Bulletin 004
of July 13, 2011
EARTHQUAKES PREDICTION
on July 13, 2011
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Situation in Seismic Systems at July 01, 2011. Depending on the development of seismic processes forecasting results over time, adjusted or modified.
| Ìåãà SS ITALY. The forecast earthquake with Ìs≥6.6. (monitoring since 2011) | ||
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Forecast of earthquakes from Ìs≥6.6, H<80 km. For Italy earthquakes with magnitudes more Ì≥6.6 we will consider as mega-earthquakes. These are the most destructive earthquakes in Italy. From the beginning of the last century in system have occurred 5 mega earthquakes (Pizza, 1905, Ì=7.3; Messina, 1908, Ì=7.1; Avezzano, 1915, Ì=6.7; Friuli, 1976, Ì=6.8; Kalitri, 1980, Ì=6.8). The mega-system includes all territory of Italy and frontier territories of France, Switzerland, Austria, Slovenia, coastal areas of Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. As a whole, the region seismotectonics is characterised by interaction of Adriatic microplate and the African plate with Eurasian. The system has depth of 80 km, does not include deep focus seismicity zone in the southeast of Tyrrhenian sea. Track in the next years till the end of 2014 will be in a zone of instability for the south of Italy, between the cities of Kosentza and Potenza where strong earthquake with Ì=6.9÷7.0 can be prepared. Probability of earthquake high Ð=61% (Pk=77%, Pw=79%) as the track has already bypassed points of instability for four of six above-stated earthquakes. |
PK=77% PW=79% Ð= 61% |
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| SS ITALY. The forecast earthquake with Ìs≥6.2 (monitoring since 1995) |
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Forecast of earthquakes from Ìs≥6.2. The system includes the entire territory of Italy and the border areas of France, Switzerland, Austria, Slovenia, the coastal areas of Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. In general, the seismotectonics of the region is characterized by the interaction of far advanced Adriatic microplate by the North and the African plate with the Eurasian. The system has a depth of 500 km and includes the zone of deep seismicity in the south-east of the Tyrrhenian Sea. After the publication of Bulletin 003 of September 17, 2010 in this system of sensitive earthquake-indicators it was not so predictions are not changed. Currently, the trajectory on the track diagram is out of the attractor, so in Italy, in the bordering countries and on the Adriatic coast of Slovenia, Croatia and Montenegro earthquake with magnitude Ms≥6.2 are not expected. |
PK=0% PW=0% Ð= 0% |
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| CENTRAL ITALY. |
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The forecast earthquake with 5.8≤Ìs<6.2. After the publication of Bulletin 003 of September 17, 2010 in this system of sensitive earthquake-indicators it was not so predictions are not changed. At present trajectory on the track diagram is located out of the attractor; therefore in central Italy (from Calabria to Perugia) earthquake with the magnitudes Ms≥5.8 are not expected. Let us recall that in this time can occur the indicator-earthquakes with magnitudes 5.4-5.7, which are also dangerous. |
PK=0% PW=0% Ð= 0% |
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| NORTHERN ITALY. | ||
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The forecast earthquake with 5.7≤Ìs<6.2. Trajectory on the track diagram is located in the attractor; the probability of earthquake with the magnitude 5.8≤Ìs<6.2 on the north of Italy high. In spite of this, situation on the north-west of Italy, on the southeast of France, in the Alps is not dangerous. The track was developed only statically, there is a certain scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators, which corresponds to energy of M=5.2 earthquake. According to our forecast, instability migrates from Verona to the east. At the end 2011 danger will move to the northeast of Italy, on the Border with Slovenia and Austria, M5.7. |
PK=64% PW=76% Ð=49% |
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| SOUTHERN ITALY. The forecast earthquake with 6.0≤Ìs<6.2 | ||
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À. Shallow H<40 km The situation in the system continues to be dangerous, the trajectory has the maximum value of entropy, there is a scarcity of energy indicator-earthquakes. In the West of Sicily or Calabria can be prepared the earthquake from M~6.1, H<40 km. Most likely this earthquake will be trigger and on the time it will occur after shallow earthquake from M5.6 in the south of Italy. If activization does not occur, in a current of year there will be an atypical earthquake with Ì=6.1. The probability of strong earthquake very high, a situation becomes critical the next year. Â. Deep focus 250 km<H<350 km Trajectory through the previous it is located in the zone of the instability of the deep-focus earthquakes H=250-350 km in SE area of the Tyrrhenian sea, but there is an essential scarcity of energy indicator-earthquakes. It is expected deep focus strong trigger earthquake with Ì=7.0. Let us note that the intensity from the source of deep strong earthquakes on the surface can be III-IV ball, that completely not dangerously and it cannot cause destruction and victims. The danger in tsunami from such earthquakes is also negligible (to 10 cm). |
PK=73% PW=97% Ð=71%
PK=39% PW=79% Ð=31% |
| CALIFORNIA (USA). The forecast earthquake with Ìs≥7.8. (monitoring since May 1, 2011) | ||
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Forecast of earthquakes from Ìs≥7.8. Since May 1, 2011 we do monitoring and the forecast mega earthquakes in California (see Communication from May 9, 2011). Preparation of catastrophic earthquake in SS California with Ì≥7.5 has outgrown in preparation mega-earthquake with Ì≥7.8. In California three historical mega-earthquakes are known: the Southern segment of San Andreas Fault, 1690, Ì=7.8; the Fort Tijon, 1857, Ì=7.9; the San Francisco, 1906, Ì=7.8. In Southern California mega-earthquake with Ì=8.1 which should occur to the middle of 2014 is prepared. Los Angeles gets to a zone of influence of predicted earthquake also. Probability of earthquake very high. In comparison with the forecast of catastrophic earthquakes with Ì≥7.5, final date has come nearer for three years. In more details about this forecast look the above-stated Message from May, 9th. On San Andreas Fault in the Central California is excluded catastrophic earthquake with Ìs≥7.8, similar to the San Francisco earthquake of 1906. |
PK=99% PW=96% Ð=96% |
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| CENTRAL CALIFORNIA (USA). The forecast earthquake with Ìs≥5.8 (monitoring since 1995) | ||
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Forecast of earthquakes from Ìs≥5.8. After the publication of Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 the forecasts has not changed. The trajectory continues to grow due to the static growth of entropy. If the system will continue only increase the entropy of a static and will not happen seismic activity, that till the end of 2011 the trajectory will be in a zone of instability for a segment of San Andreas Fault in area of Parkfield. From March till May, 2011 the track has passed near to a point of instability of Parkfield earthquake 1934, but earthquake with Ì=6.0 has not occurred. We have strong reasons to consider that earthquake with Ì=6.2 in Parkfield is prepared, for this reason term is prolonged till the end of the year (see Communication). The probability of strong earthquake in the system now is Ðk=44%, Pw= 65%, P=29%. Over the past 6 months has increased the probability of 1%. |
PK=44% PW=65% Ð=29% |
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| SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (USA). The forecast earthquake with Ìs≥5.8. | ||
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À. Forecast of catastrophic earthquakes with 7.5≤Ìs<7.8. In southern California earthquakes with 7.5≤Ìs<7.8 are not expected, as preparation of such earthquakes has turned in preparation of mega-earthquake with Ì=8.1 (look above). Â. Forecast of earthquakes with 6.3≤Ms<7.5 in Southern California. B1. System of Greater Los Angeles area. In subsystem of Greater Los Angeles area and San Bernardino there is a big deficiency of earthquake-indicators energy of is a sign of preparation of the above described catastrophic earthquake with Ì≥7.8 on a San Andreas Fault, and weaker earthquakes with 6.3≤Ms<7.5 are not expected, their probability is equal to zero. Till the end of 2012 in Los Angeles area activization of moderate earthquake-indicators with Ì=5.8÷6.2 is expected. Â2. System of Garlock Fault. For Garlock Fault the trajectory, on the contrary, has necessary value of earthquake-indicators energy for manufacture of catastrophic earthquake with Ì≥7.5, but there is a big deficiency of entropy. Earthquakes with 6.3≤Ms<7.5 are not expected in a Garlok Fault area.
Â3. System of
San Jacinto.
San
Jacinto seismic system
supervises
Faults of Imperial, the
San
Jacinto, the Southern
San Andreas. Now earthquakes
with 6.3≤Ms<7.5 are not expected. Probability of strong
earthquake high Ðk=44%, Pw=50%,
P=22%. The track is in
attractor, but a condition stable. The track started
after earthquake 1987 and is close to a track of preparation
1968 earthquake with Ì=6.8 (Coyote Greek Fault). Ñ. Forecast of earthquakes with 5.8≤Ms<6.3 in Southern California.
C1. System of Greater Los
Angeles area.
In Los Angeles area
there is a deficiency of allocated cumulative energy.
To the middle of 2012 in Los Angeles
area there will be an
earthquake with Ì=5.8-6.0. Probability of such earthquake now
on cumulative energy rather low, and on entropy high
Ðk=70%, Pw=94%, P=66%. For 9
months the probability has increased by 1%.
Most likely earthquake will occur to the east of Pasadena (Arcadia)
on a Sierra Madre Trust Fault. Also it is potentially dangerous on
NW from Los Angeles in area
Santa Barbara. C3. Subsystem of San Jacinto. Probability of strong earthquake P=0%. Earthquakes with 5.8≤Ms<6.3 are not expected. C4. Subsystem of San Bernardino. Till the end of 2013 earthquake with Ì=6.0 on a southern segment of San Andreas Fault (close to the epicenter of Landers) is expected. Probability of such earthquake now Ðk=18%, Pw=59%, P=10%. Ñ5. Joint Subsystem of San Jacinto - San Bernardino. Earthquakes with 5.8≤Ms<6.3 are not expected. Probability of such earthquake now Ðk=17%, Pw=18%, P=3%. Danger is near to the Southern segment of San Andreas and north of San Jacinto. |
PK=44% PW=50% Ð=22%
PK=45% PW=52% Ð=23%
PK=70% PW=94% Ð=66%
PK=18% PW=59% Ð=10% |
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| OWENS VALLEY (California, USA) Ìs≥6.4 (monitoring is from February 1, 2010) | ||
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À. Forecast of catastrophic earthquakes with Ìs≥7.5. In this system known historical devastating earthquake Owens Valley 1872.03.27 M=7.6. In the mechanism of this earthquake had prevailed right lateral slip, the faulting reached 160 km. Since then, has 138 years, in this system earthquakes with M>6.5 did not occur. This system relates to the class of badly determined; there is nothing reliable completed seismic cycle. For the forecast of catastrophic earthquakes there is not enough information, however, the comparative analysis shows that on entropy such earthquake has already ripened, but there is a deficiency of earthquake-indicators energy. In system it will be dangerous by 2020. Â. Forecast of earthquakes with 6.4≤Ìs<7.5. Trajectory is located in the attractor. The probability of a strong earthquake Ðk=18%, Pw=55%, P=10%. In 6 months the probability increased by 2%. By 2020, in the Mammoth Lakes can be prepared earthquake with M=6.4-6.5. This earthquake can provoke strong earthquake with M>7.5. C. Forecast of earthquakes with 5.8≤Ìs<6.4. The trajectory is in attractor and has high values of parametres. Earthquake with Ì=5.8 in area Mammoth Lakes is expected. Earthquake will occur till the end of 2013. Probability of earthquake with 6.1≤Ìs<6.4 high Ðk=55%, Pw=70%, P=38%, and with 5.8≤Ìs<6.1 very high Ðk=97%, Pw=98%, P=95%. |
PK=18% PW=58% Ð=10%
PK=97% PW=98% Ð=95% |
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| AZORES-ATLANTIC-PORTUGAL Ìs≥6.4 | ||
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À. Forecast of catastrophic earthquakes with Ìs≥7.7. The trajectory of the preparation of strong earthquake from Ìs≥7.7 is located in the attractor and has very high values. Because of the large uncertainty of data we preserve the dangerous situation, located west southwest of Portugal (150-250 km) on the bottom of Atlantic Ocean within the next few years. To end 2014 southwest of Lisbon at a distance 300 km in the ocean can occur strong earthquake from M=8.0. For 9 months the probability of such earthquake has increased on 1%. Then situation somewhat is stabilized and danger will be moved away from Portugal and migrate to the West on 500 km. There to middle 2015 will be possibly already earthquake from M=8.1-8.2. The closing date of the realization of oceanic strong earthquake 2016. The trajectory almost repeats preparation of 1941 earthquake with Ì=8.3. Such earthquakes are dangerous by the fact that from them can form the waves of tsunami from 5 to 10 m. The large uncertainty of forecast it is connected with the fact, system is badly determined and that the tectonic processes proceed here relatively slowly. Â. Forecast of earthquakes with 6.4≤Ìs<7.5. In 9 months the probability of such earthquakes on the entropy grew by 6%. Now the trajectory is in area of the instability corresponding to a zone stretched south-west from Portugal (150-250 km) at the bottom of Atlantic ocean. Strong earthquake with Ì=6.5 here can be prepared. Danger to remain even three months, then it to leave to the West. Earthquakes from 7.0<Ì<7.7 are not expected. For populating the coastal towns of Portugal and Morocco the forecasted earthquakes are dangerous only from the point of view of the appearance from them waves of tsunami. |
PK=86% PW=85% Ð=72%
PK=9% PW=23% Ð=2% |
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| MOROCCO-PORTUGAL-West SPAIN Ìs≥6.2 | ||
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Earthquakes with Ìs≥6.2 is not expected, the situation is not dangerous. The trajectory is outside the attractor, the probability of an earthquake equal to zero. For people and tourists a favorable situation for at least the next years. All resorts Morocco, Western and SW Spain, Portugal seismically safe from earthquakes with Ms≥6.2, causing major damage and casualties. It will be recalled that the Atlantic Ocean coastal cities of these countries may be subject to tsunamis from the ocean earthquakes (see Predictions AZORES ...). |
PK=0% PW=0% Ð=0% |
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| ALGERIA-East SPAIN Ìs≥6.2 | ||
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Earthquakes with Ìs≥6.2 is not expected, the situation is not dangerous. In the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 we predicted: "To the middle of 2011 in system earthquake-indicators with mb=5.0-5.7 are expected". Recent earthquake refers to such earthquake-indicators in the southeast of Spain on May, 11th 2011, mb=5.3 also. From earthquake 10 people were lost, there were numerous destructions in a city Lorca (Lorca area). A victim and destruction have occurred because of small depth of seismic source (1 km). For the forecast of such earthquakes-indicators it is necessary to lower threshold magnitude and to do monitoring in subsystems. The retrospective analysis shows that earthquake could be predicted with high accuracy in subsystem SE Spain with threshold magnitude Ì=5.0. Danger has sharply increased in subsystem after earthquake-indicator from November 4, 2010, Ì=4.1. At interest of Spain, we can create system of monitoring and the forecast for all territory of Spain with M>5.0 and to provide safety of people. Forecast. Now the trajectory of preparation earthquake with Ì≥6.2 comes nearer to attractor, the probability of earthquake begin to increase. The trajectory tends to develop under the scenario of the most destructive earthquake of Algeria (El Asnam) 1980, Ì=7.7. Òðåêòîðèÿ tends to rise, therefore in system earthquake-indicators with mb=5.0-5.7 are expected. For the population and tourists a situation favorable at least the next two years. All resorts SE of Spain, islands Malorka, Menorka and Ibiza are seismically safe from earthquakes with Ìs≥6.2, causing the basic destructions and a victim. We will remind that coastal earthquakes in the north of Algeria can excite (to 2) tsunami waves on southern coast of resort islands Malorka, Menorka and Ibiza! Such waves can cause damages to yachts, boats on coastal parking of these islands. |
PK=3.4% PW=1.3% Ð=0.05% |
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| Eastern TURKEY Ìs≥6.6 | ||
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À.
Forecast of
mega earthquakes
with
Ìs≥7.8.
Preparation of strong earthquake which we predicted and expected in
SS Armenian Upland in 2010 has outgrown in
preparation mega earthquakes which now we will predict in Mega
SS Anatoly Ìs≥7.8. Results of monitoring and the
mega-earthquake forecast in Anatolia are
resulted in the Communication
from May 31, 2011.
Dangerously on east segment of the North
Anatolian
Fault between meridians
35-40º where catastrophic earthquake with Ìs=7.9 is already prepared.
Earthquake should occur till the end of 2012. Probability of
earthquake the high. |
PK=95% PW=98% Ð=94% |
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| ARMENIA.Artsach,the adjacent regions of TURKEY, GEORGIA and AZERBAIJAN. 6.2≤Ìs<6.6 | ||
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Earthquakes with Ms≥6.2 is not yet expected, since there was a deficit of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes, but the situation is very unstable. The trajectory is the attractor, but below the zone of instability. The probability of an earthquake on entropy is high, and the cumulative energy is small. While expected activization of earthquakes-indicators in system has not occurred, therefore the situation essentially has not changed. Activization of moderate earthquakes with 5.0<M<5.6 is expected. Activization of such earthquakes will raise a track and can initiate earthquake with Ì=6.3 in the south of Georgia. The unstable situation is located near to Rustavi (Georgia). The situation will definitively be resolved till the end of 2012. If earthquakes-indicators do not occur, in system there will be an atypical earthquake with Ì=6.2. |
PK=3% PW=34% Ð=1% |
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| EASTERN CAUCASUS. Ingushetia,Chechnya,Dagestan,Osetia,easth GEORGIA,north AZERBAIJAN. Ìs≥5.8 | ||
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À. Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥6.3. Earthquakes with Ms≥6.3 is not expected. Trajectory is located in the attractor. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from the September 17, 2010, essential activity it was not observed. The track developed only at the expense of static growth of entropy. Such situation can remain till the end of 2016. Potential danger (Ì=6.3) remains in coastal to Azerbaijan and Dagestan areas in Caspian sea. The probability of earthquake here with depth of source 40 km high enough, but is available deficiency of energy of earthquake-indicators. If there will be no essential activity of earthquakes-indicators that earthquake here will be prepared for the end 2016, otherwise danger to move to other areas of system. Monitoring in a subsystem (see more low) shows that there will be an earthquake with 5.8≤Ìs<6.3 and the situation will change. The probability of earthquake for 9 months has increased on 1 %, on entropy on 3 %. Â. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Ìs<6.3. The trajectory is in attractor and has the maximum values of cumulative energy and entropy. The situation in system very dangerous and till the end of 2011 will occur earthquake with 5.8≤Ìs<6.3. Most dangerously in Caspian sea to the north of Apsheron p-la (Azerbaijan). Earthquake with Ìs=6.1÷6.2, depth of 35 km here can be prepared. Such earthquake will not represent the big danger to the population of coastal zones of Azerbaijan. Are potentially dangerous also a coastal zone of Dagestan to the north of Derbent and NE Georgia. The probability of earthquake in system high and equal to Ð=75% (PK=85%, PW=88%). After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010, the probability of earthquake has increased by 2%, on entropy on 3%. |
PK=37% PW=45% Ð=17%
PK=85% PW=88% Ð=75%
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| Central CASPIAN SEA Ìs≥6.2 | ||
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Earthquakes with Ìs≥6.2 is not expected. The probability of earthquake on entropy is high (increased by 3%), and on cumulative energy is zero. There is a scarcity of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators. Are expected earthquakes from M=5.0-5.3 the not represented dangers. It is seismically quiet on the Apsheron peninsula (Azerbaijan). To the inhabitants of Baku and other populated areas of Apsheron peninsula strong earthquake from Ìs≥6.2 does not threaten. |
PK=0% PW=30% Ð=0% |
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| KRASNODAR KRAY (RF)-CRIMEA (UKR), Abkhaziya, western GEORGIA Ìs≥5.5 | ||
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Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥5.5. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010, in system (the western Georgia) on January, 19th 2011 there was an earthquake-indicator with Ì=5.2 therefore probability has increased a little. Earthquakes with Ìs≥5.5 are not expected. Inhabitants and having a rest Crimea the next years can be quiet - seismic danger does not threaten them. In Black Sea Coast (Krasnodar Kray, Abkhaziya, the northwest of Georgia) and on resorts Kislovodsk, Pyatigorsk, Essentuki a seismic situation favorable while strong earthquake with Ìs≥5.5 does not threaten them. We will remind that weaker earthquakes from M <5.5 which also are sensitive and can cause local destructions is not predicted yet. |
PK=3% PW=0.5% Ð=0.02% |
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| TURKMENISTAN West Ìs≥5.6 | ||
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À. Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥6.2. Earthquakes with Ms≥6.2 is not expected. Seismic situation is safe but unstable. There is a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. Are expected earthquakes from M=5.0-5.2 the not represented dangers. Potentially dangerous zone NE from Turkmenbashi to the end 2012 (M6.2). Residents of the cities of Turkmenbashi, Nebitdag, Gumdag of Turkmenistan and others in the area controlled by a strong earthquake with Ms≥6.2 is not threatened, however not less dangerous earthquake with Ì=6.1 is expected (see item B). The capital of Ashgabad is controlled in SS Iran NE (see below). Â. Forecast earthquakes with 5.6≤Ìs<6.2. In system it is dangerous, the situation unstable, is expected earthquake with Ì=6.1. There is a deficiency energy of earthquake-indicators, equal to energy of earthquake with mb=5.4-5.5. Probability of strong earthquake on entropy very high, and on cumulative energy the low. Most likely expected earthquake will be trigger or will have strong aftershock. Now dangerously in area Turkmenbashi. Within a year danger will migrate from Turkmenbashi to SE, towards Nebitdaga. |
PK=6% PW=10% Ð=0.6%
PK=2% PW=60.7% Ð=1.3% |
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| IRAN North-West, NE Irak Ìs≥5.8 (monitoring is from 1995) | ||
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À. Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥6.2. Earthquakes with Ìs≥6.2 is not expected. Seismic situation is safe, but is unstable. There is a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. After the publication of Bulletin 003 dated September 17, 2010, occurred only static increase in the entropy, probability on the entropy grew by 3%.
Â. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Ìs<6.2. Track is located in the attractor. The probability of earthquake high, a situation while steady, but by the end of the year danger will increase. Potentially dangerously by 2012 in a frontier zone with Iraq in the west of a province Kurdistan (Ì5.8) and in the south of a province of Zanjan (Ì5.9), and also on NE Iraq (Ì5.8). |
PK=0% PW=16% Ð=0% PK=57%PW=69% Ð=39% |
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| IRAN North-East, Turkmenistan South, Ìs≥5.8 (monitoring is from 1995) | ||
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À.
Forecast earthquakes
with
Ìs≥6.2.
Seismic
situation unstable.
Very
dangerously in the south of Caspian sea in a province of Mazandaran.
Here, on a North Alborz Fault can be prepared earthquake with Ì=6.4.
At relative seismic gap in first half of 2012 it will be dangerous
in the north, the northeast from Teheran of 30 km, in area Musha
Fault, Ì=6.4. In Teheran influence from such earthquake can reach
VI-VII balls.
Strong earthquake with Ìs≥6.2 does not threaten inhabitants of
capital of Turkmenistan Ashgabad. |
PK=11% PW=15% Ð=2% PK=22% PW=58% Ð=13% |
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| IRAN West, South. U.A.Emirates Ìs≥6.0 | ||
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Â.
West of Iran.
Forecast earthquakes
with
6.2≤Ìs<6.6.
The track is in attractor,
there is a weak deficiency of earthquake-indicators energy.
The next
years it will be dangerous in a province of Fars, in a zone the
located 100-120 km to the west,
north-west
from Shiraz, earthquake with Ì=6.2 here is prepared.
Seismic activization can be a harbinger of such earthquake. Final
date of realisation September, 2013. After publication of the
Bulletin
003 from September 17,
2010
probability of earthquake has increased on
16%
(on entropy on
14%,
and on cumulative energy on
10%)! |
PK=82% PW=22% Ð=18%
PK=65% PW=66% Ð=49%
PK=14.5% PW=1.2% Ð=0.2% |
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| IRAN Central,East,South-East Ìs≥5.7 | ||
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À.
Forecast earthquakes
with
Ìs≥6.7.
After
publication of the
Bulletin
003 from September 17, 2010
in system there were two earthquake-indicators with Ì=6.4 and 6.0
(see Communication from December 24,
2010). The track has sharply jumped upwards and with surplus has
filled shortage of energy. The situation from the unstable has
outgrown in the steady. In system there has come seismic calm to the
middle 2013. Preparation of earthquake with
Ì=7.2-7.4
will gradually move to the east of a province Khorasan.
Till the
end of 2014 there can be an atypical strong earthquake with Ì=7.2 in
northern, northwest part of a province Khorasan. Potentially
dangerously in the east of Baluchistan.
After publication of the
Bulletin
003 from September 17, 2010,
because of the above-stated seismic activity, the probability of
earthquake has increased on
18%
(on entropy on
4%
and on cumulative energy has increased on
19%)!
Earthquakes of moderate force with 5.7<M<6.7 the big danger to the
population, but to this system them yet we do not predict, except
the central Iran (a province Kerman and Yazd). |
PK=88% PW=83% Ð=73%
PK=0% PW=0% Ð=0%
PK=0% PW=0% Ð=0% |
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| SACHALIN, Russia Ìs≥5.6. | ||
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À.
Forecast earthquakes
with
Ìs≥6.4.
Earthquakes with Ìs≥6.4 are not expected. The
next years on Sakhalin there will be a seismic calm, in system there
can be only earthquakes
with
M<5.6. The probability of
strong earthquake in Sakhalin on entropy is low, and on cumulative
energy - high. There is a surplus of the
allocated seismic energy and deficiency of entropy. It means that
there is a preparation of strong earthquake, but on time yet has not
ripened. Following strong earthquake with Ms>6.4 on Sakhalin is
excluded till 2018. After publication of the
Bulletin 003 from September 17,
2010 probability of earthquake has increased on
5% (on entropy on
5%). Potentially dangerously in the
north of Sakhalin. |
PK=82% PW=53% Ð=44%
PK=18% PW=18% Ð=3%
|
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| KORYAK, Russia Ìs≥7.5 | ||
|
Earthquakes from Ms≥7.5 are not expected at least until 2017. After the publication of the Bulletin of 003 substantial changes did not occur. SS Koryak it relates to the systems, where in the historical past strong earthquake was not observed or there was not a information about them. In such cases for the analysis of the zones of instability on the energy and track diagrams we draw information about zones of the instability of close ones in the threshold magnitude and tectonics of seismic systems from other regions (it is utilized the property of self-similarity SS). In particular, for Koryak we used information from the seismic systems of Turkmenistan and South California. We thus far here have a realization only of one strong earthquake - Koryak, 20.04.2006, M7.8. |
PK=0% PW=2% Ð=0% |
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| KAMCHATKA-North KURILES, Russia Ìs≥6.9 | ||
|
À.
Forecast earthquakes
with
Ìs≥8.4.
In the
Bulletin 003 from September 17,
2010
we did monitoring and the forecast of strong earthquakes of
Kamchatka with Ìs≥7.8. In 1952 there was a catastrophic earthquake
with Ì=9.0 at ocean near to a southern extremity of the Kamchatka
peninsula, Russia. The tsunami formed at it (the height of waves
reached 13÷18ì) has almost completely destroyed Severo-Kurilsk (island
of Paramushir) and has brought to ruin more than 2 thousand persons.
In the
Communication
from May 31,
2011
the mega-earthquake forecast for Kamchatka with
Ìs≥8.4 is resulted. There it is
specified that at seismic calm entropy will reach a hypothetical
zone of instability by the end of 2016.
Earthquake with Ì=8.7 by then can be
prepared. At activization of earthquake-indicators the situation can
change. Probability of earthquake high, but situation
not
yet dangerous. Forecast earthquakes with 6.9≤Ìs<7.8. Earthquakes of moderate force with 6.9<M<7.5 are expected. Nonspecific development of a track is observed, there is an essential deficiency of the allocated of earthquake-indicators energy. Earthquake on February 02, 2011, Ì=5.9 to the south of Ust Kamchatsk has a little filled shortage and has raised a track but while not enough. On a joint of the Kamchatka arch and Aleutian trench the situation continues to remain unstable, but after earthquake has a little changed. Now the oceanic zone joint of the Kamchatka arch and Aleutian trench becomes the most dangerous, and earthquake-indicators with 6.4<M<6.9 are expected in east part of Kamchatka around the Kronotsky gulf. To the northern of Lat. 58˚ earthquakes with 6.9 are not expected. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 probability of earthquake has increased on 2% (on entropy on 1% and on cumulative energy has increased on 2%). D. South of Kamchatka. Forecast earthquakes with 6.9≤Ìs<7.8. The track continues develops under the scenario close to preparation of earthquake of 1946 in the southeast of Kamchatka. The track has no deficiency of energy of earthquake-indicators. The next 6 months the track will be in a dangerous, unstable zone. The most dangerous still has a coastal zone to the south of Petropavlovsk Kamchatk on 100 km where earthquake with Ì6.9-7.2 can be prepared. Potentially dangerously in the south of system in northern Kuriles. In the southeast from Kamchatka strong earthquake-indicators with Ì=6.6-6.8 are possible. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 probability of earthquake has increased on 2% (on entropy on 3% and on cumulative energy has increased on 5%). |
PK=93% PW=81% Ð=75%
PK=21% PW=18% Ð=4%
North PK=76% PW=88% Ð=67%
South PK=65% PW=75% Ð=49% |
|
| The central KURILES, Russia Ìs≥6.9 | ||
|
À. Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥7.8. Earthquakes with Ìs≥7.8 are not expected. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 in SS Central Kuriles sensitive earthquake-indicators did not occur, therefore results of the forecast essentially have not changed. The probability of strong earthquake P=0.2% (Pk=17%, Pw=2%).
Â.
Forecast earthquakes
with
7.3≤Ìs<7.8.
Earthquakes with Ìs≥7.3 are not
expected but track approaches to attractor.
There is a
deficiency of energy of earthquakes-indicators. At activization of
earthquake-indicators, in 2011 in system it can be dangerous.
At least
till the end of 2011 in system there will be one earthquake with
Ì=6.2.
The probability of strong earthquake begins to grow
Ð=0.4%
(PK=5%, PW=8%).
Probability growth occurred because of static manufacture of
entropy.
|
PK=17% PW=2% Ð=0.3%
PK=5% PW=8% Ð=0.4%
PK=3% PW=5% Ð=0.1%
|
|
| Southern KURILES (Russia) - HOKKAIDO (Japan) Ìs≥7.8 | ||
|
Earthquakes with Ìs≥7.8 is not expected. The trajectory is the attractor, but there is a shortage of cumulative energy of indicator-earthquakes. Track continues to be developed on the scenario of the close to the preparation of Tokachi Oki earthquake on September 25, 2003. In the coming years will be an earthquake of 6.0<M<7.0. Potential hazards of the zone in the south-east of Hokkaido and east of Iturup. Here can be prepared strong earthquake from M=8.2-8.3 toward the end 2011 by the depth 45 km. So that the track would fall into the zone of instability the scarcity of energy it was equal to energy of earthquake from M=7.0. Very much the high probability that in system will occur earthquake-indicator with Ì=7.2. Recall that the earthquake with 5.5<M<7.8 in the system are not controlled. Residents of Hokkaido and the South Kurile islands can be calm, while the risk of strong earthquakes with Ms≥7.4, which can cause noticeable damage and destruction, they are not threatened. |
PK=15% PW=34% Ð=5% |
|
| JAPAN, Islands of Honshu, Shikoku, Kyushu Ìs≥7.8 | ||
|
À. Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥8.4. Monitoring and forecast catastrophic earthquake in Japan with M≥7.8 which we spent on our site since 2008, has outgrown in mega-earthquake Tohoku, on March 11, 2011 with Ì=9.0. The detailed description is resulted in the Communication from March 21, 2011. Earthquake, basically, has discharged Mega SS Japan. In mega system in source zone of earthquake Tohoku proceeds aftershocks activity which finishes a discharge. We do not supervise this process, in spite of the fact that from time to time it is accompanied by strong aftershocks with Ì=6.6-7.1. As earthquake was very strong and aftershocks process will proceed still for a long time. When will end aftershocks process and preparation of a new, independent seismic cycle will begin, or they will occur in parallel now difficultly to define. In process of the further monitoring in everyone SS for the north of Honshu this question will be specially stipulated and solved. We still do not have sufficient experience to predict strong aftershocks which appear periodically on background decaying aftershocks activity. It is not excluded that preparation strong aftershocks by means of weaks in a miniature repeats processes in SS. But, obviouly, that physics of aftershock processes other, they occur in rather short time intervals when entropy has not yet time to grow and them attractors are in other areas of track diagrammes. Taking into account above, the further monitoring in SS the north of Honshu we will do with the account aftershocks and special reservations. Now strong mega-earthquakes with Ìs≥8.4 are not expected. Probability of mega-earthquake with the account aftershocks P=1% (Pk=11%, Pw=9%). B. Forecast earthquakes with 7.8≤Ms<8.4. Monitoring of catastrophic earthquake with Ì≥7.8 on the NE from Honshu which was spent from the beginning of 2008 on our site in ON Line mode, has come to the end on March 11 with mega-accident. Two days prior to mega-accident on March 9, 2011 there was the strongest earthquake-indicator for last 7 years in SS Japan which forced events (see the Communication from March 21, 2011). Earthquake has completely discharged SS Japan. Now strong earthquakes with Ìs≥7.8 are not expected. But the account strong aftershocks activity after earthquake Tohoku, on March 11, 2011 in a miniature can repeat processes in SS and prepare catastrophic earthquake with Ì=7.8. Therefore the further monitoring we will spend taking into account this circumstance. Taking into account strong aftershock activity, strong earthquake in SS Japan with Ì=7.8 can be prepared in first half of 2013. Most likely the epicentre will be in island part SW Honshu or in the east of Kyushu. Now, because of aftershock activity, probability on cumulative energy high Pk=25 %. |
PK=11% PW=9% Ð=1%
PK=25% PW=0.6% Ð=0.1%
|
|
| JAPAN, Central Honshu, Tokyo District Ìs≥6.4 | ||
|
À.
Forecast earthquakes
with
7.1≤Ms<7.8.
Afershocks of Tohoku earthquake
essentially have not affected on system
Central Honshu and have not discharged it. Unique
strong aftershock from April 11,
2011 (to the east of Boso peninsula)
with Ì=6.3 has got in SS Central
Honshu. Seismic processes here continue to develop
under former scenarios. The track has high values of cumulative
energy of earthquake-indicators at rather small values of entropy.
Till 2017 in system strong earthquake with 7.1≤Ms<7.8 is not
expected, the relative seismic calm will be observed.
After publication of the
Bulletin 003 from September 17,
2010 probability of earthquake has increased on
2%
(on entropy on
3%,
on cumulative energy on
1%).
Despite high values of probability, a situation in area Tokyo the
steady.
Ñ. East coast of central Honshu, Greater Tokyo area. Forecast earthquakes with 6.4≤Ìs<7.1. Àôòåðøîê from April 11, 2011 (to the east of Boso peninsula), with Ì=6.3 we have accepted in this subsystem as earthquake-indicator. Because of it the probability of strong earthquake has sharply jumped up Ð=17% (PK=26%, PW=63%). In subsystem there will be some time seismic calm till November 2011. In November-December 2011 in the west of Boso peninsula can earthquake with Ì=6.9 is prepared. |
PK=69% PW=64% Ð=44%
Ð=0%
PK=63% PW=26% Ð=17% |
|
| JAPAN, North Honshu (from Pref. Ibaraki to Hokkaido) 6.6≤Ìs<7.8 | ||
|
À.
Forecast earthquakes
with
7.4≤Ms<7.8.
This system almost completely
covered
source area of
earthquake Tohoku. But despite this it
partially was responsible for mega-earthquake preparation.
Preparation of earthquake Tohoku occurred in Mega system, and
SS North of Honshu completely
was responsible for preparation trigger foreshock
from March 9, 2011, Ì=7.7 (see the
Communication
from March 21,
2011).
After trigger foreshock two days prior to
accident the system North of Honshu was completely discharged for
manufacture of "smaller" earthquakes with
7.4≤Ms<7.8 and
consolidated as a unit for mega-accident manufacture.
Now the probability of earthquake with 7.4≤Ms<7.8 without strong
aftershocks
of Tohoku, is equal to zero
P=0%.
But we will consider the worst variant and to do monitoring taking
into account strong
aftershocks,
including aftershock from July 19,
2011, Ì=7.1. The probability of earthquake after March 2011 has
increased to
P=9% (Pk=62%, Pw=14%).
Despite it, earthquakes with 7.4≤Ms<7.8
are not yet expected. |
PK=62% PW=14% Ð=9%
Ð=0%
Ð=0% |
|
| JAPAN, South-West of Honshu, Shikoku, Kyushu Ìs≥6.7 | ||
|
À.
Forecast earthquakes
with
7.4≤Ms<7.8.
On the
preparation of
earthquakes with
7.4≤Ms<7.8 in SS
SW Honshu
mega-earthquake Tohoku essentially has not affected. Nonspecific
development of a track proceeds, there is a big deficiency of the
allocated
energy. A situation very unstable. After
publication of the Bulletin 003 from September
17,
2010 in system occurred only static entropy manufactures.
If sensitive seismic activity
from M<7.4 is not, till the end of 2011 there will be an atypical
earthquake with Ì=7.4, or to the south from
Honshu on 100 km in Pacific ocean, or in a coastal zone in the east
from Kyushu. Ñ. Kyushu. Forecast earthquakes with 6.7≤Ms<7.4. The situation has not changes. Here, not far from the coast in the east from Kyushu occurs preparation earthquake from M6.8. In the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 we predicted that such earthquake will occur to the middle of 2011. Now this forecast is not removed, but is extended to the realisation of the event. Probability of strong earthquake high P=61%. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 probability has increased on 2% (on entropy on 2%). |
PK=14% PW=38% Ð=5%
PK=0.3% PW=0.9% Ð=0%
PK=69% PW=88% Ð=61% |
|
| TAIWAN, South-West of Ryukyu Is.,Japan Ìs≥7.7 | ||
|
Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥7.7. After specification of the catalogue of earthquakes results of the forecast in this system have been reconsidered. The trajectory has the maximum values of cumulative energy and great values of entropy. In comparison with the previous forecast from the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010, probability of earthquake has essentialy increased, danger moves towards ocean, but on time comes nearer. A situation in system very dangerous, strong earthquake with Ì=8.0 and depth of the source to 33 km is prepared. It will be as much as possible dangerous from the end of 2011 till May 2012. Dangerously will be in an extended oceanic zone of 50 km to the east from the central and southern Taiwan. Earthquake can cause strong waves of a tsunami. It will be dangerous all coastal zone in the east of Taiwan. Probability of strong earthquake in system very high P=71% (on cumulative energy Pk=97%, on entropy Pw=74%). Southwest from Is. Ryukyu (Japan) strong earthquakes from H<80 km are not expected. |
PK=97% PW=74% Ð=71% |
|
| TAIWAN, South-West of Ryukyu Is.,Japan Ìs≥6.6 | ||
|
À.
Forecast earthquakes
with
7.4≤Ms<7.7.
After
specification of the catalogue of earthquakes results of the
forecast in this system have been reconsidered. Because of seismic
activity of earthquake-indicators the track is above area of
instability of earthquakes with Ì=7.4 to the east from Taiwan and
has bypassed area of instability of earthquake on September 20,
1999, Ì=7.7 (Chi-Chi). The Next years earthquakes with
7.4≤Ms<7.7,
are not expected.
There is
above-mentioned preparation of strong earthquake with Ì=8.0.
Probability of strong earthquake on energy of high
80%,
and on entropy of rather low
66%). |
PK=80% PW=66% Ð=53%
PK=67% PW=53% Ð=36%
PK=67% PW=83% Ð=56%
PK=38% PW=24% Ð=9% |
|
| BIRMA Microplate - Northern SUMATRA (INDONESIA),Andaman-Nikobar Islands (INDIA),THAILAND,MYANMAR, Ìs≥7.8 | ||
|
Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥7.8. The situation in system yet not dangerous, a track has surplus of earthquake-indicators energy. Because of seismic activity in 2010 the dangerous period has a little kept away. At relative seismic calm, a track to come nearer to a dangerous zone to the middle of 2014. Strong earthquake with Ìs=8.5 can be prepared in 2014 around the Andaman islands, Port Blair, India. The probability of earthquake in system after publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 has grown on 11% (by cumulative energy on 1%, by entropy on 4%), but a situation in system while the stable. The next years catastrophic earthquake in this system, like Nikobar 2004, and also the tsunami from it does not threaten, however not less dangerous moderate earthquakes with Ms<7.8 are possible. We will notice that in bay of Bengal the tsunami dangerous mega-earthquake (see the Communication from May 31, 2011) prepares. Inhabitants of the coastal countries of Bengal Bay should be vigilant. Watch messages on our site. |
PK=58% PW=44% Ð=26% |
|
| BIRMA Microplate - Northern SUMATRA (INDONESIA),Andaman-Nikobar Islands (INDIA),THAILAND,MYANMAR, Ìs≥6.6 | ||
|
À.
Forecast earthquakes
with
7.0≤Ms<7.8.
After
publication of the
Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 the new
cycle of preparation strong earthquake has begun. In system there
was an activity concerning weak earthquake-indicators with 5.0≤Ìs<6.0, the probability began to increase.
The track has started to
develop under the scenario close to preparation of earthquake
1941 near the Andaman islands with Ì=8.7. It confirms the
above-stated forecast of preparation strong earthquake in system
with Ìs≥7.8.
To inhabitants of the coastal countries of the north of
Indian ocean Myanmar, Thailand, Bangladesh and Nikobar-Andaman
(India) islands the next years is necessary to be vigilant and to
watch messages. |
PK=12% PW=16% Ð=2%
PK=17% PW=9% Ð=1%
PK=7% PW=8% Ð=0.6%
PK=84% PW=95% Ð=90% |
|
| SUMATRA, Indonesia. Ìs≥7.8 | ||
|
Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥7.8. In September in Bulletin 003 we forecast, that the potential danger remains in the West from Sumatra, in the region Of the Mentavay -Siberut islands and Sipura, also, in the coastal zones of Padang, and that the nearest danger will be here from November 2010 to January 2011, when track will cross the region of instability. By October 25, 2010 track close approached the zone of the instability of the catastrophic earthquake of 2007 and in the West of Sumatra, in the region of Pagay-Selatan island, it occurred earthquake-indicator from M=7.3, which raised track and somewhat removed it from the zone of instability (see Communication dated October 28, 2010). At the beginning of 2011 the track crossed the region of the instability of attractor, between the strong earthquakes 2007 and 2005 yr. Now the track was somewhat removed from this region of instability. Now track can fall into the hazardous zone of catastrophic earthquakes from Ms≥8.1 in the region of the islands of Mentavay - Sipura, Pagay Utara after the making more active of earthquake-indicators. Since September 2010 the probability of strong earthquake grew by 3% (on the entropy by 6%). |
PK=49% PW=31% Ð=15% |
|
| SUMATRA, Indonesia. Ìs≥7.0 | ||
|
À.
Subsystem North of Sumatra.
Forecast earthquakes
with
7.3≤Ms<7.8.
After publication of the
Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010
on border of Northern and Southern subsystems on October 25, 2010
there was a strong earthquake to magnitude near to threshold Ì=7.3.
On distribution àôòåðøîêîâ and on energy we have ranked it as
earthquake-indicators of northern subsystem of Sumatra (see
Communication dated
October 28, 2010).
This earthquake has occurred near the point of instability of 2007
earthquake and has sharply raised a track.
Now the track will come nearer to instability
area after one year, in second half of 2012.
But earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8 are not expected, and
there is a preparation above-mentioned
catastrophic earthquake with Ìs≥8.1 in the region of islands
Mentavay - Sipura, Pagay Utara.
Probability of earthquake with Ìs≥8.1 high
P=47 %.
D.
Subsystem South of Sumatra.
Forecast earthquakes
with
7.0≤Ms<7.3.
The track has rather high values of earthquake-indicators
energy
and is above
attractor. The track will come nearer to
attractor
at
2016. Before this earthquake with 7.0≤Ms<7.3 are not expected. In
subsystem not less dangerous moderate earthquakes with Ì6.5-6.9 are
possible. Despite high probability P=22%
(Pk=69%, Pw=31%)
a situation in a subsystem not the dangerous |
PK=84% PW=56% Ð=47%
PK=4% PW=3% Ð=0.1%
PK=53% PW=22% Ð=12%
PK=69% PW=31% Ð=22% |
|
| JAVA (Indonesia). Ìs≥7.8 | ||
|
Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥7.8. Situation in the system is not dangerous. There is a scarcity of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators. Strong earthquakes from Ms>7.8 within the next few years are not expected. Potentially dangerous can be the southwest of Java toward the end 2013. To inhabitants of island Java and Bali within the next few years catastrophic earthquake from Ms>7.8 and tsunami from the local earthquakes does not threaten. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 probability has increased a little. |
PK=8% PW=2% Ð=0.2% |
|
| JAVA (Indonesia). Ìs≥6.6 | ||
|
Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.8. Earthquakes from 6.6<M<7.8 in the next 2 years are not expected. Situation in the system is not dangerous. Trajectory approaches an attractor. In the mainland part of Java strong earthquake from Ìs≥6.6 within the next few years is excluded, besides western extremity. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 probability has increased on 4% (on energy by 5%, on entropy by 12%). To inhabitants of island Java and Bali in the next 2 years strong earthquake from Ms>6.6 and tsunami does not threaten. |
PK=32% PW=19% Ð=6% |
|
| JAVA (Indonesia). Ìs≥5.8 | ||
|
À. Subsystem West of Java. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Ms<6.6. Subsystems according to the sizes are small, they control Java island in the East and the West and 100 km coastal part south of Java. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 in a subsystem the island West Java there were earthquakes-indicators with Ì5.0-5.6. At the expense of it the probability has increased on 11% (on energy by 4%, on entropy by 23%)! But earthquake with 5.8≤Ms<6.6 are not expected yet. Â. Subsystem East of Java. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Ms<6.6. In the east Java situation steady, there is no seismic danger until 2014. To the inhabitants of islands Java and Bali within the framework controlled region strong earthquake from 5.8≤Ìs<6.6 (to the similarity of earthquake Yogyakarta 2006) does not threaten. The track has high values of energy and the next years will be observed, basically, static growth of entropy. |
PK=49% PW=35% Ð=17%
PK=18% PW=0% Ð=0% |
|
| MOZAMBIQUE (Africa). Ìs≥5.8 | ||
|
À. Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥6.9. Situation in system is not dangerous. Strong earthquake from Ìs≥6.9 within the next few years is excluded. The inhabitants of Mozambique within the next few years strong earthquake to the similarity of earthquake dated February 22, 2006, M7.2 does not threaten.
Â. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Ìs<6.9. Thus far situation is not dangerous. In spite of small probability, the stored energy of earthquake- indicators is sufficient for the preparation of earthquake from M=5.8. |
PK=7% PW=2% Ð=0.2% PK=0.02% PW=0.01% Ð=0% |
|
| MALAWI, Zambia,Tanzania,D.R.Congo, Burundi (Africa), Ìs≥5.8 (monitoring is from February 1, 2010) | ||
|
À. Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥6.2. In spite of high probability situation in system is not dangerous. Track with the low values of entropy has the high value of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators. This means that strong earthquake from Ms>6.2 within the next few years are excluded. By 2017 potentially dangerously there can be in the east of D.R. Congo. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 probability has increased on 11% (on entropy by 12%). Â. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Ìs<6.2. The earthquakes of the moderate force are not expected, their probability is equal to zero P=0%. |
PK=91% PW=63% Ð=57% |
|
| PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN. Ìs≥6.6 | ||
|
Forecast earthquakes
with
Ìs≥6.6.
There are no changes. Situation in
system is not dangerous. Strong earthquake from
Ì≥6.6,
H<90 km
in Afghanistan and Pakistan is not expected.
After publication of the Bulletin 003
from September 17, 2010 on SW Pakistan,
in Baluchistan, on January 18, 2011 there was a strong earthquake
with Ì=7.2. This earthquake has occurred out of seismic systems (see
the Communication from January 20, 2011). |
PK=0% PW=0% Ð=0%
|
|
| TIBET. India,China,Nepal,Bhutan,Bangladesh. Ìs≥7.5 | ||
|
Forecast
mega-earthquakes
with
Ìs≥8.4.
After mega-earthquake Tohoku in Japan on March 11,
2011 we have included monitoring and the mega-earthquake forecast in
SS Tibet. These earthquakes
are such earthquakes in Assam on NE
India 1897, Ì=8.7 and 1950, Ì=8.6. To calculate the
probability of mega-earthquake statistics
is not enough. The track has high values of
co-ordinates: on energy K=17.527, and on entropy W=20.002. For
comparison the same co-ordinates for earthquake of 1950 are equal:
on energy K=17.777, and on entropy W=20.241. On a track
configuration it is possible to conclude that
the next two years the situation on
NE
India can become critical. Zone Assam also is supervised in
SS Myanma (see more low).
Â.
Forecast earthquakes
with
7.5≤Ms<7.8.
Track is
located in the attractor.
Activization of earthquake-indicators with 6.0<M<7.0 is expected. If
till the end of 2011 of such activization will not occur, on NE
Tibet atypical strong earthquake can be prepared.
After publication of the
Bulletin
003 from September 17, 2010
probability of strong earthquake has increased on
4%,
by entropy on
10%. Ñ. Subsystem West of Tibet. Forecast earthquakes with 7.5≤Ms<7.8. This subsystem contains the Himalayas and western Tibet. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 probability of strong earthquake has increased on 2%, by entropy on 3%. The probability of earthquake is increased by 41% (72%, 57%). Track will approach the zone of instability to middle 2012. Potentially dangerously there can be north of Bhutan in Tibet, near Lhasa (China), where can be prepared earthquake from M=7.6
D. Subsystem East of Tibet. Forecast earthquakes with 7.5≤Ms<7.8. Subsystem includes East Tibet. Track approaches an attractor. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 probability of strong earthquake has increased on 0.8%, by entropy on 4%. In subsystem the next few years it is not dangerous.
E.
Subsystem
North of Tibet.
Forecast earthquakes
with
7.5≤Ms<7.8.
Now in a subsystem it is not dangerous, activization of
earthquakes with moderate magnitude is expected. At activization of
earthquake-indicators by 2014 be potentially dangerous can on Kunlun
Fault in the central part of Tibet. After publication of the
Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010
probability of strong earthquake has increased on
0.7%, by entropy on
5%.
F.
Subsystem
South of Tibet, Himalayas.
Forecast earthquakes
with
7.5≤Ms<7.8.
After
publication of the
Bulletin 003 from
September 17, 2010
borders of a subsystem have been specified therefore probabilities
have changed a little.
Probabilities on former
very high. Dangerously in the east of Butane Ì=7.7, it is
potentially dangerous in the west and the east of Nepal, Ì=7.5.
The track configuration confirms preparation of strong
mega-earthquake on NE India. The retrospective forecast of last devastating earthquake in this system dated May 12, 2008 in China, Sychuan you can view in Bulletin 001. |
PK=0.09% PW=1% Ð=0%
PK=40% PW=26% Ð=10%
PK=72% PW=57% Ð=41%
PK=22% PW=5% Ð=1%
PK=14% PW=8% Ð=1%
PK=80% PW=80% Ð=64%
|
|
| MYANMAR. China (South),India(East),Bangladesh. Ìs≥7.0 | ||
|
Region on the northeast Bay of Bengal (the bounding area of Myanmar with India, China and Bangladesh) we investigated in detail, since the seismologists count this region potentially dangerous for giant tsunamigenic earthquakes. Such earthquake and tsunami in the coastal zone of Myanmar to the scales of possible human victims and material losses can exceed Nicobar earthquake dated December 26, 2004. Here we have revealed two seismic systems Western (coastal area, Arakan) and Eastern Myanmar (Shan plateau), demarcated by fault of Sagaing, is refined the boundary of Burma micro-plate in the south.
Mega
SS
Myanmar.
Forecast earthquakes
with
Ìs≥8.4.
After
mega-earthquake Tohoku in Japan on March 11,
2011 we have included monitoring and the mega-earthquake forecast in
the northeast of Bengal Bay (see
the
Communication from May 31,
2011). There
it is shown that till the end of 2012 on
NE Bay
of Bengal there can be a catastrophic earthquake with Ì=8.8 and a
powerful tsunami.
Â. Subsystem
Western Myanmar.
Forecast earthquakes
with
Ìs≥7.8.
After publication of the
Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010
in this subsystem specifications have been spent, therefore results
of the forecast have changed. In SS
Western Myanmar strong earthquake with Ìs≥7.8 is prepared, but it is
not obviously possible to estimate time.
Probability of earthquake very high. Danger in
a continental part of Arakan of the subduction zones Burma, in a
meridian north–south trending zone of Kaladan and Kabaw Faults and
the mechanism of the source described earlier remains. However the
magnitude of earthquakes expected here will be near to threshold
7.8, but a little it is less. And preparation of strong earthquake
with Ìs≥7.8 passes in preparation mega
earthquakes with Ìs≥8.4. In the hazardous zone of the forecasted earthquake
falls near-boundary regions Bangladesh (Chittagong), India (Mizoram),
Myanmar (Arakan) (Lat 21-23 deg N).
Mega-earthquake will cause strong waves of the
Tsunami. |
PK=84% PW=84% Ð=71%
PK=71% PW=76% Ð=54%
PK=41% PW=0% Ð=0%
Ð=0%
|
|
| CHINA (North-East). Ìs≥6.6 | ||
|
SS North-Eastern China. Seismoactive region on the northeast of China includes the capital Beijing and the industrial tightly populated provinces. This region is known to seismologists by the fact that here on February 4, 1975 occurred the destructive Haicheng earthquake M=7.3, which was successfully predicted by the Chinese seismologists (2041 dead, but they were rescued hundreds of thousands of lives). But on July 28, 1976 here occurred the catastrophic Tangshan earthquake M=7.8, which on the losses and the human victims is considered as the most devastating in the last 400 years (according to the different estimations it perished from 240000 to 600000 people). Revealed here SS northeastern China relates to badly determined according to our classification. For the analysis of seismic situation we carried out the comparative analysis of real situation in this system with other similar SS, using a property of self-similarity. A. Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥7.8. The situation has not changed, in system calm, is observed only static growth of entropy but so cannot long proceed. Probability of earthquake on entropy above than on energy. The trajectory has increasing deficiency of energy therefore it is expected either activization of earthquakes-indicators or atypical earthquake with Ì=7.8. Studies this system showed that historical earthquakes 1966 (M=7.0), 1969 (M=7.3) and 1975 (M=7.3) on NE of China for 10 years substantially raised the track of the preparation of strong earthquake from M=7.8, which with the great significance of entropy had a scarcity of cumulative energy. The Haicheng earthquake of 1975 was the latter in this series and therefore it is the trigger of the Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Â. Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. Here also situation did not change, in the system calm, only static increase in the entropy is observed. Track as before has a increasing scarcity of cumulative energy; therefore is expected or activation of earthquake-indicators or untypical earthquake from M=7.3. Probability of earthquake high. Ñ. Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Ms<7.3. At present on NE of China continues the preparation of the earthquake M=7.0. Expected activization does not occur, the increase in deficiency of earthquake-indicators energy therefore proceeds. In the system are expected the indicator-earthquakes with magnitudes 5.8-6.0 (let us recall that such earthquakes in densely populated China lead to the destruction and the human victims). Is most dangerous the West and the South of the province Hebei, the bounding area of the provinces Shandong and Henan, the coastal area of the province Jiangsu. After such indicator-earthquakes in system can be prepared strong earthquake with the magnitude M=7.0. Dangerous is potentially the region, situated W-SW from the Bohai sea (south of the province Hebei and the bounding area of the provinces Shandong and Henan). Probability of earthquake high. D. Subsystem East, coastal area. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. There is a scarcity of earthquake-indicators. In the subsystem of seismic calm, the track develops due to the static growth of entropy. Potentially dangerous in the area from Haicheng to Dandong, M=6.8. Probability of earthquake high. Situation will be resolved until mid - 2012. Å. Subsystem West, including Greater Beijing. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ms<7.0. There is a scarcity of earthquake-indicators. In the subsystem seismic calm, track are developed due to a static increase in the entropy. Occurs the preparation of earthquake from M=7.0. It is potentially dangerous in Greater Beijing area and in Gulf Bohayvan. Probability high P=42% (Pk=59%, Pw=71%). Situation will be resolved prior to the end of 2011. It follows from the forecasts given above that as a whole on the northeast of China in the next two years will occur the earthquake from M>6.6. |
PK=15% PW=31% Ð=0.5%
PK=70% PW=81% Ð=57%
PK=84% PW=88% Ð=74%
PK=70% PW=82% Ð=57%
PK=59% PW=71% Ð=42% |
|
| EGYPT-ISRAEL, Jordan,Lebanon,Syria,Saudi Arabia ). Ìs≥6.6 | ||
|
SS
Egypt-Israel.
Revealed here
SS Egypt-Israel includes Sinai peninsula and
transform-fault zone
(Agaba-Levant
fault), which is stretched from the Red Sea
in the south to Syria on the north. It includes the seismoactive
territories of Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon,
Syria and Saudi Arabia. The revealed here seismic system and subsystems,
which respons to the
strong earthquakes it relates to badly determined
according to our
classification. For their analysis we used the
property of
self-similarity. Are here known historical strong earthquakes (May
1202 and November 1759, M=7.5). After publication of
the Bulletin
003 from September 17,
2010 in system there were
specifications.
Â.
Forecast earthquakes
with
6.9≤Ms<7.3.
At present earthquakes from
6.9≤Ms<7.3 are not
expected.
The
probability of such earthquakes is equal to zero
P=0%
(Pk=0%,
Pw=17%).
The
track develops at the expense of static
production of entropy. Activization of earthquakes-indicators
is expected. |
PK=87% PW=63% Ð=55%
PK=4.8% PW=2.5% Ð=0.1% |
|
| Central USA,Illinois,Missouri,Arkansas,Tennessee,Kentucky,Indiana. Ìs≥5.1 | ||
|
SS New Madrid. This SS includes seismic zones New Madrid and Wabash Valley, located in the border zone of the states Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Indiana (central area of USA). This anomalous intraplate seismoactive zone is known by the fact that in 1811 (on December 16, M7.3, M7.0) and 1812 (on January 23, M7.1 on February 7, M7.4) here occurred the flash of the cascade of devastating earthquakes. It is important to note that these events, which occurred in 2 monthly intervals closely each other, are interconnected, but they are the separate earthquakes, timed to the different branches of faults. At the beginning operated southwestern branch, then northeastern with the mechanisms of right strike-slip. These events as a result led to the thrust in the central segment, which is stretched transversely to first two. Nature of this seismic activity explains by the fact that here the earth's crust hides relict rift zone (Reelfoot of rift), which weakens the earth's crust and periodically it leads to accumulation and discharging of stresses. Now this zone is manifested in essence by the weak seismicity of Ì<4.0 but periodically proceed the moderate earthquakes with the magnitudes from 5 to 6, which present danger. It interests together with the forecast of these moderate earthquakes, seismologists, when here occurs strong earthquake from M>7.0 will be able it will be repeated the pattern of almost 200 summer remotenesses. Let us try to answer these questions on the basis of the method of seismic entropy. A. Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥7.0. At present earthquakes with Ìs≥7.0 are not expected. Revealed SS New Madrid and its subsystems make it possible to restore and to describe the possible scenario of the cascade of devastating earthquakes 1811-1812 yrs. and to extrapolate them to the future. In contrast to other SS here (in intraplate SS) seismic processes weak and proceed considerably slower. As a result the process of the preparation of catastrophic earthquakes is extended by several centuries. On the language of the method of seismic entropy in the northern and southern subsystems of this system for a period of several centuries simultaneously occurred the preparation of two earthquakes from M=7.0-7.3. Track thus far with the high values of entropy had substantial low value of cumulative energy what is the consequence of the absence of earthquakes with 6.0<M<7.0. Three strong earthquakes 1811 and 1812 yrs. in two months substantially raised the track of the preparation of catastrophic earthquake in SS New Madrid, after completing the scarcity of cumulative energy they led on February 7, 1812 to the earthquake from M=7.4. At present the value of cumulative energy in the system it is equal to 14.0, and entropy - 16.8. With the present growth rate in the entropy only by 2060 the entropy will exceed value of 18, after which are possible the earthquakes with Ì>7.0. Because of the absence of earthquakes from M6.0-7.0, evidently the scenario of the cascade of earthquakes will be repeated after 2060, can change only time interval in 2 months. Â. Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥5.1 (Mb≥5.4). At present before 2036 earthquakes with Ìs≥5.1 are not expected. The probability of this earthquake is now on the northeast of system equal to P=0%, and for southwest P=0.3% (the border zone of Missouri-Arkansas-Tennessee). By 2036 there can be prepared moderate earthquake with Mb=5.7. |
|
|
| VRANCEA, ROMANIA. Ìs≥5.8 | ||
|
SS Vrancea. This miniature SS has the sizes of 40x80 km and a depth of 180 km it is included the deep-focus (70-180 km) seismoactive zone of Vrancea in Rumania, where periodically occur strong earthquakes (on November 10, 1940, M7.7; on March 4, 1977, M7.4; on August 30, 1986, M7.1; on May 30, 1990, M6.9). These earthquakes are dangerous by the fact that can cause destruction and the victims not only in Romania, but also in the extensive territory of the countries of South-Eastern Europe. The seismic intensity from such deep-focus earthquake in Moscow can reach 5-6 balls. Taking into account the increased interest in this zone, we estimated times and magnitudes of the expected strong earthquakes on the basis of the method of seismic entropy. A. Forecast earthquakes with Ì≥7.3. In the system occurs the preparation of catastrophic earthquake from M=7.4, on the scenario of close one to the earthquake of 1977. Track has the sufficiently high of the value of cumulative energy, but a scarcity of entropy. This means that for the generation of catastrophic earthquake today the zone of Vrancea on the time yet did not mature. At present the earthquake from M≥7.3 is not expected for this reason. With the present growth rate in the entropy the devastating earthquake with the magnitude of M=7.4 can be prepared toward the end 2014 at the depths of 80-100 km. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 probability of strong earthquake has increased on 0.1% (by entropy on 1%), by 2015 it will grow to P=1.7% (Pk=14%, Pw=13%). Â. Forecast earthquakes with 6.3≤Ms<7.3. At present earthquakes from 6.3<Ì<7.3 are not expected, but the state unstable. The probability of earthquake with 6.3<Ì<7.3 now P=13% (Pk=26%, Pw=50%). Probability of the generation of strong earthquake for the depths of 80-100 km high P=11% (Pk=26%, Pw=43%), and for the depths of 100-150 km low P=1% (Pk=7%, Pw=15%). At these depths, by 2012 can be prepared the earthquake from M=6.4. Ñ. Forecast earthquakes with 5.8≤Ms<6.3. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 probability arthquakes with 5.8<Ì<6.3 has increased on 2%, by entropy on 5%, state in system the dangerous. For last year occurred only static entropy increase that has gradually resulted a track in an unstable condition. Earthquake with Ì=5.9-6.0 is already prepared, and to the beginning of 2012 magnitude of expected earthquake to increase to Ì=6.4. |
PK=14% PW=5% Ð=0.7%
PK=26% PW=50% Ð=13%
PK=29% PW=75% Ð=22% |
|
| HAITI, Dom.Rep.,Cuba(S),Jamaika(E). Ìs≥7.0 (monitoring is from February 1, 2010) | ||
|
Forecast earthquakes with Ì≥7.0. The latter of catastrophic earthquake dated Jan 12, 2010, M7.2, Port au Prince, took away the life of more than 250 thous. pep. The retrospective forecast of this earthquake see Communication dated Jan 31, 2010. Currently in this system the earthquake with M≥7.0 are not expected. |
PK=0% PW=0.2% Ð=0% |
|
| CHILE, Argentina, Bolivia. Ìs≥7.8 (monitoring is from March 25, 2010) | ||
|
Mega SS CHILE. This system is largest seismic system of world, revealed by us; it has an extent of more than 3000 km. Attractor for this mega-system it has the highest values of cumulative energy of earthquake-indicators and entropy. In this system, in the south of central Chile, on May 22, 1960 occurred the strongest of known earthquakes in the world, M=9.5. Chilean earthquake (19:11:20) on May 22 1960, M=9.5, had 4 strong foreshocks from M>7.0, strongest of which occurred on May 21, M=7.9 and many aftershocks occurred, with 5 of magnitude 7.0 or greater. Extensive destruction was in Concepcion, Valdivia and Puerto Montt area, many small cities and villages were practically destroyed. Were observed massive landslides, violent volcanic eruptions and extensive deformations of the earth's surface. The formed waves of tsunami caused destruction and victim along the coastline of Chile, into Hawaii, Japan and along the coasts in the entire zone of Pacific Ocean. Retrospective. In the MSS of Chile we made a retrospective forecast Concepcion-Valparaiso earthquake, February 27, 2010, M=8.8, which had a plane of slip 600x100 km. The trajectory of the preparation of this catastrophic earthquake, which started after the Chilean earthquake of 1960, 49 years it was located in the steady zone out of the attractor and only to the middle of 2009 it approached the attractor. There was already by July 2009 prepared and it was expected strong earthquake from M=8.8, which occurred after 7 months. The distinctive feature tracks training earthquake in MSS of Chile is that they accumulate a very high values of cumulative energy earthquakes-indicators before closer to attractor and approaching a zone of instability on the left. I.e. tracks almost 98-99% of time were in steady state. The track of Chilean earthquake on May 22, 1960 had improbably high values of cumulative energy and entropy. The average period frequency is 44 years. Until February 27 the probability of earthquake from Ms≥8.5 in the system was high P=79.24% (Pw=82.90%, Pk=95.60%).
À.
Forecast earthquakes
with
Ì≥8.5.
At present
earthquakes from Ì≥8.5
are not expected.
The probability of earthquake in system
starts to grow
Ð=0.02% (PK=5%,
PW=0.3%).
From the beginning of 2011 in system it was active enough, there
were earthquake-indicators with
Ì=6.7÷7.1. Ñ. Subsystem North of Chile. Forecast earthquakes with 7.8≤Ms<8.0. The track is in attractor, in system was active. After publication of the Bulletin 003 from September 17, 2010 probability of earthquake with 7.8≤Ms<8.0 has increased on 2% (PK on 2%, PW on 5%). To end 2011 will be dangerous in 150 km to the coastal zone of Chile South of Antofagasta (see Fig.1). At the seismic activation here can occur strong earthquake from M=7.8.
D.
Subsystem
South of Chile.
Forecast earthquakes
with
7.8≤Ms<8.0.
At present
earthquakes from
Ì≥7.8
are not expected.
For to intensive seismic activity from the
beginning of 2011 the probability of earthquake in system has
essentially grown
Ð=3.8% (PK=55%,
PW=7%).
The track will come nearer to attractor in
three years. D2. Subsystem South of Chile. South. Forecast earthquakes with 7.1≤Ms<7.8. This subsystem supervises coastal areas of the South of Chile, including provinces Maule, Bio-Bio, Araucania and Los Lagos. Probability of earthquakes with 7.1≤Ms<7.8 in system high Ð=38% (PK=77%, PW=50%), but more low than in the North. Because of high value of energy a situation now not dangerous, the track will come nearer to attractor only after three years. |
PK=49% PW=46% Ð=22%
PK=55% PW=7% Ð=3.8%
PK=86% PW=83% Ð=71%
PK=77% PW=50% Ð=38% |
|
| PUERTO-RICO, Virgin Islands. Ìs≥6.9 (monitoring is from March 31, 2010) | ||
|
SS Puerto Rico. This system occupies the local region east of SS Haiti on the northeast of Caribbean plate with the size of 550x250 km. Tectonics it is caused by complex interaction Caribbean plate with the North American plate, system includes the Puerto Rico Trench and the Virgin Islands Trough. Puerto Rico and Virgin islands are situated on the micro plate-block, that are located between the downbent parts of the major plates. Strongest earthquakes in SS: 1787, M8.1 (Puerto Rico Trench), 1867, M7.5 (Anegada Trough), 1918, 7.5 (Mona Canyon), 1943, M7.8 (Northern Mona Passage). All these earthquakes generated the strong waves of tsunami. SS Puerto Rico relates to badly determined according to our classification. There is one reliable completed cycle - this is the preparation the 1943 earthquake. Forecast earthquakes with Ì≥6.9. Situation in the system dangerous, on the north of Puerto Rico is expected strong earthquake from M=7.3-7.5. Probability of earthquake high P=81% (Pw=96%, Pk=85%). The last track of the preparation of strong earthquake started after earthquake 1943. At the present time track on the entropy has long ago exceeded the point of instability 1943, and on the cumulative energy there is an essential scarcity. Apparently, strong earthquake from M>7.3 will occur after earthquakes from M=6.5-6.9, whose probability is also high. |
PK=85% PW=96% Ð=81% |
|
| MEXICO NW, Baja California, Gulf of California. Ìs≥6.6 (monitoring is from April 5, 2010) | ||
|
À. SS Baja California, FORECAST, Ms≥6.6. For the development of boundaries this system we studied the seismic zone, which is stretched to the southeast into the Gulf of California. Seismicity is here caused by interaction of Pacific Ocean plate with North American plate. The boundary of plates consists of a series right-lateral transform faults of North Western orientation, which are stretched from the south of Gulf California to Salton Sea Trough in South California, where terminate San Andreas Fault. These faults are disconnected by the spreading centers with the high heat fluxes. Retrospective. In SS Baja California we made a retrospective forecast of Sierra El Mayor Earthquake on April 4, 2010. The trajectory of the preparation of this strong earthquake started after the earthquake on October 17, 1979 and toward the end 2009 it was located below attractor. Earthquake-indicator dated December 30, 2009, M=5.8 raised track, it fell into the zone close to the unstable region for the Imperial Fault . Earthquake occurred on 4 April, 50 km is southwestern than the Imperial Fault, on the parallel Laguna Salada Fault. On the Laguna Salada Fault in the system occurred historical earthquake on February 23, 1892, M=6.9; however, its trajectory to us was unknown. For this reason the retrospective forecast of the place of earthquake - Fault Imperial or Laguna Salada. The distinctive feature of the tracks preparation of strong earthquakes in SS Baja California is that they have relatively low values of cumulative energy with the high values of entropy. Until April 4 the probability of earthquake from Ms≥6.6 in the system was high Ð=50.90% (PW=83.74% PK=60.77%). Thus, a strong earthquake, preparation of which lasted 29 years, it was possible to expect since the beginning of 2010 on the Imperial Fault or Laguna Salada Fault. Now in the system it is not dangerous, earthquakes from M≥6.6 are not expected. Probability of earthquake in system Ð=0.03% (PK=0.3%, PW=11%) Â. SS Gulf of California, FORECAST, Ms≥6.6. System is stretched on the Gulf of California by 900 km and has a width of 300 km. The strongest earthquakes have magnitudes 6.9-7.0. Is outlined migration in time of earthquakes with M≥6.6 from southeast to northwest. Last strong earthquake occurred on August 3, 2009, M=6.9. The probability in the system before this earthquake was equal Ð=41% (PW=81% PK=51%). Now in the system it is not dangerous, earthquakes from M≥6.6 are not expected, Ð=0%. |
PK=0.3% PW=11% Ð=0.03% |
|
| CAYMAN ISLANDS,Belize,Guatemala(E),Gonduras(N),Cuba (SW),Jamaika(W). Ìs≥6.6 (monitoring is from May 1,2010) | ||
|
SS CAYMAN ISLANDS. This system is an extended area west of the SS Haiti in the northwest Caribbean plate up to the center of Guatemala with size of 1400x250 km. Tectonics due to interaction Caribbean plate with the North American plate on the Cayman Trench. The system includes left strike-slip faults: Motagua fault, Swan Fault, Walton Fault, Oriente Fault, separated by the Cayman spreading centre. Strongest earthquakes in SS: 1917, M7.4 (Oriente Fault), 1941, M7.1 (Jamaica SW), 1976, M7.5 (Guatemala), 2009, M7.2 (Honduras).
A. Forecast earthquakes
with Ì≥7.0.
At present
earthquakes from Ì≥7.0
are not expected,
Ð=0.1% (Pk=2%,
Pw=5%).
The track comes nearer to attractor.
The probability starts to increase. |
PK=67% PW=43% Ð=29% |
|
| PERU, Ecuador (south), Brazil (W). Ìs≥7.3 (monitoring is from May 20,2010) | ||
|
SS of PERU. This system is located north of the SS Chili, includes Peru, southern Ecuador and western Brazil, has the size 2000x750 km. Tectonics caused subduction of oceanic Nazca plate beneath the South American plate at a velocity of 8 cm/yr. In SS Peru subduction has some features: the classical subduction zone with the plane dipping 30° is located in the southern Peru (manifested deep focus seismicity and active volcanism), and flat subduction in central-northern areas of Peru, the Nazca plate at a depth of 100 km passes in a horizontal state (there is no deep focus seismicity and active volcanism). Strongest earthquakes in SS: 1868, M9.0 (southern Peru, killed thousands people), 1942, M8.1 (off the coast of central Peru), 1966, M8.1 (off the coast from Callao, claimed about 125 lives), 1970, M7.8 (west of Chimbite, 50,000 people killed), 1974, M7.9 (Lima area), 2001, M8.2 (Arequipa-Camana-Tacna area, 150 people killed), 2007, Ì8.0 (Pisco, central Peru, 514 people killed). À. Forecast earthquakes with Ì≥7.8. Track approaches an attractor. In system deficiency of energy of the earthquakes-indicators, equal to energy of earthquake with Ì6.6 remains. Activization of earthquakes is expected. If there will be an earthquake with Ì=6.6 the track can get to a zone of instability for coastal area in the central Peru from Trujillo to Chimbote where there can be a strong earthquake with Ì7.8. Such condition will remain the next two years. Since September 2010 probability of earthquake with Ì=7.8 has increased by 1% (1%, 5% ) and is now equal Ð=3% (PK=14%, PW=19%). B. Subsystem SOUTH PERU. Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. Track is located under the attractor, there is a scarcity of energy of earthquake- indicators equal to energy of earthquake M=6.7. Situation is unstable. In the near half a year is expected the activation of earthquake-indicators with M=6.5-7.0. At the present time the probability of earthquake from 7.3≤Ms7.8 is equal to Ð=12% (PK=23%, PW=51%). Is potentially dangerous in the coastal zone in the south of Peru from Molendo to Puerto De Lomas, M=7.4. C. Subsystem CENTRAL PERU. Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. Track is located out of the attractor, earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8 in the Central Peru are not expected. At the present time the probability of earthquake with 7.3≤Ms<7.8 is equal to Ð=0.2% (Pk=2%, Pw=8%). D. Subsystem NORTH PERU. Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. Track is located out of the attractor, earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8 are not expected. At the present time the probability of earthquake with 7.3≤Ms<7.8 is equal to Ð=0.05% (PK=1.8%, PW=2.8%). On the north of Peru possible the deep-focus earthquake with H=110-120 km and Ì=7.0-7.1. |
PK=14% PW=19% Ð=3%
PK=23% PW=51% Ð=12%
|
|
| MEXICO (Central). Ìs≥7.3 (monitoring is from June 1,2010) | ||
|
SS MEXICO. This system is located in the coastal zone on the southwest of Mexico, includes the territories of states Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero, Oaxaca, has sizes 1100x350 km. Tectonics it is caused by subduction of the ocean plats Rivera (2 cm/yr) and Cocos (4.6 cm/yr) under the North American plate on the Middle American Trench. In SS Mexico as in SS Peru predominates flat subduction. Cocos Plate is immersed at the angle of 10-20° in the northeastern direction and at the depth of 80 km converts to horizontal state. As a result this in 200-300 km to the zone of seismic activity in central Mexico is absent deep-focus seismicity and active volcanism. Strongest earthquakes in SS: 1907, M8.1 (Guerrero Coast), 1932, M8.1 (Jalisco-Colima Coast, fatalities 45), 1941, M8.1 (Michoacan Coast), 1957, M7.8 (Guerrero, 68 people killed), 1978, M7.9 (Oaxaca), 1985, M8.2 (Michoacan Coast, 9500 people killed), 1995, Ì8.0 (Colima, Manzanillo, 58 people killed). Mega SS Mexico, Ìs≥8.2. For the forecast Mega earthquakes Mexico responsible for preparation of catastrophic earthquakes with Ìs≥8.2 has been allocated Mega SS. Such earthquakes concern 1907, M8.2 (Guerrero Coast), 1932, M8.4 (Jalisco-Colima Coast, fatalities 45), 1985, M8.2 (Michoacan Coast, 9500 people killed). The mega-earthquake forecast is in detail stated in the Communication from May 31, 2011. There it is shown that the next five years in the central Mexico the cascade of strong earthquakes with Ì=7.2-7.9 is expected. After such activization mega-earthquake preparation in the central Mexico by 2016 is possible. By this time the probability of mega-earthquake is equal Ð=24% (PK=50%, PW=49%). A. Forecast earthquakes with Ì≥7.8. Situation in the system remains critical, track is located in attractor. It is dangerous in the coastal zone in the south-southwest of Oaxaca, here is expected strong earthquake with M=7.9. There is a scarcity of energy equal to energy of earthquake-indicator M=7.2. Most likely earthquake will be trigger or will have strong foreshock M=7.2. We prolong term of realisation of such earthquake till the end of 2012. Depending on the development of seismicity the danger can migrate into the coastal zone of Acapulco (state Guerrero). At the present time the probability of earthquake M=7.9 high and is equal to Ð=57% (PK=70%, PW=82%). B. Subsystem RIVERA (includes the states of Jalisco and Colima). Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. There is a scarcity of energy of earthquake- indicators. In the coming years not dangerous, if activation earthquakes-indicators will not. At the present time the probability of earthquake with 7.3≤Ms<7.8 is equal to Ð=0.05% (Pk=0.9%, Pw=4.8%). Dangerous for the earthquake with M=7.4 is potentially the west of state Jalisco. C. Subsystem MICHOACAN (includes the state of Michoacan and NE area of state Guerrero). Forecast earthquakes with 7.3≤Ms<7.8. Track is located in the attractor. It is potentially dangerous in the coastal zone in the West of state Michoacan, where can be prepared earthquake with M=7.4 due to only static increase in the entropy. At the present time the probability of earthquake 7.3≤Ms<7.8 high and is equal to Ð=60% (PK=77%, PW=77%). D. Subsystem OAXACA (includes the Central and SE parts of state Guerrero and state Oaxaca). Forecast earthquakes with 7.2≤Ms<7.8. Track is located below attractor, state unstable, there is a scarcity of energy of earthquake-indicators. With relative seismic gap it is dangerous in the south-southwest of Oaxaca (west of Salina Cruz), where can be prepared strong earthquake with M=7.5. If seismic activity, the danger may migrate in the SE part of Guerrero. At the present time the probability of earthquake 7.3≤Ms<7.8 is equal to Ð=3% (PK=6%, PW=49%). E. Subsystem PUEBLA (includes the states of Puebla and Veracruz). Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Ms<7.8. Situation in subsystem very dangerous, prepared and expected strong earthquake with M=7.2, with the depth about 80-90 km. The track has the maximum values of energy and entropy and can occur in the near future. Most likely earthquake will occur in the next months in the Cordoba-Serdan-Tehuacan triangle. The last time here such strong earthquake occurred on August 28, 1973. Then more than 600 people perished, thousand remained without the roof, extensive destruction was in the states Morales, Puebla and Veracruz. At the present time the probability of earthquake 7.3≤Ms<7.8 high and is equal to Ð=73% (PK=85%, PW=86%). |
PK=50% PW=49% Ð=24%
PK=70% PW=82% Ð=57%
PK=0.9% PW=4.8% Ð=0.05%
PK=77% PW=77% Ð=60%
PK=6% PW=49% Ð=3%
PK=85% PW=86% Ð=73%
|
|
| MID-ASIA (Uzbekistan,Tajikistan,Kyrgyzstan,S Kazakhstan,NW China Ms≥6.5 (monitoring is from December 1,2010) | ||
|
Updated |
SS MID-ASIA. This system includes eastern Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, NW China, NE Afghanistan, has dimensions 1400x800 km. Tectonics and seismicity are explained by the collision of Indian and Eurasian plates in the region of Pamir and Tien Shan. Here is a compression of the crust in the North-South direction. As a result of collision in the eastern Pamir was formed Tarim microblock, are displaced to the east, which is in the south borders with Tibet. To NE system is allocated a seismoactive block of Issyk Kul, which borders Kazakhstan platform and with the Kyrgyz Basin. Is dominated by thrust, reverse processes with weak right strike-slip components. The entire system with a SE to NW crosses the right strike-slip Talas Fergana Fault. To the west of Pamir was formed the Tajik Basin, displacing to the west, and the Fergana Basin deformable by the result of counterclockwise rotation. Both these blocks are converted to the west in the Turan platform. The strongest earthquakes in the SS: 1887, M7.3 (Vernenskoe, 332 killed), 1889, M8.3 (Chilic), 1902, M7.8 (Kashgar), 1907, M8.1 (Kartag, 12,000 were killed), 1911, M8.2 (Kemin, 390 killed), 1946, M7.6 (Chatkal), 1949, M7.4 (Haitsk, 28,000 were killed), 1974, M7.3 (Markansuysk), 1976, Ì7.0, Ì7.3 (Gazley), 1978, M7.1 (Zhalanash-Tyup), 1984, M7.1 (Gazley), 1985, M7.4 (NW China, Wuqia-Shufu, 71 deaths), 1992, M7.3 (Suusamirsk).
SS GAZLEY, Ms>7.0. Now in SS the strong earthquake is not expected. Retrospective analysis Gazley Earthquakes in 1976 (1976.04.08, M=7.0, 1976.05.17, M=7.3) showed that they were prepared to tectonics in the SS Mid Asia and the subsystem Gazley. Decisive role played by the earthquake-indicators 1929 and 1935 for 47 years before the main shock. As a result of counterclockwise rotational motion Uzbek platform (within the Turan) in the area Gazley formed high right lateral shear stresses. Curiously, that the disruptive Tashkent earthquake of 1966, M=5.2 is one of the links (was earthquake-indicator), the beginning of the last stage of preparation Gazley earthquakes of 1976. Thus, the preparation Gazley earthquakes began in the years 1929-1935, then came the 31 years gap prior to 1966 and from 1966 to 1973 began the final stage of preparation. Our studies show that the preparation Gazley earthquakes in 1976 the Semipalatinsk explosions are not involved, but the injection of water in natural gas production could contribute to the formation of the main rupture near Gazley. Pumping gas in this way could also reflect on the specific release of tectonic energy portions in the form of a double earthquake. Studies on the energy diagram shows that by 1976 had accumulated more power and expected a stronger earthquake than had happened. The decrease of seismic energy could be due to water injection, and in part the energy remains in the form of residual strain. In contrast to 1976, training Gazley earthquake in 1984 occurred in the local area and had a purely local significance, it was provoked by the exploitation of gas fields, resulting in residual stresses found an outlet in the form of a strong earthquake. To reinforce the results of the SS Gazley we get close to it in terms of tectonic SS San Bernardino in Southern California and a comparative analysis of track and power diagrams. SS San Bernardino is located northeast of the San Andreas Fault and covers the Mojave Desert. Here in 1992 there was a strong earthquake with M=7.4, followed in 1999 with M=7.1. Faulting in the sources were removed from each other by 20-30 km. It also began preparing in advance, since 1948, and then for 38 years until 1986 was a gap, and the last stage of training began in the last 7 years. In the case of earthquakes Gazley between 1976 and 1984 was 7.8 years, in the case of San Bernardino between 1992 and 1999 was 7.3 years. Track diagrams and the instability areas in both of SS is very close. On the basis of seismic entropy method can be predicted, that within the SS Gazley in the platform area since 1929 began a cycle of active deformation processes that are critical for the accumulation of entropy would lead to disruption, faulting. Approximate time when this could happen would be "predicted" using data from SS San Bernardino, but if these data were not.
Mega SS MID-ASIA. Forecast earthquakes with Ì≥7.5. Mega SS Central Asia treats the category of badly defined. The last mega earthquake Kemin from January, 4th 1911, M8.2 in area Almaty (rupture in the source reached 200 km). Preparation of new mega earthquake in system also begins with this date. On a configuration the track is very similar to a track of preparation of mega-earthquake in California (see the Communication from May 9, 2011). Now the track has coordinates K=17.256, W=19.962. This value is between mega-tracks of California and Kamchatka (see the Communication from May 31, 2011). By analogy to other mega-tracks on the basis of strong earthquake-indicators we have calculated area of instability K=0.644W+4.366. At relative seismic calm the track will reach critical value of entropy Wk=20,002 in the beginning of 2015. So, considering uncertainty, we can consider that in 2014-2016 in area Almaty mega-earthquake with Ì=8.2-8.3 can be prepared.
À.
SS
MID-ASIA.
Forecast earthquakes
with
Ì≥7.5.
The situation in the
system dangerous, the track is in the
attractor.
Danger 130 km
east-northeast of Dushanbe, on the border with Kyrgyzstan, near the
focal zone Haitsk earthquake in 1941, (South Gissar Fault). There in
2011-2012 can be prepared a strong earthquake with M=7.5.
Potentially dangerous to the west of Tajikistan in a zone 70
km south of Dushanbe
(Darvaz-Karakul
Fault).
After implementation of a strong earthquake in the west of
Tajikistan can begin a new cycle of earthquake with
M=8.2 near Lake Issyk Kul, which
would pose a threat and for Almaty.
Estimated this could happen in 2014-2015
or later,
but monitoring of
real preparation such event we will make in mega-system (see above).
At present ,
the probability of strong earthquakes in a
system with M≥7.5 is high and equal to
Ð=66%
(Pk=75%,
Pw=89%).
After publication of this Bulletin, on
July 19,
2011 in system there was an earthquake-indicator with Ì=6.3 and the
probability has jumped up Ð=69%
(Pk=77%, Pw=89%). Â3. In the subsystem West Tajikistan dangerous on the SE of Dushanbe in area of the historical Kartag earthquake in 1907 (Darvaz-Karakul Fault), M7.3, the probability is high.
C. SS MID-ASIA. Forecast earthquakes with 6.5≤Ms<7.1.
Ñ1.
Subsystem Kyrgyzstan-South Kazakhstan.
In a subsystem the situation continues to
remain dangerous. In the northeast from Issyk of the Sack, 75 km to
the east of Almaty, on border with Kazakhstan can be prepared
earthquake with Ì=6.5 (close to the focal area
Baysorun earthquake November 12, 1990). In
Almaty, the intensity of this earthquake can be up to VI
balls. The track has deficiency of the
earthquake-indicators energy, equal to energy of earthquake with
Ìs=5.6 (Mw
or mb=5.8).
Such earthquakes can serve as the trigger, foreshock expected
earthquake with Ì=6.5. Recent activization (01.05.2011, Mw=5.4, 76
km NE from Almaty) was energetically insufficient for excitation of
strong earthquake. After December 2010
probability of earthquake with
6.5≤Ms<7.1 has grown on
2% (by
energy on 1%,
by entropy on 1%).
Last earthquake from July 19, 2011, Ì=6.3 we have accepted as
earthquake-indicator. It has filled above-mentioned deficiency of
energy and has changed a situation in SS. The probability on energy
has jumped up Ð=71% (Pk=88%,
Pw=80%). Till March 2012
in the northeast from Issyk Kul, 75 km to the
east of Almaty, on border with Kazakhstan can be prepared earthquake
with Ì=6.5. C3. Subsystem West Tajikistan. In the subsystem West Tajikistan dangerously near Garm, where the next two years, when activated earthquake-indicators may be prepared by an earthquake with M=6.5. The probability of this earthquake is now Ð=11% (Ðk=31%, Pw=36%). |
PK=77% PW=89% Ð=69%
PK=83% PW=87% Ð=72%
PK=88% PW=80% Ð=71%
PK=31% PW=36% Ð=11% |
| EAST TIEN-SHAN (prov. Xinjiang, NW China, SE Kazakhstan). Ìs≥7.0 (monitoring is from March 1,2011) | ||
|
SS East TIEN-SHAN. This system includes a province Xinjiang (capital Urumchi) on NW China, and partially territory of SE Kazakhstan, has the sizes 1000õ500 km. The tectonics and seismicity are caused by collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates in area Tien Shan and formation of right-lateral faults. SS Tien Shan there is between systems Mid-Asia and Altai. The strongest earthquakes in the SS: 1906, M7.9 (Northern Xinjiang, Dzhungarian right lateral strick-slip fault), 1944, Ì=7.2 (Northern Xinjiang), 1949, Ì=7.3 (Southern Xinjiang). À. Forecast earthquakes with Ì≥7.0. The system is classified as badly defined, we have only one fairly complete the cycle for the earthquake of 1944. Now the track far exceeded the instability of this earthquake. Considering our experience we can conclude that in system earthquake with Ì>7.3 is already prepared, however there is some deficiency of earthquake-indicators. Earthquake can occur in the next 2-3 years. The probability of earthquake is high.
B. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ì<7.0. The subsystem belongs to the class badly defined. A situation in system unstable, despite the low probability, in the system is dangerous. Any moderate earthquake-indicator with Ì=6.2-6.4 can raise stronger earthquake with Ì=6.7. Can be dangerous in area of Urumchi. |
PK=69% PW=77% Ð=53%
PK=0.01% PW=0.7% Ð=0% |
|
| ALTAI (Altaisk Kray, Tuva RF, W Mongolia, E Kazakhstan, NW China). Ìs≥6.6 (monitoring is from March 1,2011) | ||
|
SS ALTAI. This system includes the Altaisk Kray, Tuva (RF), western Mongolia, NW China, and partially territory of eastern Kazakhstan, has the sizes 1200õ1000 km. The tectonics and seismicity are caused by collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates in area of Altai, Gobi-Altai and Sayan Range, formation of right and left-lateral faults. SS Altai is the north-east of the SS East Tien Shan. The strongest earthquakes in the SS: 1761, Ì=8.2 (Er Hutel), 1905, Ì=8.0 (Tsetserleg) è Ì=8.3 (Bolnay), 1931, Ì=8.0 (Fu Yum), 1957, Ì=8.1 (Gobi Altay), 1970, Ì=7.0 (Ureg Nur), 2003, Ì=7.3 (Gorno-Altaisk). À. Forecast earthquakes with Ìs≥7.8. The system badly defined, there are only two authentic completed seismic cycles. Strong earthquake with Ì≥7.8 in the western Mongolia is expected. The track has exceeded areas of instability of Gobi-Altaisk earthquake of 1957 and the Mongolo-Altaisk earthquake of 1931. On a configuration the track is close to a track preparation Mongolo-Altaisk earthquake. Proceeding from it, we can conclude that the most dangerous to be in the fault zone of historical Mongolian earthquake in 1761 on the structure Ar-Hutel (a northeast slope of Mongolian Altai). To define earthquake time inconveniently, expected magnitude Ì=8.1-8.2. In the territory of Altaisk Kray (Russian Federation) such earthquake could affect the intensity in V-VI balls. The probability of earthquake in the system now is very high and equal to Ð=89.62% (PK=90.56%, PW=98.96%). Â. Forecast earthquakes with 7.0≤Ìs<7.8. The track started after the Gorno-Altaisk earthquake of 2003. While strong earthquakes with 7.0≤Ì <7.8 aren't expected. The probability of such earthquakes is small Ð=0.01% (PK=0.8%, PW=1%). The track approaches to attractor, there is a deficiency of cumulative energy. Activization of earthquake-indicators is expected. Retrospective (prediction of Gorno-Altaisk earthquake of 2003). In this subsystem there was a preparation of last strong Gorno-Altaisk earthquake of 2003. The probability of earthquake in system by September 2003 was very high and equaled to Ð=86.87% (PK=94.14%, PW=92.28%). The track developed 33 years. By 2003 the track passed all areas of instability and came nearer in a zone of instability with the maximum cumulative energy and entropy. It was possible to predict earthquake in a time window 3 months since September 2003. Considering a tectonic situation in SS and the maximum values of a track, strong earthquake it was possible to expect on NW system, in the area of crossing continuations fault zones of earthquakes 1905 and 1931. Note that a basic role in preparation of the Gorno-Altaisk earthquake played Urengursk earthquake 1990, Ì=6.8, in the border region of Kazakhstan with a province Xinjiang (China). Ñ. Forecast earthquakes with 6.6≤Ì<7.0. The probability of such earthquakes is small Ð=3% (PK=16%, PW=19%). Last weak earthquake of 10.02.2011 with Ì=5.3 to the south of Sayanogorsk in Krasnoyarsk Kray has raised probability on 0.8%. The track comes nearer to instability area on the western Mongolia, near to border of Altaisk Kray and Tuva. While there is a deficiency of earthquake-indicators energy. Here strong earthquake may be prepared for the middle of 2012 with Ì=6.7. |
PK=91% PW=99% Ð=90%
PK=0.8% PW=1% Ð=0.01%
PK=16% PW=19% Ð=3% |
|
| BAYKAL (RF) (Irkutsk obl.,Buryatia, Chitinsk obl.). Ìs≥6.6 (monitoring is from July 1, 2011) | ||
|
SS
Baykal.
This system includes the Baykal
region (Russian Federation). Lake Baykal
is in an
middle
part Baykal
rift
zones which has formed in the oligocene beginning - about 40 million
years ago. Trough
of Lake
Baykal,
which roots in the
upper mantle at a
depth of 50-60 km, is the central link
rift
zones. Baykal
rift
zone is the largest in Russia and second-large on a planet. Rift
structures reach 2500 km from northwest Mongolia to southern Yakutia.
The rifting
zone was formed as a result collision of Eurasia with the Indian
plate. Process of Baykal
rifting
proceeds and now, being shown in the raised seismic activity and a
horizontal stretching of earth crust. Coast of Baykal
on a line Irkutsk - Ulan-Ude are moved apart with a speed of 5 mm a
year. In this connection the hypothesis exists the fact that through
hundred millions years Baykal
rift
will split the Euroasian continent. Strong earthquakes in system:
The East-Siberian earthquake on February 1, 1725, Ì=8.2. This
earthquake should be considered as one of the strongest within
Eastern Siberia for all history of its development. The South Baykal
earthquake on June 27, 1742, Ì=7.7. Tsagansk earthquake on
January 12, 1862, Ì=7.5. Tsagansk earthquake became the first
seismic event in Eastern Siberia which consequences were studied at
high enough scientific level. Muysk
earthquake on June 27, 1957, Ì=7.6. Area of Muysk
earthquake,
epicenter
which is dated for the Namarakitsk
trough,
earlier was considered almost aseismatic. As a result of earthquake
there was a
complex
system of seismo-dislocations
in the general extent about 30 km. Owing to
trough subsidence
in it the lake New Namarakit was formed. |
PK=70% PW=70% Ð=49%
PK=87% PW=84% Ð=73%
|
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