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SS East of TURKEY, ARMENIA

I level (reliable).
Length of 1300 km.
Depth 33 km.
Threshold magnitude 6.6.
Monitoring since 1995.
Predicted quakes 2.

Large cities: Erzurum, Erzincan, Malatya, Van, Trabzon, Tokat, Kars, Bingel, Gyumri, Yerevan.

Seismicity is caused by interaction of the Arabian plate with the Eurasian, as a result by which occurs orogenesis and extrusion of Anatolian micro-plate to the West.

Last devastating earthquakes Spitak on December 7, 1988, M=7.0 (with the epicenter in the northwest of Armenia, 40000 peop. it perished) and The Erzincan earthquake on March 13, 1992, M=6.8 (in the east Turkey, it perished 1000 peop.).

Situation in the system after Karakocan earthquake ☼. This earthquake is earthquake-indicator for SS Armenian Upland. To Fig.1a,b is given the fragment of track diagram for SS Armenian Upland on March 8, 2010 (see Communication). Before Karakocan earthquake in the recent 4 months (since November 2009) was accumulated a certain scarcity of energy earthquake-indicators. It is evident from Fig.1 that Karakocan earthquake on March 8, 2010 completed this scarcity and raised track. It proved to be somewhat higher than unstable region for the eastern segment of North Anatolian Fault (NAF):

К=0.857 W +0.560 for east of NAF (1).

Now already track can fall into this zone of instability without the essential seismic activity to the end April 2010.

Let us assume that our parameters are determined with the high accuracy and let us purely mathematically calculate the expected time of strong earthquake from M>6.6. If we accept the magnitude of the Karakocan earthquake M=6.0, then on March 8 the parameter of cumulative energy will be equal K=15.8810. For this parameter according to the formula (1) we calculate the critical value of the entropy Wk=17.8775. On March 8 entropy reached the value W=17.8654, the growth rate in the entropy was equal to 0.0003 per day. Then track reaches the zone of instability in 40 days, on April 17, 2010. If we accept the magnitude of the Karakocan earthquake M=5.9, then track will reach the zone of instability per 8 days, on March 16, 2010. According to these calculations, the most dangerous period comes between on March 15 and April 20, 2010.

Forecast. Karakocan earthquake dated March 8, 2010 is the important and expected component in the preparation of catastrophic earthquake. It occurred in SS not on NAF, but about 90 km southern, on the East Anatolian Fault (EAF). Based on foregoing we add it to the remote foreshock, the trigger of catastrophic earthquake from Ms≥7.7, which is expected on NAF to the end April 2010.

Situation in the seismic system Armenian Upland continues to remain critical. Karakocan earthquake into the province of Elazig in the east of Turkey dated March 8, 2010, M6.0, is the remote foreshock, its kind by the trigger of the expected catastrophe (see Communication dated March 2, 2010). Now catastrophic earthquake on the eastern segment of NAF can occur to the end April 2010. The moderate earthquakes from 5.8<M<6.6 in East Turkey, number of which includes Karakocan, we are not thus far forecast. / March 09, 2010 /

MONITORING WEAK SEISMICITY AND THE FORECAST OF THE MODERATE EARTHQUAKES

Monitoring weak seismicity from M≥3.0 was completed by the earthquake-indicator of Karakocan on EAF in the province of Elazig in the east of Turkey ☼. To Fig.2a is shown the graph of a number of weak earthquakes per day in SS Armenian Upland from the middle December 2009 until March 8, 2010. Since December until February the number of weak quakes increased. As it was noted in the Communication dated March 2, 2010, February 21 it was the peak of seismic activity, and a certain calm was observed since the beginning of March, after which on March 8 occurred earthquake. To Fig.2b is given the diagram of earthquakes from M>3.0 from October 1, 2009 to March 8, 2010 fallen in SS Armenian upland, and cumulative energy of these earthquakes. Before the earthquake dated March 8 cumulative energy was equal to energy of earthquake from M=4.96. The accumulated cumulative energy of weak seismicity and an increase in their frequency in January and February on the SW of system is the reflection of the preparation of Karakocan earthquake.

Is special by the forecast of the earthquake-indicators with 5.8<M<6.6 in SS Armenian Upland, number of which includes Karakocan earthquake dated March 8 in the east of Turkey, we were not occupied. For the forecast of such earthquakes by the method of seismic entropy is necessary the development of subsystems in SS Armenian Upland, responsible for preparation the moderate earthquakes.

Monitoring weak seismicity we produced for purpose of the forecast of weak earthquake-indicator from M5.0-5.2 on the eastern segment of NAF, which could serve as the trigger for the expected strong earthquake. However, in the recent 4 months (since November 2009) track substantially was removed from the zone of instability because of a static increase in the entropy and seismic situation somewhat changed. The Karakocan earthquakes raised the track of the preparation catastrophic earthquake higher than unstable region for the eastern segment of NAF. Now track can fall into the unstable region without the seismic activity; therefore we temporarily (to the end of April) stop monitoring weak seismicity.

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