms≥5.5 them threatens. The observed activation of weak seismicity in the coastal area of the Black Sea (Tuapse) with M<4.5 due to start on a new seismic cycle and now not dangerous for public. The system was discharged after earthquake in NW Georgia, 07.09.2009, M = 6.1. Let us recall that the weaker earthquakes from М<5.5, which are also sensitive and can cause local destruction is not thus far forecast.	P_K=0% P_W=0% Р=0%
	TURMENISTAN West Мs≥6.2
	Earthquakes with Ms≥6.2 is not expected. Seismic situation is safe but unstable. There is a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. Are expected earthquakes from M=5.0-5.2 the not represented dangers. Potentially dangerous zone NE from Turkmenbashi to the end 2013 (M6.2). Residents of the cities of Turkmenbashi, Nebitdag, Gumdag of Turkmenistan and others in the area controlled by a strong earthquake with Ms≥6.2 is not threatened. The capital of Ashgabad is controlled in SS Iran NE (see below).	P_K=6% P_W=9% Р=0.5%
	IRAN North-West Мs≥5.8
	А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.2. Earthquakes with Мs≥6.2 is not expected. Seismic situation is safe, but is unstable. There is a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010, occurred only static increase in the entropy, probability on the entropy grew by 2%. В. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Мs<6.2. Track is located in the attractor. The probability of earthquake is high, but situation thus far steady. Potentially dangerously by 2012 in the near-boundary with Iraq zone in the West of province Kurdistan (M5.8) and in the south of the province of Zanjan (M5.9).	P_K=0% P_W=13% Р=0% P_K=55% P_W=66% Р=37%
	IRAN North-East, Turkmenistan South, Мs≥5.8
	А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.2. In the bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 it was forecast, that "Seismic situation is safe but unstable. The unspecific development of track is observed. There is an essential scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. It will potentially dangerously be in the province of Mazandaran (M6.4) by 2012, if thus far occur earthquake-indicators from M=5.3-5.8. If this making more active it does not occur, then by 2012 dangerously it can be near Teheran". As it was forecast, on August 27, 2010 in the system occurred untypical earthquake-indicator from M=5.5 in the province of Semnan. Untypical because it occurred in the relatively seismically calm region on the southern boundary of system. This earthquake raised track, but not so that to change the forecasts, the danger in the capital Teheran still remains. If making more actives subsequently will not be, then to the middle of 2012 it will dangerously be in the region of Teheran, M=6.4. The inhabitants of the capital of Turkmenistan Ashgabad strong earthquake from Мs≥6.2 does not threaten. В. Forecast earthquakes withс 5.8≤Мs<6.2. In the bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 it was noted that the unspecific development of track is observed. There is an essential scarcity of earthquake-indicators energy. It will be within the next few years observed either the making more active of earthquake-indicators from M=5.3-5.6, the not represented dangers, or will occur atipical* earthquake from M=5.8. As was forecast on August 27, 2010 in the system it occurred atypical earthquake from Ms=5.5, which did not cause damage. The spread of the magnitudes of this earthquake was from 5.5 to 5.8, we added it to the earthquake-indicators. After this, earthquake the probability of earthquake from 5.8≤Мs<6.2 sharply grew from 0.5% to P=11% (Pk=22%, Pw=48%). To the middle of 2011 there will be dangerous in the east to province Teheran, also, in the province of Mazandaran, there can be prepared earthquake from M=6.0 *Atypical earthquake - this is earthquake on fault in SS, which did not appear itself by strong earthquake in the time of the description of system.	P_K=6% P_W=10% Р=0.6% P_K=22% P_W=48% Р=11%
	IRAN West, South. U.A.Emirates Мs≥6.0
	А. The West and South of Iran, U.A.Emirates. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.6. Occurs the preparation of strong earthquake from Ms=6.7-6.8 in the south of Iran. Track is located in the attractor. It is dangerous in the south of Iran in the province of Hormozgan and in the border zone of the province of Fars. There is expected strong earthquake from M=6.7-6.8, expected the maximum seismic intensity IX balls. The closing date of the realization of this earthquake March-April 2012. After the publication of Bulletin 002 probability of this earthquake grew by 4% (on the entropy and on the cumulative energy it grew by 5%).To inhabitants and to tourists Dubai and Abu Dhabi there is no seismic threat from the strong earthquakes. В. West of Iran. Forecast earthquakes with 6.2≤Мs<6.6. Track is located in the attractor, but there is a scarcity of earthquake-indicators energy. For the next years it will potentially dangerously be in the province of Fars, in the zone of that located by 100-120 km western, or north-western from c. Shiraz, M6.2. When seismic activity the probability of such an earthquake will increase. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 the probability of earthquake grew by 6% (on the entropy by 10%). С. Юг Ирана. ОАЭ. Forecast earthquakes with 6.0≤Мs<6.6. Earthquake with the magnitude of 6.0≤Мs<6.6 in the south of Iran (province of Hormozgan) and in the United Arab Emirates is not expected. Here occurs the preparation strong of the earthquake from M=6.7 described above. To inhabitants and to tourists Dubai and Abu Dhabi there is no seismic threat.	P_K=70% P_W=14% Р=10% P_K=65% P_W=52% Р=33% P_K=8% P_W=0.04% Р=0%
	IRAN Central,East,South-East Мs≥5.7
	А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.7. Track is located in the attractor. There is a scarcity of earthquake-indicators energy. Situation unstable, goes the preparation of earthquake from M=7.2-7.4. If seismic activity is dangerous to be a central part of Khorasan province, 50 km north of Birjant. Dangerous situation here will continue until 2015, then the danger is gradually moved to the east province of Khorasan. If seismic activity will not be, until the end of 2014 will occur atipical strong earthquake with M=7.2 is likely in the northern, north-western province of Khorasan. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 the probability of earthquake grew by 4% (on the entropy to 2% and on the cumulative energy it grew by 3%). Earthquakes of the moderate force with 5.7<M<6.7 also present large danger to the population, but for this system we do not yet forecast, except central Iran (provinces of Kerman and Yazd). В. Central Iran, provinces of Kerman and Yazd. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.2. Trajectory is located in the attractor, but situation now steady. It is potentially dangerous in the province of Kerman, in the region in the east from c.Kerman, on the Golbaf Sirch Fault. In the course of time, during the making more active of earthquake-indicators, here can be prepared strong earthquake from M=6.9. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 the probability of earthquake grew by 1% (on the entropy and on the cumulative energy it grew by 2%). С. Central Iran, provinces of Kerman and Yazd. Forecast earthquakes with 5.7≤Мs<6.2. Proceeds the preparation of earthquake from Ms=5.7 on the Golbaf Sirch Fault eastern of Kerman. This earthquake can occur during the 6 monts, if in the system will be observed seismic calm. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 the probability of earthquake grew by 5% (on the entropy to 4% and on the cumulative energy it grew by 5%).	P_K=69% P_W=79% Р=55% P_K=27% P_W=38% Р=10% P_K=60% P_W=81% Р=48%
	SACHALIN, Russia Мs≥5.6.
	А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.4. Earthquakes from Мs≥6.4 are not expected. In Sakhalin will within the next few years be seismic calm, in system can occur only the earthquakes from M<5.6. The probability of strong earthquake in Sakhalin on entropy is low, and on cumulative energy - high. There is a surplus of the isolated seismic energy of earthquake-indicators and a scarcity of entropy. This means that the preparation of strong earthquake occurs, but it yet did not mature on the time. Next strong earthquake in Sakhalin is excluded until 2018. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 the probability of earthquake grew by 5% (on the entropy to 5% and on the cumulative energy it grew by 4%). It is potentially dangerous on the north of Sakhalin. В. North of Sachalin. Forecast earthquakes with 5.6≤Ms<6.4. After earthquake on March 16, 2010, M=5.5, seismic situation on the north of Sakhalin deteriorated, the probability of the moderate earthquake from 5.6≤Ms<6.4 jumped and it is now equal to P=2.5% (Pw=14%, Pk=18%). For the preparation of the earthquake of the moderate force from M=5.6-5.8 the stored energy of earthquake-indicators is sufficient; however, there is a certain scarcity of entropy. This means that on the north of Sakhalin soon (December 2010 - February 2011) can be prepared the earthquake of the moderate force from M=5.6-5.8. Earthquake is expected in the zone settlement Venscoe, Goryachie Kluchi, Dagi, are close - Evay and Nogliki (Nogliksky region) and Chayvo bay. С. Center and South of Sachalin. Forecast earthquakes with 5.6≤Ms<6.4. Situation not dangerous, earthquakes from 5.6≤M<6.4 in the center and in the south of Sakhalin are not expected. The probability of such earthquakes is equal to zero.	P_K=82% P_W=48% Р=39% P_K=18% P_W=14% Р=2.5% P_K=0% P_W=0% Р=0%
	KORYAK, Russia Мs≥7.5
	Earthquakes from Ms≥7.5 are not expected at least until 2018. After the publication of the Bulletin of 002 substantial changes did not occur. SS Koryak it relates to the systems, where in the historical past strong earthquake was not observed or there was not a information about them. In such cases for the analysis of the zones of instability on the energy and track diagrams we draw information about zones of the instability of close ones in the threshold magnitude and tectonics of seismic systems from other regions (it is utilized the property of self-similarity SS). In particular, for Koryak we used information from the seismic systems of Turkmenistan and South California. We thus far here have a realization only of one strong earthquake - Koryak, 20.04.2006, M7.8.	P_K=0% P_W=2% Р=0%
	KAMCHATKA-North KURILES, Russia Мs≥6.9
	А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. Earthquakes with Мs≥7.8 are not expected. In the bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 we forecast "Trajectory is located under the attractor (zone of instability). There is a scarcity of the isolated energy of earthquake-indicators. Trajectory has a tendency to rise, this it indicates that within the next few years they are expected earthquake-indicators from 5.5<M<6.9. Trajectory is developed on the scenario of close one to the preparation of earthquakes 1971 and 1997". In accordance with our forecast on July 30, 2010 in the system it occurred earthquake-indicator from M=6.4, which somewhat raised track. The probability of strong earthquake it increased by 1% (on the entropy to 2%, on the cumulative energy to 2%). Trajectory continues to be developed on the same scenario. В. North of Kamchatka. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.9. The earthquakes of the moderate force from 6.9<M<7.5 are expected. The unspecific development of track is observed, there is an essential scarcity of the isolated energy of earthquake-indicators. At the junction of Kamchatka arc and Aleutian trench the situation is unstable. If a significant seismic activity will not be, then soon (to end 2010) here can occur untypical earthquake from M6.9, otherwise it will occur the intensive activation of earthquake-indicators from 6.4<М<6.9. Most dangerously it is Kamchatka on the west-southwest of Ust' Kamchatsk. Potentially dangerous can be the zones north of Ust' Kamchatka, also, in Pacific Ocean 200 km eastern of Kamchatka. The north latitude of 58˚ earthquakes from М>6.9 are not expected. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 the probability of earthquake grew by 7% (on the entropy to 1% and on the cumulative energy it grew by 7%). С. South of Kamchatka. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.9. Track continues it is developed on the scenario close to preparation of earthquake 1946 on the southeast of Kamchatka, there is a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. As it was forecast in Bulletin 002: "Expected to activate earthquake-indicators. Potentially dangerously in the coastal zone, situated south of Petropavlovsk Kamchatkiy on 100 km. Within the next few years here can be prepared earthquake from M6.9", south east of Petropavlovsk Kamchatkiy on 100 km in the ocean on July 30, 2010 occurred earthquake-indicator from M=6.4. Within the next few years here can be prepared earthquake from M6.9-7.2. It is potentially dangerous in the south of system in northern Kuril. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 the probability of earthquake grew by 5% (on the entropy to 1% and on the cumulative energy it grew by 5%).	P_K=19% P_W=15% Р=3% Север P_K=74% P_W=87% Р=64% Юг P_K=65% P_W=72% Р=47%
	The central KURILES, Russia Мs≥6.9
	А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. Earthquakes with Мs≥7.8 are not expected. The probability of strong earthquake 0.2% (17%, 1%). В. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.3. Earthquakes with Мs≥7.3 are not expected but track approaches to attractor. At beginning 2011 in the system it can be dangerously. The probability of strong earthquake begins to grow P=0.3% (Pk=5%, Pw=5%). С. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.9. Earthquakes with Мs≥6.9 are not expected. The probability of strong earthquake begins to grow Р=0.05% (Рk=3%, Рw=2%). Strong earthquakes in central Kuriles do not bear danger for the inhabitants, since the nearest island Simushir is uninhabited. But they can form the waves of tsunami in Pacific Ocean.	P_K=17% P_W=1% Р=0.2% P_K=5% P_W=5% Р=0.3% P_K=3% P_W=2% Р=0.05%
	Southern KURILES (Russia) - HOKKAIDO (Japan) Мs≥7.8
	Earthquakes with Мs≥7.8 is not expected. The trajectory is the attractor, but there is a shortage of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes. Track continues to be developed on the scenario of the close to the preparation of Tokachi Oki earthquake on September 25, 2003 (see Communication dated June 5, 2009). In the coming years will be an earthquake of 6.0<M<7.0. Potential hazards of the zone in the south-east of Hokkaido and east of Iturup. Here can be prepared strong earthquake from M=8.2-8.3 toward the end 2011 by the depth 45 km. So that the track would fall into the zone of instability the scarcity of energy it was equal to energy of earthquake from M=7.0 Recall that the earthquake with 5.5<M<7.8 in the system are not controlled. Residents of Hokkaido and the South Kurile islands can be calm, while the risk of strong earthquakes with Ms≥7.4, which can cause noticeable damage and destruction, they are not threatened.	P_K=14% P_W=30% Р=4%
	JAPAN, Islands of Honshu, Shikoku, Kyushu Мs≥7.8
	Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. Track now is developed, in accordance with the forecast in Bulletin 002, by the scenario of the earthquake Tokachi Oki (M8.3) and will reach the unstable region of this earthquake by January-February 2011. So that the track would fall into the zone of the instability of this earthquake it was sufficient energy of one earthquake with magnitude 6.4-6.5, which will complete the scarcity of cumulative energy. Thus, at the beginning of 2011 on the southeast of Hokkaido can be prepared earthquake from M=8.3. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 the probability of earthquake grew by 3% (on the entropy to 3% and on the cumulative energy it grew by 1%).	P_K=71% P_W=74% Р=53%
	JAPAN, Central Honshu, Tokyo District Мs≥6.4
	А. Forecast earthquakes with 7.1≤Ms<7.8. Track has the high values of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators with the relatively low values of entropy. Until 2017 in the system strong earthquake from 7.1≤Ms<7.8 is not expected, will be observed relative seismic calm. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 the probability of earthquake grew by 2% (on the entropy by 2%). In spite of the high values of probability, situation in Tokyo region is steady. В. West coast of Central Honshu. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Мs<7.1. In the West of central Honshu, on the coast of Sea Japan the earthquakes from M>5.8 are not expected. Their probability is equal to zero. С. East coast of central Honshu, Greater Tokyo area. Forecast earthquakes with 6.4≤Мs<7.1. In the subsystem it is now safe, trajectory approaches an attractor. The probability of strong earthquake begins to increase. In this subsystem was predicted the earthquake dated August 10, 2009 of M=6.6 on the South coast of Honshu.	P_K=68% P_W=61% Р=42% P_K=0% P_W=0% Р=0% P_K=2% P_W=4% Р=0.1%
	JAPAN, North Honshu (from Pref. Ibaraki to Hokkaido) 6.6≤Мs<7.8
	А. Forecast earthquakes with 7.4≤Ms<7.8. At the beginning 2012 will be dangerous on the northeast of Honshu M=7.4, east of pref. Miyako, pref. Iwate 60 km in the ocean,.if thus far in the system does not occur strong earthquake from М>7.8. The probability of earthquake is high. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 the probability of earthquake grew by 4% (on the entropy to 3% and on the cumulative energy it grew by 2%). В. North of Honshu (from North of pref. Miyagi to Hokkaido). Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Ms<7.4. The moderate earthquakes are not expected, occurs the preparation of catastrophic earthquake southeast from Hokkaido from M=8.3. High probability is connected with the preparation of this earthquake. At the beginning of 2011 the track will fall into the zone of the instability of the Tokachi Oki earthquake С. North of Honshu (from pref. Ibaraki to Miyagi). Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.4. In this subsystem on March 14, 2010 it occurred earthquake-indicator, which somewhat changed the forecasts (see Communication dated March 15, 2010). There we forecast, which in the local zone SE from Sendai, east of pref. Fukushima in the course of 2-3 months (to the end of May) can occur earthquake with magnitude 6.7. On June 13, 2010 there occurred earthquake but from M=6.0. After this activation track retains a high value of the cumulative energy and high rate of growth of entropy. Unless there is activation of earthquake-indicators, by the beginning of 2011 can be prepared earthquake with M=6.6. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 the probability of earthquake grew by 7% (on the cumulative energy by 52%, on the entropy by 8%). In the West of North Honshu, on the coast of Sea of Japan of earthquake from M>6.8 they are not expected.	P_K=84% P_W=75% Р=63% P_K=87% P_W=85% Р=75% P_K=65% P_W=11% Р=7%
	JAPAN, South-West of Honshu, Shikoku, Kyushu Мs≥6.7
	А. Forecast earthquakes with 7.4≤Ms<7.8. The unspecific development of track is observed, there is a scarcity of the isolated energy of earthquake-indicators. Situation is unstable. If seismic activation will not, in the next few years will occur untypical earthquake from M7.4, either south of Honshu on 100 km in Pacific Ocean, or in the coastal zone in the east from Kyushu. В. South-West of Honshu, Shikoku. Forecast earthquakes with 6.9≤Ms<7.4. In the region of Nankai through, on the island land Fault Median Line, to stretched through the islands Shikoku to Osaka, the earthquakes like Kobe (1995) with 6.8<M<7.4 are not expected. The probability of such earthquakes is equal to zero. On the coast of Sea of Japan strong earthquakes are not expected. С. Kyushu. Forecast earthquakes with 6.7≤Ms<7.4. The situation has not changes. Here, not far from the coast in the east from Kyushu occurs preparation earthquake from M6.8. If seismic activation soon it will not be, then this earthquake will occur prior to the middle of 2011. Probability of strong earthquake high 59%. Since the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 the probability grew by 1% (on the entropy by 2%).	P_K=14% P_W=36% Р=5% P_K=0.3% P_W=0.6% Р=0% P_K=69% P_W=86% Р=59%
	TAIWAN, South-West of Ryukyu Is.,Japan Мs≥7.7
	Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.7. Situation in the system is not thus far dangerous. Trajectory is located in the attractor. Because of the essential seismic activation in 2010 the danger of strong earthquake moves aside for two years. Now strong earthquake from Ms>7.7 is excluded in the system prior to the end of 2012. If noticeable seismic activity in the system will not, then by the end 2012 will be dangerous to the east of Taiwan, in the coastal zone near c.Hualien. Here can be prepared strong earthquake with the magnitude Ms=7.9 and depth 33 km. Since the beginning of 2010 the probability of strong earthquake in the system grew by 3% (on the cumulative energy to 4%, on the entropy to 3%), but situation is stable. Southwest from Is. Ryukyu (Japan) strong earthquakes from H<80 km are not expected.	P_K=57% P_W=35% Р=20%
	TAIWAN, South-West of Ryukyu Is.,Japan Мs≥6.6
	А. Forecast earthquakes with 7.4≤Ms<7.7. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 in the system occurred two earthquakes, on March 4, M=6.4 and on April 26, M=6.5. Because of this seismic activity the trajectory went around the regions of the instability of earthquakes from M=7.4 east of Taiwan and it begins to approach an unstable region of earthquake on September 20, 1999, M=7.7 (Chi-Chi). If noticeable seismic activity will not be, then in the system, in central Taiwan, it is exact in year, by October 2011, can be prepared devastating earthquake from M=7.7. Since the beginning of 2010 the probability of strong earthquake in the system grew by 8% (on the cumulative energy by 8%, on the entropy by 4%). В. Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Ms<7.4. If noticeable seismic activity will not be, then in the system will be safely until 2012 to the subject of earthquake from 7.0≤Ms<7.4. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 the probability of earthquake grew by 11% (on the cumulative energy by 13%, on the entropy by 12%), but situation in the system became more stable. С. North of Taiwan. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. Track located in attractor. It is dangerous in the coastal zone on the northeast of Taiwan, soon here can be prepared earthquake from M=6.6. The probability of earthquake is high. D. South of Taiwan. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. In this subsystem on the southeast of Taiwan on March 4, 2010 occurred the earthquake from M=6.4, H=23 km. In the subsystem will be until 2012 safe.	P_K=77% P_W=61% Р=47% P_K=66% P_W=41% Р=27% P_K=66% P_W=81% Р=53% P_K=38% P_W=15% Р=6%
	BIRMA Microplate - Northern SUMATRA (INDONESIA),Andaman-Nikobar Islands (INDIA),THAILAND,MYANMAR, Мs≥7.8
	Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 in the system occurred two strong earthquakes (on March 30, M=6.6, on May 9, M=7.3), which were predicted in the subsystems (see below). Situation in the system not dangerous, trajectory is located in the attractor, there is a surplus of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators. Because of the seismic activity in 2010 dangerous period somewhat moves away. With the relative seismic calm, track to approach the hazardous zone at the middle 2014. Strong earthquake from Ms=8.5 can be prepared in 2014 in the region of the Andaman Islands, (Port of Blair, India). The probability of earthquake in the system since February grew by 8% (on the cumulative energy by 16%, on the entropy by 4%), but situation in the system became more stable. The inhabitants of the coastal countries of the north of Indian Ocean within the next few years catastrophic earthquake, like the Nicobar 2004, and also tsunami do not threaten; however, are possible not less dangerous moderate earthquakes from Ms<7.8.	P_K=57% P_W=40% Р=15%
	BIRMA Microplate - Northern SUMATRA (INDONESIA),Andaman-Nikobar Islands (INDIA),THAILAND,MYANMAR, Мs≥6.6
	А. Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Ms<7.8. In this system the earthquake in the northwest of Sumatra on May 9, 2010, M=7.3 was successfully predicted in Bulletin 002 and in the Communication dated April 2, 2010 (see Communication dated May 10, 2010). The situation somewhat was discharged after this strong earthquake and now earthquakes from 7.0≤Ms<7.8 and tsunami from them are not expected, P=0%. The inhabitants of the coastal countries of the north of the Indian Ocean of Myanmar, Thailand and Nicobar-Andaman Islands within the next few years strong earthquakes from 7.0≤Ms<7.8 and tsunami do not threaten. В. Subsystem South. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. Earthquakes from 6.6≤Ms<7.0 and tsunami from them are not expected, P=0%. Subsystem after earthquake on May 9, 2010 is discharged. The new cycle of the preparation of the moderate earthquakes begins. С. Subsystem North. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. In this subsystem earthquake on the north of Andaman Islands, India, dated March 30, 2010, M6.6, were successfully predicted (see Bulletin 002 and Communication dated April 2, 2010). Aafter this earthquake the subsystem somewhat was discharged, now the probability of earthquake from 6.6≤Ms<7.0 beginning grow from zero P=0.07%. D. Subsystem NORTH. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.3. On January 11, 1895 near Rangoon the capital of Myanmar, which is now live about 5 mln. people, occurred earthquake with M=7.5. in 1930.05.05 near Bago occurred strong earthquake with M=7.3. Our analysis shows that Subsystem North of Microplate Burma partially responsible for the preparation of strong earthquakes in the south of Myanmar, including Rangoon. Note that the Subsystem North of Microplate Burma poorly defined. One seismic cycle for the earthquake 1930 here reliably was completed. At present track substantially exceeded the unstable region of this earthquake and it has the high values of cumulative energy and entropy. The probability of earthquake with M≥7.3 high, and equal to Р=90% (P_W=95%, P_K=84%). Summarizing we can conclude that close to Rangoon possible strong earthquake with M=7.4-7.5 with great destruction and loss of life.	P_K=0% P_W=0% Р=0% P_K=0% P_W=0% Р=0% P_K=4% P_W=1.6% Р=0.07% P_K=84% P_W=95% Р=90%
	SUMATRA, Indonesia. Мs≥7.8
	Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. After the publication of Bulletin 002 dated February 28, 2010 in the system occurred the untypical seismic activation (see Communication dated April 20, 2010). Potential danger remains in the West from Sumatra, in the region of the Mentavay islands - Siberut, Sipura and coastal zones from Padanga, where occurs the preparation of strong earthquake from M8.5-8.4. The nearest danger will be here from November 2010 to January 2011, when track will cross the region of instability. Since the beginning of 2010 the probability of strong earthquake grew by 2% (on the entropy by 4%).	P_K=49% P_W=25% Р=12%
	SUMATRA, Indonesia. Мs≥7.3
	А. Subsystem North of Sumatra. Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. In the northern subsystem such earthquakes are not expected, but occurs the preparation the above-mentioned catastrophic earthquake or strong foreshock from M=8.1 in the region of the islands of Mentavay - Sipura, Pagay Utara. This means that in the next months the trigger of the expected catastrophe can be the earthquake from M=7.0. The probability of earthquake is sufficiently high Р=35%. B. Subsystem South of Sumatra. Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. Track has sufficiently high values of cumulative energy of earthquake- indicators. The southern part of Sumatra within the next few years will be until 2015 seismic in the safe state. However, are it should not be forgotten that possible not less dangerous moderate earthquakes from M6.6-7.2.	P_K=78% P_W=47% Р=35% P_K=51% P_W=15% Р=8%
	JAVA (Indonesia). Мs≥7.8
	Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. Situation in the system is not dangerous. There is a scarcity of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators. Strong earthquakes from Ms>7.8 within the next few years are not expected. Potentially dangerous can be the southwest of Java toward the end 2013. To inhabitants of island Java and Bali within the next few years catastrophic earthquake from Ms>7.8 and tsunami from the local earthquakes does not threaten.	P_K=7% P_W=1% Р=0.07%
	JAVA (Indonesia). Мs≥6.6
	Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.8. Earthquakes from 6.6<M<7.8 in the next 2 years are not expected. Situation in the system is not dangerous. Trajectory approaches an attractor. In the mainland part of Yava strong earthquake from Мs≥6.6 within the next few years is excluded, besides western extremity. To inhabitants of island Java and Bali in the next 2 years strong earthquake from Ms>6.6 and tsunami does not threaten.	P_K=27% P_W=7% Р=2%
	JAVA (Indonesia). Мs≥5.8
	А. Subsystem West of Java. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Ms<6.6. Subsystems according to the sizes are small, they control Java island in the East and the West and 100 km coastal part south of Java. As predicted in the Bulletin 002 in the subsystem the west Yava observed activation of earthquake-indicators with M5.0-5.6. The probability of earthquake substantially grew due to this, but earthquake from 5.8≤Ms<6.6 thus far is not expected. В. Subsystem East of Java. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Ms<6.6. In the east Java situation steady, there is no seismic danger until 2014. To the inhabitants of islands Java and Bali within the framework controlled region strong earthquake from 5.8≤Мs<6.6 (to the similarity of earthquake Yogyakarta 2006) does not threaten.	P_K=45% P_W=12% Р=6% P_K=2.6% P_W=0% Р=0%
	MOZAMBIQUE (Africa). Мs≥5.8
	А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.9. Situation in system is not dangerous. Strong earthquake from Мs≥6.9 within the next few years is excluded. The inhabitants of Mozambique within the next few years strong earthquake to the similarity of earthquake dated February 22, 2006, M7.2 does not threaten. В. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Мs<6.9. Thus far situation is not dangerous. In spite of small probability, the stored energy of earthquake- indicators is sufficient for the preparation by 2011 of earthquake from M=5.8.	P_K=7% P_W=2% Р=0.1% P_K=0.02% P_W=0% Р=0%
	MALAWI, Zambia,Tanzania,D.R.Congo, Burundi (Africa), Мs≥5.8 (monitoring is from February 1, 2010)
	А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.2. In spite of high probability situation in system is not dangerous. Track with the low values of entropy has the high value of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators. This means that strong earthquake from Ms>6.2 within the next few years are excluded. By 2017 potentially dangerously there can be in the east of D.R. Congo. В. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Мs<6.2. The earthquakes of the moderate force are not expected, their probability is equal to zero.	P_K=94% P_W=51% Р=46%
	PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN. Мs≥6.6
	Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥6.6. There are no changes. Situation in system is not dangerous. Strong earthquake from М≥6.6, H<90 km in Afghanistan and Pakistan is not expected. Retrospective. The last major earthquake occurred October 29, 2008 (deaths of 166 people). On the basis of seismic entropy, retrospectively analyzing the energy and track diagrams, was able to explain this event. A feature of this earthquake was that a source at intervals of 12 hours there were two earthquakes, the first - M6.4, the second - M6.6. Before these events, the probability of strong earthquake in the system amounted to P=3.75% (on entropy Р_W=10.30, and the cumulative energy P_K=36.38%). Before the first earthquake track was under the attractor and had a deficit of cumulative energy. Immediately after the first quake track fell into attractor and probability of earthquakes sharply it grew to P=5.27% (on entropy Р_W=10.30, and the cumulative energy P_K=51.13%). In fact, after the first quake was prepared by an earthquake with M=6.6, which happened after 12 hours. You can take it that the first earthquake was trigger for a second. Generally double sources are the specifics of the tectonic zones in Pakistan and their prediction is very important for practical forecasting and reduce casualties.	P_K=0% P_W=0% Р=0%
	TIBET. India,China,Nepal,Bhutan,Bangladesh. Мs≥7.5
	А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. This system includes Tibet within China, the Himalayas (north-east India, Nepal, Bhutan), north of Bangladesh. Situation in system is not dangerous. Track approaches an attractor. There is a scarcity of earthquake-indicators energy, soon is expected their activation then track can rise and enter into the attractor. The probability of strong earthquake is equal to zero. В. Forecast earthquakes with 7.5≤Ms<7.8. Track is located in the attractor. Situation in system prior to the middle of 2011 stable, then is expected the activation of earthquake-indicators from 6.0<M<7.0. The probability of strong earthquake on cumulative energy (40%) is higher than on entropy (16%). С. Subsystem West of Tibet. Forecast earthquakes with 7.5≤Ms<7.8. This subsystem contains the Himalayas and western Tibet. The probability of earthquake is increased by 41% (72%, 57%). Track will approach the zone of instability to middle 2012. Potentially dangerously there can be north of Bhutan in Tibet, near Lhasa (China), where can be prepared earthquake from M=7.6 D. Subsystem East of Tibet. Forecast earthquakes with 7.5≤Ms<7.8. Subsystem includes East Tibet. Track approaches an attractor. Probability of earthquake 0.2% (22%, 1%). In subsystem the next few years it is not dangerous. E. Subsystem North of Tibet. Forecast earthquakes with 7.5≤Ms<7.8. Probability of earthquake 0.3% (14%, 3%). Now in the subsystem it is not dangerous. When activated earthquake-indicators by 2014 potentially dangerously it can be on Kunlun Fault in the central are of Tibet. F. Subsystem South of Tibet, Himalayas. Forecast earthquakes with 7.5≤Ms<7.8. Probability of earthquake very high 84% (94%, 91%). Dangerously in the east Butane of M=7.7, it is potentially dangerous in west and east of Nepal, M=7.5. The retrospective forecast of last devastating earthquake in this system dated May 12, 2008 in China, Sychuan you can view in Bulletin 001.	P_K=0.08% P_W=0.4% Р=0% P_K=40% P_W=16% Р=6% P_K=72% P_W=57% Р=41% P_K=22% P_W=1% Р=0.2% P_K=14% P_W=3% Р=0.3% P_K=94% P_W=91% Р=84%
	MYANMAR. China (South),India(East),Bangladesh. Мs≥7.0
	Region on the northeast Bay of Bengal (the bounding area of Myanmar with India, China and Bangladesh) we investigated in detail, since the seismologists count this region potentially dangerous for giant tsunamigenic earthquakes. Such earthquake and tsunami in the coastal zone of Myanmar to the scales of possible human victims and material losses can exceed Nicobar earthquake dated December 26, 2004. Here we have revealed two seismic systems Western (coastal area, Arakan) and Eastern Myanmar (Shan plateau), demarcated by fault of Sagaing, is refined the boundary of Burma micro-plate in the south. А. SS Myanmar. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. SS Myanmar and subsystem relate to badly determined according to our classification; therefore the quality of forecast here poor. To forecast the waiting time of earthquake is impossible. Track started since 1946 and has the very high values of entropy and the relative scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. It is potentially dangerous on the north of Fault Sagaing, there can be prepared strong earthquake from M=7.8. Probability of strong earthquake 70% (84%, 84%). В. Subsystem Western Myanmar. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. We can make only comparative analysis of real situation in this system with other similar SS, using a property of self-similarity. Analysis shows that the track of the preparation of strong earthquake is developed with the relatively low values of cumulative energy. Track is not similar to preparation of the classical earthquakes of subduction zones. Track is similar to the preparation of southern California Kern Caunty earthquake 1952.07.21, M7.7 (White Wolf fault zone, reverse faulting, with a left-lateral component). So that above-mentioned tsunamigenic mega-earthquake thus far are excluded. In SS Western Myanmar it is already prepared strong earthquake from M=7.8 but to estimate time is impossible. The probability of earthquake is very high (Pk=97%, Pw=94% P=91%). It is dangerous in continental part of Arakan of the subduction zone Burma, in area of the north–south trending zone of Kaladan and Kabaw Faults. In the source of future earthquake the predominance of vertical displacement to the horizontal in relationship 60% to 40% is expected. Mechanism of the expected earthquake - reverse faulting, with a right-lateral component. In the hazardous zone of the forecasted earthquake falls near-boundary regions Bangladesh (Chittagong), India (Mizoram), Myanmar (Arakan) (Lat 21-23 deg N). According to our estimations the break must not reach the coastal zone therefore Tsunami is excluded. С. Subsystem Western Myanmar. Forecast earthquakes with 7.5≤Ms<7.8. Track is located in the attractor. It is potentially dangerous in the coastal zone of Burma in area of Ramree island and in the North of Sagaing Fault. Probability of earthquake high 56% (73%, 77%). D. Subsystem Eastern Myanmar (Shan plateau, including Yunnan Province, China). Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.5. Track is located out of the attractor, but it has sufficiently high values of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators. Strong earthquake into province of Yunnan, China, can be prepared by 2016, M7.5. The probability of strong earthquake is now equal to zero. Е. Subsystem Eastern Myanmar. Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Ms<7.5. On the Border Myanmar and the state of Yunnan, (China, in the region of Luxi, Mengdingjie) occurs the preparation of earthquake from M>7.0. Probability of earthquake 61% (Рk=85%, Pw=72%). If earthquake occurs within the next few years its magnitude will be equal to 7.3. After 2015 the magnitude of the expected earthquake will grow to 7.5, and source will migrate to the east, to the area of the source of the devastating earthquake of 1970, Tonghai (Yunnan Province, China).	P_K=84% P_W=84% Р=70% P_K=97% P_W=94% Р=91% P_K=73% P_W=77% Р=56% P_K=12% P_W=0% Р=0% P_K=85% P_W=72% Р=61%
	CHINA (North-East). Мs≥6.6
	SS North-Eastern China. Seismoactive region on the northeast of China includes the capital Beijing and the industrial tightly populated provinces. This region is known to seismologists by the fact that here on February 4, 1975 occurred the destructive Haicheng earthquake M=7.3, which was successfully predicted by the Chinese seismologists (2041 dead, but they were rescued hundreds of thousands of lives). But on July 28, 1976 here occurred the catastrophic Tangshan earthquake M=7.8, which on the losses and the human victims is considered as the most devastating in the last 400 years (according to the different estimations it perished from 240000 to 600000 people). Revealed here SS northeastern China relates to badly determined according to our classification. For the analysis of seismic situation we carried out the comparative analysis of real situation in this system with other similar SS, using a property of self-similarity. A. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. At present earthquakes from Ms≥7.8 are not expected. Situation did not change, in the system calm, only static increase in the entropy is observed. The probability of earthquake on the entropy is higher than on the cumulative energy (Pk=15%, Pw=30%, P=4.5%). Trajectory has a deficit of cumulative energy is therefore expected to activate or earthquake-indicators or atypical earthquake with M=7.8. Studies this system showed that historical earthquakes 1966 (M=7.0), 1969 (M=7.3) and 1975 (M=7.3) on NE of China for 10 years substantially raised the track of the preparation of strong earthquake from M=7.8, which with the great significance of entropy had a scarcity of cumulative energy. The Haicheng earthquake of 1975 was the latter in this series and therefore it is the trigger of the Tangshan earthquake of 1976. В. Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. Here also situation did not change, in the system calm, only static increase in the entropy is observed. Track as before has a scarcity of cumulative energy; therefore is expected or activation of earthquake-indicators or untypical earthquake from M=7.3. Probability of earthquake high P=56% (Pk=70%, Pw=80%). С. Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Ms<7.3. At present on NE of China continues the preparation of the earthquake M=7.0. Since February 2010 there did not occurred the expected activation of earthquake-indicators, so the situation has not changed. In the system are expected the indicator-earthquakes with magnitudes 5.8-6.0 (let us recall that such earthquakes in densely populated China lead to the destruction and the human victims). Is most dangerous the West and the South of the province Hebei, the bounding area of the provinces Shandong and Henan, the coastal area of the province Jiangsu. After such indicator-earthquakes in system can be prepared strong earthquake with the magnitude M=7.0. Dangerous is potentially the region, situated W-SW from the Bohai sea (south of the province Hebei and the bounding area of the provinces Shandong and Henan). Probability P=74% (Pk=84%, Pw=87%). D. Subsystem East, coastal area. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. There is a scarcity of earthquake-indicators. In the subsystem of seismic calm, the track develops due to the static growth of entropy. Potentially dangerous in the area from Haicheng to Dandong, M=6.8. Probability of earthquake high P=57% (Pk=70%, Pw=82%). Situation will be resolved until mid - 2012. Е. Subsystem West, including Greater Beijing. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. There is a scarcity of earthquake-indicators. In the subsystem seismic calm, track are developed due to a static increase in the entropy. Occurs the preparation of earthquake from M=7.0. It is potentially dangerous in Greater Beijing area and in Gulf Bohayvan. Probability high P=41% (Pk=59%, Pw=71%). Situation will be resolved prior to the end of 2011. It follows from the forecasts given above that as a whole on the northeast of China in the next two years will occur the earthquake from M>6.6.	P_K=15% P_W=30% Р=4.5% P_K=70% P_W=80% Р=56% P_K=84% P_W=87% Р=74% P_K=70% P_W=82% Р=57% P_K=59% P_W=71% Р=41%
	EGYPT-ISRAEL, Jordan,Lebanon,Syria,Saudi Arabia ). Мs≥6.6
	SS Egypt-Israel. Revealed here SS Egypt-Israel includes Sinai peninsula and transform-fault zone (Agaba-Levant faults), which is stretched from the Red Sea in the south to Syria on the north. It includes the seismoactive territories of Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Saudi Arabia. The revealed here seismic system and subsystems, which respons to the strong earthquakes it relates to badly determined according to our classification. For their analysis we used the property of self-similarity. Are here known historical strong earthquakes (May 1202 and November 1759, M=7.5). A. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.3. At present earthquakes from Ms≥7.3 are not expected. The probability of strong earthquake is sufficiently high (Pk=87%, Pw=88% P=77%) but time to predict difficultly. Strong earthquake from Ms≥7.3 can be prepared by 2016 on the Levant fault. This period can approach taking into account possible passages in the catalog of historical earthquakes. В. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.3. At present earthquakes from Ms≥6.6 are not expected, but occurs the preparation of earthquake from M=6.8. Probability of this earthquake now small P=0.7% (Pk=9%, Pw=6%). In the end of 2011 can be prepared strong earthquake with M=6.8-7.0 most likely in the south Sinai in the Red Sea. Thus far are expected the indicator-earthquakes with M=5.0-5.3.	P_K=87% P_W=88% Р=77% P_K=9% P_W=6% Р=0.7%
	Central USA,Illinois,Missouri,Arkansas,Tennessee,Kentucky,Indiana. Мs≥5.1
	SS New Madrid. This SS includes seismic zones New Madrid and Wabash Valley, located in the border zone of the states Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Indiana (central area of USA). This anomalous intraplate seismoactive zone is known by the fact that in 1811 (on December 16, M7.3, M7.0) and 1812 (on January 23, M7.1 on February 7, M7.4) here occurred the flash of the cascade of devastating earthquakes. It is important to note that these events, which occurred in 2 monthly intervals closely each other, are interconnected, but they are the separate earthquakes, timed to the different branches of faults. At the beginning operated southwestern branch, then northeastern with the mechanisms of right strike-slip. These events as a result led to the thrust in the central segment, which is stretched transversely to first two. Nature of this seismic activity explains by the fact that here the earth's crust hides relict rift zone (Reelfoot of rift), which weakens the earth's crust and periodically it leads to accumulation and discharging of stresses. Now this zone is manifested in essence by the weak seismicity of М<4.0 but periodically proceed the moderate earthquakes with the magnitudes from 5 to 6, which present danger. It interests together with the forecast of these moderate earthquakes, seismologists, when here occurs strong earthquake from M>7.0 will be able it will be repeated the pattern of almost 200 summer remotenesses. Let us try to answer these questions on the basis of the method of seismic entropy. A. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.0. At present earthquakes with Мs≥7.0 are not expected. Revealed SS New Madrid and its subsystems make it possible to restore and to describe the possible scenario of the cascade of devastating earthquakes 1811-1812 yrs. and to extrapolate them to the future. In contrast to other SS here (in intraplate SS) seismic processes weak and proceed considerably slower. As a result the process of the preparation of catastrophic earthquakes is extended by several centuries. On the language of the method of seismic entropy in the northern and southern subsystems of this system for a period of several centuries simultaneously occurred the preparation of two earthquakes from M=7.0-7.3. Track thus far with the high values of entropy had substantial low value of cumulative energy what is the consequence of the absence of earthquakes with 6.0<M<7.0. Three strong earthquakes 1811 and 1812 yrs. in two months substantially raised the track of the preparation of catastrophic earthquake in SS New Madrid, after completing the scarcity of cumulative energy they led on February 7, 1812 to the earthquake from M=7.4. At present the value of cumulative energy in the system it is equal to 14.0, and entropy - 16.8. With the present growth rate in the entropy only by 2060 the entropy will exceed value of 18, after which are possible the earthquakes with М>7.0. Because of the absence of earthquakes from M6.0-7.0, evidently the scenario of the cascade of earthquakes will be repeated after 2060, can change only time interval in 2 months. В. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥5.1 (Mb≥5.4). At present before 2036 earthquakes with Мs≥5.1 are not expected. The probability of this earthquake is now on the northeast of system equal to P=0%, and for southwest P=0.3% (the border zone of Missouri-Arkansas-Tennessee). By 2036 there can be prepared moderate earthquake with Mb=5.7.
	VRANCEA, ROMANIA. Мs≥5.8
	SS Vrancea. This miniature SS has the sizes of 40x80 km and a depth of 180 km it is included the deep-focus (70-180 km) seismoactive zone of Vrancea in Rumania, where periodically occur strong earthquakes (on November 10, 1940, M7.7; on March 4, 1977, M7.4; on August 30, 1986, M7.1; on May 30, 1990, M6.9). These earthquakes are dangerous by the fact that can cause destruction and the victims not only in Romania, but also in the extensive territory of the countries of South-Eastern Europe. The seismic intensity from such deep-focus earthquake in Moscow can reach 5-6 balls. Taking into account the increased interest in this zone, we estimated times and magnitudes of the expected strong earthquakes on the basis of the method of seismic entropy. A. Forecast earthquakes with М≥7.3. In the system occurs the preparation of catastrophic earthquake from M=7.4, on the scenario of close one to the earthquake of 1977. Track has the sufficiently high of the value of cumulative energy, but a scarcity of entropy. This means that for the generation of catastrophic earthquake today the zone of Vrancea on the time yet did not mature. At present the earthquake from M≥7.3 is not expected for this reason. With the present growth rate in the entropy the devastating earthquake with the magnitude of M=7.4 can be prepared toward the end 2014 at the depths of 80-100 km. The probability of this earthquake now P=0.6% (Pk=14%, Pw=4%), by 2015 it will grow to P=1.7% (Pk=14%, Pw=13%). В. Forecast earthquakes with 6.3≤Ms<7.3. At present earthquakes from 6.3<М<7.3 are not expected. The probability of earthquake with 6.3<М<7.3 now P=12% (Pk=26%, Pw=48%). Probability of the generation of strong earthquake for the depths of 80-100 km high P=11% (Pk=26%, Pw=43%), and for the depths of 100-150 km low P=1% (Pk=7%, Pw=13%). At these depths, by 2012 can be prepared the earthquake from M=6.4. С. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Ms<6.3. The probability of earthquake from 5.8<M<6.3 now high P=20% (Pk=29%, Pw=70%), but track has a scarcity of earthquake-indicators. Since February 2010 occurred only static an increase in the entropy, which gradually put track into the unsteady state. If then it will continue, then in the course of year can occur earthquake from M=5.9-6.0 or by 2012 earthquake from M=6.4.	P_K=14% P_W=4% Р=0.6% P_K=26% P_W=48% Р=12% P_K=29% P_W=70% Р=20%
	HAITI, Dom.Rep.,Cuba(S),Jamaika(E). Мs≥7.0 (monitoring is from February 1, 2010)
	Forecast earthquakes with М≥7.0. The latter of catastrophic earthquake dated Jan 12, 2010, M7.2, Port au Prince, took away the life of more than 250 thous. pep. The retrospective forecast of this earthquake see Communication dated Jan 31, 2010. Currently in this system the earthquake with M≥7.0 are not expected.	P_K=0% P_W=0.05% Р=0%
	CHILE, Argentina, Bolivia. Мs≥7.8 (monitoring is from March 25, 2010)
	Mega SS CHILE. This system is largest seismic system of world, revealed by us; it has an extent of more than 3000 km. Attractor for this mega-system it has the highest values of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators and entropy. In this system, in the south of central Chile, on May 22, 1960 occurred the strongest of known earthquakes in the world, M=9.5. Chilean earthquake (19:11:20) on May 22 1960, M=9.5, had 4 strong foreshocks from M>7.0, strongest of which occurred on May 21, M=7.9 and many aftershocks occurred, with 5 of magnitude 7.0 or greater. Extensive destruction was in Concepcion, Valdivia and Puerto Montt area, many small cities and villages were practically destroyed. Were observed massive landslides, violent volcanic eruptions and extensive deformations of the earth's surface. The formed waves of tsunami caused destruction and victim along the coastline of Chile, into Hawaii, Japan and along the coasts in the entire zone of Pacific Ocean. Retrospective. In the MSS of Chile we made a retrospective forecast Concepcion-Valparaiso earthquake, February 27, 2010, M=8.8, which had a plane of slip 600x100 km. The trajectory of the preparation of this catastrophic earthquake, which started after the Chilean earthquake of 1960, 49 years it was located in the steady zone out of the attractor and only to the middle of 2009 it approached the attractor. There was already by July 2009 prepared and it was expected strong earthquake from M=8.8, which occurred after 7 months. The distinctive feature tracks training earthquake in MSS of Chile is that they accumulate a very high values of cumulative energy earthquakes-indicators before closer to attractor and approaching a zone of instability on the left. I.e. tracks almost 98-99% of time were in steady state. The track of Chilean earthquake on May 22, 1960 had improbably high values of cumulative energy and entropy. The average period frequency is 44 years. Until February 27 the probability of earthquake from Ms≥8.5 in the system was high P=79.24% (Pw=82.90%, Pk=95.60%). А. Forecast earthquakes with М≥8.5. At present earthquakes from М≥8.5 are not expected. В. Forecast earthquakes with 8.0≤Ms<8.5. At present earthquakes from М≥8.0 are not expected. С. Subsystem North of Chile. Forecast earthquakes with 7.8≤Ms<8.0. Track is located in the attractor. In the subsystem it was since March 2010 active, the probability of earthquake with 7.8≤Ms<8.0 grew by 3% (Pk by 3%, Pw by 2%). To end 2011 will be dangerous in 150 km to the coastal zone of Chile South of Antofagasta (see Fig.1). At the seismic activation here can occur strong earthquake from M=7.8. D. Subsystem South of Chile. Forecast earthquakes with 7.8≤Ms<8.0. At present earthquakes from М≥7.8 are not expected. Probability of earthquake in system Р=0.04% (P_K=15%, P_W=0.3%). Track approaches an attractor.	P_K=0% P_W=0% Р=0% P_K=47% P_W=41% Р=20%
	PUERTO-RICO, Virgin Islands. Мs≥7.0 (monitoring is from March 31, 2010)
	SS Puerto Rico. This system occupies the local region east of SS Haiti on the northeast of Caribbean plate with the size of 550x250 km. Tectonics it is caused by complex interaction Caribbean plate with the North American plate, system includes the Puerto Rico Trench and the Virgin Islands Trough. Puerto Rico and Virgin islands are situated on the micro plate-block, that are located between the downbent parts of the major plates. Strongest earthquakes in SS: 1787, M8.1 (Puerto Rico Trench), 1867, M7.5 (Anegada Trough), 1918, 7.5 (Mona Canyon), 1943, M7.8 (Northern Mona Passage). All these earthquakes generated the strong waves of tsunami. SS Puerto Rico relates to badly determined according to our classification. There is one reliable completed cycle - this is the preparation the 1943 earthquake. Forecast earthquakes with М≥7.0. Situation in the system dangerous, on the north of Puerto Rico is expected strong earthquake from M=7.3-7.5. Probability of earthquake high P=80% (Pw=95%, Pk=85%). The last track of the preparation of strong earthquake started after earthquake 1943. At the present time (on March 31, 2010) track on the entropy has long ago exceeded the point of instability 1943, and on the cumulative energy there is an essential scarcity. Apparently, strong earthquake from M>7.3 will occur after earthquakes from M=6.5-6.9, whose probability is also high.	P_K=85% P_W=95% Р=80%
	MEXICO NW, Baja California, Gulf of California. Мs≥6.6 (monitoring is from April 5, 2010)
	А. SS Baja California, FORECAST, Ms≥6.6. For the development of boundaries this system we studied the seismic zone, which is stretched to the southeast into the Gulf of California. Seismicity is here caused by interaction of Pacific Ocean plate with North American plate. The boundary of plates consists of a series right-lateral transform faults of North Western orientation, which are stretched from the south of Gulf California to Salton Sea Trough in South California, where terminate San Andreas Fault. These faults are disconnected by the spreading centers with the high heat fluxes. RETROSPECTIVE. In SS Baja California we made a retrospective forecast of Sierra El Mayor Earthquake on April 4, 2010. The trajectory of the preparation of this strong earthquake started after the earthquake on October 17, 1979 and toward the end 2009 it was located below attractor. Earthquake-indicator dated December 30, 2009, M=5.8 raised track, it fell into the zone close to the unstable region for the Imperial Fault . Earthquake occurred on 4 April, 50 km is southwestern than the Imperial Fault, on the parallel Laguna Salada Fault. On the Laguna Salada Fault in the system occurred historical earthquake on February 23, 1892, M=6.9; however, its trajectory to us was unknown. For this reason the retrospective forecast of the place of earthquake - Fault Imperial or Laguna Salada. The distinctive feature of the tracks preparation of strong earthquakes in SS Baja California is that they have relatively low values of cumulative energy with the high values of entropy. Until April 4 the probability of earthquake from Ms≥6.6 in the system was high Р=50.90% (P_W=83.74% P_K=60.77%). Thus, a strong earthquake, preparation of which lasted 29 years, it was possible to expect since the beginning of 2010 on the Imperial Fault or Laguna Salada Fault. Now in the system it is not dangerous, earthquakes from M≥6.6 are not expected. Probability of earthquake in system Р=0.01% (P_K=0.3%, P_W=4%) В. SS Gulf of California, FORECAST, Ms≥6.6. System is stretched on the Gulf of California by 900 km and has a width of 300 km. The strongest earthquakes have magnitudes 6.9-7.0. Is outlined migration in time of earthquakes with M≥6.6 from southeast to northwest. Last strong earthquake occurred on August 3, 2009, M=6.9. The probability in the system before this earthquake was equal Р=41% (P_W=81% P_K=51%). Now in the system it is not dangerous, earthquakes from M≥6.6 are not expected, Р=0%.	P_K=0.3% P_W=4% Р=0.01%
	CAYMAN ISLANDS,Belize,Guatemala(E),Gonduras(N),Cuba (SW),Jamaika(W). Мs≥6.6 (monitoring is from May 1,2010)
	SS CAYMAN ISLANDS. This system is an extended area west of the SS Haiti in the northwest Caribbean plate up to the center of Guatemala with size of 1400x250 km. Tectonics due to interaction Caribbean plate with the North American plate on the Cayman Trench. The system includes left strike-slip faults: Motagua fault, Swan Fault, Walton Fault, Oriente Fault, separated by the Cayman spreading centre. Strongest earthquakes in SS: 1917, M7.4 (Oriente Fault), 1941, M7.1 (Jamaica SW), 1976, M7.5 (Guatemala), 2009, M7.2 (Honduras). A. Forecast earthquakes with М≥7.0. At present earthquakes from М≥7.0 are not expected, Р=0.02% (Pk=2%, Pw=1%). B. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. In the near future will be potentially dangerous to the Oriente Fault Zone. In 2011 south of the Cayman Islands can be prepared by an earthquake with М6.6. Then the danger may migrate to the south-west of Cuba. Now the probability of earthquake with М=6.6-6.7 is equal to Р=23% (P_K=67%, P_W=35%). In the western part of the system, including Belize, Guatemala (east), Honduras (north) a strong earthquake is not expected.	P_K=67% P_W=35% Р=23%
	PERU, Ecuador (south), Brazil (W). Мs≥7.3 (monitoring is from May 20,2010)
	SS of PERU. This system is located north of the SS Chili, includes Peru, southern Ecuador and western Brazil, has the size 2000x750 km. Tectonics caused subduction of oceanic Nazca plate beneath the South American plate at a velocity of 8 cm/yr. In SS Peru subduction has some features: the classical subduction zone with the plane dipping 30° is located in the southern Peru (manifested deep focus seismicity and active volcanism), and flat subduction in central-northern areas of Peru, the Nazca plate at a depth of 100 km passes in a horizontal state (there is no deep focus seismicity and active volcanism). Strongest earthquakes in SS: 1868, M9.0 (southern Peru, killed thousands people), 1942, M8.1 (off the coast of central Peru), 1966, M8.1 (off the coast from Callao, claimed about 125 lives), 1970, M7.8 (west of Chimbite, 50,000 people killed), 1974, M7.9 (Lima area), 2001, M8.2 (Arequipa-Camana-Tacna area, 150 people killed), 2007, М8.0 (Pisco, central Peru, 514 people killed). А. Forecast earthquakes with М≥7.8. Track approaches an attractor. In spite of seismic activity remains the scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators, equal to energy of earthquake from M6.6. Expected activation of earthquakes. If occurs earthquake from M=6.6, then track can fall into the zone of instability for the coastal area in central Peru from Trujillo to Chimbote, where can occur strong earthquake M7.8. This state will be preserved in the next two years. Since May 2010 the probability of earthquake M=7.8 increased by 1% (5%, 3%) and it is now equal to Р=2% (P_K=13%, P_W=14%). B. Subsystem SOUTH PERU. Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. Track is located under the attractor, there is a scarcity of energy of earthquake- indicators equal to energy of earthquake M=6.7. Situation is unstable. In the near half a year is expected the activation of earthquake-indicators with M=6.5-7.0. At the present time the probability of earthquake from 7.3≤Ms7.8 is equal to Р=10% (P_K=20%, P_W=47%). Is potentially dangerous in the coastal zone in the south of Peru from Molendo to Puerto De Lomas, M=7.4. C. Subsystem CENTRAL PERU. Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. Track is located out of the attractor, earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8 are not expected. At the present time the probability of earthquake with 7.3≤Ms<7.8 is equal to Р=0.1% (Pk=2%, Pw=5%). D. Subsystem NORTH PERU. Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. Track is located out of the attractor, earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8 are not expected. At the present time the probability of earthquake with 7.3≤Ms<7.8 is equal to Р=0.03% (P_K=1.8%, P_W=1.9%). On the north of Peru possible the deep-focus earthquake with H=110-120 km and М=7.0-7.1.	P_K=13% P_W=14% Р=2% P_K=20% P_W=47% Р=10%
	MEXICO (Central). Мs≥7.3 (monitoring is from June 1,2010)
	SS MEXICO. This system is located in the coastal zone on the southwest of Mexico, includes the territories of states Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero, Oaxaca, has sizes 1100x350 km. Tectonics it is caused by subduction of the ocean plats Rivera (2 cm/yr) and Cocos (4.6 cm/yr) under the North American plate on the Middle American Trench. In SS Mexico as in SS Peru predominates flat subduction. Cocos Plate is immersed at the angle of 10-20° in the northeastern direction and at the depth of 80 km converts to horizontal state. As a result this in 200-300 km to the zone of seismic activity in central Mexico is absent deep-focus seismicity and active volcanism. Strongest earthquakes in SS: 1907, M8.1 (Guerrero Coast), 1932, M8.1 (Jalisco-Colima Coast, fatalities 45), 1941, M8.1 (Michoacan Coast), 1957, M7.8 (Guerrero, 68 people killed), 1978, M7.9 (Oaxaca), 1985, M8.2 (Michoacan Coast, 9500 people killed), 1995, М8.0 (Colima, Manzanillo, 58 people killed). A. Forecast earthquakes with М≥7.8. Situation in the system remains critical, track is located in attractor. It is dangerous in the coastal zone in the south-southwest of Oaxaca, here is expected strong earthquake with M=7.9. There is a scarcity of energy equal to energy of earthquake-indicator M=7.2. Most likely earthquake will be trigger or will have strong foreshock M=7.2. Earthquake can occur in the next 6 months. Depending on the development of seismicity the danger can migrate into the coastal zone of Acapulco (state Guerrero). Situation will be permitted prior to the middle of 2011. At the present time the probability of earthquake M=7.9 high and is equal to Р=56% (P_K=70%, P_W=80%). B. Subsystem RIVERA (includes the states of Jalisco and Colima). Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. There is a scarcity of energy of earthquake- indicators. In the coming years not dangerous, if activation earthquakes-indicators will not. At the present time the probability of earthquake with 7.3≤Ms<7.8 is equal to Р=0.04% (Pk=0.9%, Pw=3.7%). Dangerous for the earthquake with M=7.4 is potentially the west of state Jalisco. C. Subsystem MICHOACAN (includes the state of Michoacan and NE area of state Guerrero). Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. Track is located in the attractor. It is potentially dangerous in the coastal zone in the West of state Michoacan, where can be prepared earthquake with M=7.4 due to only static increase in the entropy. At the present time the probability of earthquake 7.3≤Ms<7.8 high and is equal to Р=59% (P_K=77%, P_W=76%). D. Subsystem OAXACA (includes the Central and SE parts of state Guerrero and state Oaxaca). Forecast earthquakes with 7.2≤Ms<7.8. Track is located below attractor, state unstable, there is a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. With relative seismic gap it is dangerous in the south-southwest of Oaxaca (west of Salina Cruz), where can be prepared strong earthquake with M=7.5. If seismic activity, the danger may migrate in the SE part of Guerrero. At the present time the probability of earthquake 7.3≤Ms<7.8 is equal to Р=3% (P_K=6%, P_W=49%). E. Subsystem PUEBLA (includes the states of Puebla and Veracruz). Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Ms<7.8. Situation in subsystem very dangerous, prepared and expected strong earthquake with M=7.2, with the depth about 80-90 km. Most likely earthquake will occur in the next months in the Cordoba-Serdan-Tehuacan triangle. The last time here such strong earthquake occurred on August 28, 1973. Then more than 600 people perished, thousand remained without the roof, extensive destruction was in the states Morales, Puebla and Veracruz. At the present time the probability of earthquake 7.3≤Ms<7.8 high and is equal to Р=72% (P_K=85%, P_W=85%).	P_K=70% P_W=80% Р=56% P_K=0.9% P_W=3.7% Р=0.04% P_K=77% P_W=76% Р=59% P_K=6% P_W=49% Р=3% P_K=85% P_W=85% Р=72%
	MID-ASIA (Uzbekistan,Tajikistan,Kyrgyzstan,S Kazakhstan,NW China Ms≥6.5 (monitoring is from December 1,2010)
	SS MID-ASIA. This system includes eastern Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, NW China, NE Afghanistan, has dimensions 1400x800 km. Tectonics and seismicity are explained by the collision of Indian and Eurasian plates in the region of Pamir and Tien Shan. Here is a compression of the crust in the North-South direction. As a result of collision in the eastern Pamir was formed Tarim microblock, are displaced to the east, which is in the south borders with Tibet. To NE system is allocated a seismoactive block of Issyk Kul, which borders Kazakhstan platform and with the Kyrgyz Basin. Is dominated by thrust, reverse processes with weak right strike-slip components. The entire system with a SE to NW crosses the right strike-slip Talas Fergana Fault. To the west of Pamir was formed the Tajik Basin, displacing to the west, and the Fergana Basin deformable by the result of counterclockwise rotation. Both these blocks are converted to the west in the Turan platform. The strongest earthquakes in the SS: 1887, M7.3 (Vernenskoe, 332 killed), 1889, M8.3 (Chilic), 1902, M7.8 (Kashgar), 1907, M8.1 (Kartag, 12,000 were killed), 1911, M8.2 (Kemin, 390 killed), 1946, M7.6 (Chatkal), 1949, M7.4 (Haitsk, 28,000 were killed), 1974, M7.3 (Markansuysk), 1976, М7.0, М7.3 (Gazley), 1978, M7.1 (Zhalanash-Tyup), 1984, M7.1 (Gazley), 1985, M7.4 (NW China, Wuqia-Shufu, 71 deaths), 1992, M7.3 (Suusamirsk). SS GAZLEY, Ms>7.0. Now in SS the strong earthquake is not expected. Retrospective analysis Gazley Earthquakes in 1976 (1976.04.08, M=7.0, 1976.05.17, M=7.3) showed that they were prepared to tectonics in the SS Mid Asia and the subsystem Gazley. Decisive role played by the earthquake-indicators 1929 and 1935 for 47 years before the main shock. As a result of counterclockwise rotational motion Uzbek platform (within the Turan) in the area Gazley formed high right lateral shear stresses. Curiously, that the disruptive Tashkent earthquake of 1966, M=5.2 is one of the links (was earthquake-indicator), the beginning of the last stage of preparation Gazley earthquakes of 1976. Thus, the preparation Gazley earthquakes began in the years 1929-1935, then came the 31 years gap prior to 1966 and from 1966 to 1973 began the final stage of preparation. Our studies show that the preparation Gazley earthquakes in 1976 the Semipalatinsk explosions are not involved, but the injection of water in natural gas production could contribute to the formation of the main rupture near Gazley. Pumping gas in this way could also reflect on the specific release of tectonic energy portions in the form of a double earthquake. Studies on the energy diagram shows that by 1976 had accumulated more power and expected a stronger earthquake than had happened. The decrease of seismic energy could be due to water injection, and in part the energy remains in the form of residual strain. In contrast to 1976, training Gazley earthquake in 1984 occurred in the local area and had a purely local significance, it was provoked by the exploitation of gas fields, resulting in residual stresses found an outlet in the form of a strong earthquake. To reinforce the results of the SS Gazley we get close to it in terms of tectonic SS San Bernardino in Southern California and a comparative analysis of track and power diagrams. SS San Bernardino is located northeast of the San Andreas Fault and covers the Mojave Desert. Here in 1992 there was a strong earthquake with M=7.4, followed in 1999 with M=7.1. Faulting in the sources were removed from each other by 20-30 km. It also began preparing in advance, since 1948, and then for 38 years until 1986 was a gap, and the last stage of training began in the last 7 years. In the case of earthquakes Gazley between 1976 and 1984 was 7.8 years, in the case of San Bernardino between 1992 and 1999 was 7.3 years. Track diagrams and the instability areas in both of SS is very close. On the basis of seismic entropy method can be predicted, that within the SS Gazley in the platform area since 1929 began a cycle of active deformation processes that are critical for the accumulation of entropy would lead to disruption, faulting. Approximate time when this could happen would be "predicted" using data from SS San Bernardino, but if these data were not. А. SS MID-ASIA. Forecast earthquakes with М≥7.5. The situation in the system dangerous, the track is in the attractor. Danger 130 km east-northeast of Dushanbe, on the border with Kyrgyzstan, near the focal zone Haitsk earthquake in 1941, (South Gissar Fault). There in 2011-2012 can be prepared a strong earthquake with M=7.5. Potentially dangerous to the west of Tajikistan in a zone 70 km south of Dushanbe (Darvaz-Karakul Fault). After implementation of a strong earthquake in the west of Tajikistan can begin a new cycle of earthquake with M=8.2 near Lake Issyk Kul, which would pose a threat and for Almaty. Estimated this could happen in 2014-2015 or later, but the real preparation of such an event has not yet started so the exact time is now impossible to determine. At present , the probability of strong earthquakes in a system with M≥7.5 is high and equal to P = 65% (Pk=75%, Pw=87%). B. SS MID-ASIA. Forecast earthquakes with 7.1≤Ms<7.5. The track is located in the attractor. The probability of earthquakes with 7.1≤Ms<7.5 tall and is equal to P=70% (Pk=81%, Pw=86%). The most dangerous in the border area between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, in area of the source of historical Haitsk earthquake in 1949, (South Gissar Fault) M7.4. В1. In subsystem Tajikistan - NW China such quake is already prepared, the probability is very high P=78% (Pk=87%, Pw=90%). An earthquake can happen already in 2011. В2. In the subsystem Kyrgyzstan-South Kazakhstan probability of earthquakes 7.1≤Ms<7.5 is zero Р=0% (Рk=0.04%, Pw=5%). There is a significant shortage of energy earthquake-indicators. In 2011 there are expected to activate earthquake-indicators with M=6.4-7.0. В3. In the subsystem West Tajikistan dangerous on the SE of Dushanbe in area of the historical Kartag earthquake in 1907 (Darvaz-Karakul Fault), M7.3, the probability is high. C. SS MID-ASIA. Forecast earthquakes with 6.5≤Ms<7.1. С1. Subsystem Kyrgyzstan-South Kazakhstan. In subsystem danger in the first half of 2011. In the north-east of Lake Issyk Kul, 75 km east of Almaty, on the border with Kazakhstan could be prepared by an earthquake with M=6.5, close to the focal area Baysorun earthquake November 12, 1990. In Almaty, the intensity of this earthquake can be up to VI balls. The probability of this earthquake is now a high Р=67% (Рk=80%, Pw=84%). С2. Subsystem West Tajikistan - NW China. In the subsystem last strong earthquake occurred on Oct. 5, 2008 at the junction of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and China, with M=6.8. Now the subsystem earthquakes with M>6.4 is not expected, the probability of earthquake P=0%. C3. Subsystem West Tajikistan. In the subsystem West Tajikistan dangerously near Garm, where the next two years, when activated earthquake-indicators may be prepared by an earthquake with M=6.5. The probability of this earthquake is now Р=10% (Рk=31%, Pw=33%).	P_K=75% P_W=87% Р=65% P_K=81% P_W=86% Р=70% P_K=80% P_W=84% Р=67% P_K=31% P_W=33% Р=10%
	EAST TIEN-SHAN (prov. Xinjiang, NW China, SE Kazakhstan). Мs≥7.0 (monitoring is from March 1,2011)
	SS East TIEN-SHAN. This system includes a province Xinjiang (capital Urumchi) on NW China, and partially territory of SE Kazakhstan, has the sizes 1000х500 km. The tectonics and seismicity are caused by collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates in area Tien Shan and formation of right-lateral faults. SS Tien Shan there is between systems Mid-Asia and Altai. The strongest earthquakes in the SS: 1906, M7.9 (Northern Xinjiang, Dzhungarian right lateral strick-slip fault), 1944, М=7.2 (Northern Xinjiang), 1949, М=7.3 (Southern Xinjiang). А. Forecast earthquakes with М≥7.0. The system is classified as badly defined, we have only one fairly complete the cycle for the earthquake of 1944. Now the track far exceeded the instability of this earthquake. Considering our experience we can conclude that in system earthquake with М>7.3 is already prepared, however there is some deficiency of earthquake-indicators. Earthquake can occur in the next 2-3 years. The probability of earthquake is high. B. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤М<7.0. The subsystem belongs to the class badly defined. A situation in system unstable, despite the low probability, in the system is dangerous. Any moderate earthquake-indicator with М=6.2-6.4 can raise stronger earthquake with М=6.7. Can be dangerous in area of Urumchi.	P_K=69% P_W=76% Р=53% P_K=0.01% P_W=0.65% Р=0%
	ALTAI (Altaisk Kray, Tuva RF, W Mongolia, E Kazakhstan, NW China). Мs≥6.6 (monitoring is from March 1,2011)
	SS ALTAI. This system includes the Altaisk Kray, Tuva (RF), western Mongolia, NW China, and partially territory of eastern Kazakhstan, has the sizes 1200х1000 km. The tectonics and seismicity are caused by collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates in area of Altai, Gobi-Altai and Sayan Range, formation of right and left-lateral faults. SS Altai is the north-east of the SS East Tien Shan. The strongest earthquakes in the SS: 1761, М=8.2 (Er Hutel), 1905, М=8.0 (Tsetserleg) и М=8.3 (Bolnay), 1931, М=8.0 (Fu Yum), 1957, М=8.1 (Gobi Altay), 1970, М=7.0 (Ureg Nur), 2003, М=7.3 (Gorno-Altaisk). А. Forecast earthquakes with Мs≥7.8. The system badly defined, there are only two authentic completed seismic cycles. Strong earthquake with М≥7.8 in the western Mongolia is expected. The track has exceeded areas of instability of Gobi-Altaisk earthquake of 1957 and the Mongolo-Altaisk earthquake of 1931. On a configuration the track is close to a track preparation Mongolo-Altaisk earthquake. Proceeding from it, we can conclude that the most dangerous to be in the fault zone of historical Mongolian earthquake in 1761 on the structure Ar-Hutel (a northeast slope of Mongolian Altai). To define earthquake time inconveniently, expected magnitude М=8.1-8.2. In the territory of Altaisk Kray (Russian Federation) such earthquake could affect the intensity in V-VI balls. The probability of earthquake in the system now is very high and equal to Р=89.62% (P_K=90.56%, P_W=98.96%). В. Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Мs<7.8. The track started after the Gorno-Altaisk earthquake of 2003. While strong earthquakes with 7.0≤М <7.8 aren't expected. The probability of such earthquakes is small Р=0.01% (P_K=0.63%, P_W=0.87%). There is a deficiency of cumulative energy. Activization of earthquake-indicators is expected. Retrospective (prediction of Gorno-Altaisk earthquake of 2003). In this subsystem there was a preparation of last strong Gorno-Altaisk earthquake of 2003. The probability of earthquake in system by September 2003 was very high and equaled to Р=86.87% (P_K=94.14%, P_W=92.28%). The track developed 33 years. By 2003 the track passed all areas of instability and came nearer in a zone of instability with the maximum cumulative energy and entropy. It was possible to predict earthquake in a time window 3 months since September 2003. Considering a tectonic situation in SS and the maximum values of a track, strong earthquake it was possible to expect on NW system, in the area of crossing continuations fault zones of earthquakes 1905 and 1931. Note that a basic role in preparation of the Gorno-Altaisk earthquake played Urengursk earthquake 1990, М=6.8, in the border region of Kazakhstan with a province Xinjiang (China). С. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤М<7.0. The probability of such earthquakes is small Р=2.82% (P_K=16.29%, P_W=17.31%). Last weak earthquake of 10.02.2011 with М=5.3 to the south of Sayanogorsk in Krasnoyarsk Kray has raised probability on 0.8% (on cumulative energy on 4%). The track comes nearer to instability area on the western Mongolia, near to border of Altaisk Kray and Tuva. Here strong earthquake may be prepared for the middle of 2012 with М=6.7.	P_K=91% P_W=99% Р=90% P_K=0.63% P_W=0.87% Р=0.01% P_K=16% P_W=17% Р=3%