Situation in seismic system Armenian Upland becomes critical. The probability of the catastrophic earthquake  in the East of Turkey sharply grew after earthquake  from 07.09. 2009, Ì6.1, in NW of Georgia.                                                                          /September 10, 2009/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fig.2. Dynamics of an increase the probability of strong earthquake Ì≥6.6 in SS Armenian Upland on September 10, 2009.

 

 

 

 

 

Fig.1. East of Turkey, West of Armenia. Controlled region of the forecast of earthquakes from M≥6.6 in Armenian Upland. In proportion to the development of trajectory the instability migrated from the zone A into the zone B, where we was expected catastrophic earthquake from M≥7.7. It can occur during any day.

 

 

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SS  East of TURKEY, ARMENIA

Large cities: Erzurum, Erzincan, Malatya, Van, Trabzon, Tokat, Kars, Bingel, Gyumri, Yerevan.

Seismicity is caused by interaction of the Arabian plate with the Eurasian, as a result by which occurs orogenesis and extrusion of Anatolian micro-plate to the West.

Last devastating earthquakes Spitak on December 7, 1988, M=7.0 (with the epicenter in the northwest of Armenia, 40000 peop. it perished) and The Erzincan earthquake on March 13, 1992, M=6.8 (in the east Turkey, it perished 1000 peop.).

 

 

 

MONITORING AND FORECAST

ARMENIAN UPLAND

Ìs≥6.6

In Bulletin 001 were given the forecasts for the strong earthquakes from  Ì≥6.6 in SS Armenian Upland (East of Turkey and West of Armenia, see Fig.1). There it was noted: "Seismic situation in the Armenian uplands very dangerous. It is expected the catastrophic earthquake in eastern Turkey with a magnitude Ms≥7.4. The final date of implementation in 2010. Probability earthquake very high  Ð=94%  (PW=98%, PK=95%)". It was there indicated that one of two scenarios of development was possible: the first - an earthquake could occur south of Mount Ararat at fault SE-NW stretch with Ms=7.4-7.5 (zone À on Fig.1); the second - in eastern North Anatolian fault near the city of Erzincan with Ms=7.8-7.9 (zone B on Fig.1). The probability of the first scenario, over time diminish, and second to increase.

 

After earthquake in Georgia from 07.09.2009 years the situation in the east of Turkey became critical. Trajectory went around all points of the instability of attractor. On September 10, 2009 the probability of strong earthquake from M≥6.6 grew to 95% (on entropy 99%, and on cumulative energy 96%) (see Fig.2).

The magnitude of earthquake is determined according to the law of the seismic entropy production:  

for zone À:   Ês=0.29W +11.16.      In September  W=17.58, then Ks=16.3, expected magnitude  Ìs=7.5.

for zone Â:   Ês=0.71W +  4.06.      In September  W=17.58, then Ks=16.5, expected magnitude  Ìs=7.7.

 

Now the danger of strong earthquake from Ms≥7.7 sharply grew in the zone B (eastern segment of North- Anatolian fault) and it will already remain here to the realization of this catastrophe. Earthquake can occur during any day for a period of several months!!! Based on the method of seismic entropy of the exact time of the earthquake prediction in this case is not possible. We will follow the seismic situation and operationally inform you!